Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). First BUY labels of the week printed -- XLF cv61 and XBI cv55, both PullbackBuy_VWAP -- but both below the 65 adj-conviction floor (XLF short by 4 with a dead/inverted 12wk; XBI short by 10 with a +1.1-ATR-above-close chase entry). Monday's XLE anticipate cv70 head-faked to WATCH cv43 in one session and MAGS lapsed to NO TRADE cv0, both as the prior EOD flagged. Fifth straight session without an executable setup. fully preserved.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 56.05 | WATCH | 55.50 | 54.79 | 56.00 (+0.9%) | 56.05 (+1.0%) | 55.03 (-0.8%) | XLF flipped WATCH->BUY (PullbackBuy_VWAP) with a clean buy-limit @55.50 below the 56.05 close, the book's most reliable buy cell (bias +0) -- but adj cv61 is 4 short of the 65 floor, and the 12wk forward is inverted (E12W 55.03 < close 56.05, SE-2), making even a clearing print a <=4wk tactical scalp with no position case. Not queued. Re-arm at raw cv>=65 with a live below-close limit and a non-inverted 12wk. |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 152.11 | WATCH | 156.92 | 151.87 | 152.75 (-2.7%) | 158.44 (+1.0%) | 161.56 (+3.0%) | XBI printed BUY but fails twice: adj cv55 is 10 below the 65 floor, and its PullbackBuy_VWAP label sits on a buy-STOP @156.92 that is +1.1 ATR ABOVE the 152.11 close -- a +3.2% chase (L1/L4 discount chases), not a pullback. Forward is real (E4W +4.2%, E12W +6.2%) but conviction gates the trade. Not queued. Re-arm at raw cv>=65 with the entry back below close. |
| — | Sector ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). First BUY labels of the week appeared (XLF cv61, XBI cv55, both PullbackBuy_VWAP) but both below the adj-conviction 65 floor -- XLF by 4 with a dead/inverted 12wk, XBI by 10 with a +1.1-ATR-above-close chase entry. XLE decayed anticipate cv70 -> WATCH cv43 and MAGS lapsed to NO TRADE cv0, both as the 07-21 EOD predicted. No held positions (flat gauge book), monitor clean, no open queues to reprice/expire. Valuation blind (all-ETF NA_ETF). fully preserved, 0%. Fifth straight session without an executable setup. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
27 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.