Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). Not a single BUY print in the book -- Tuesday lifted conviction broadly but on WATCH and AVOID rows only, and the strongest print is GLD AVOID cv75, a short this long-only book cannot take. Monday's near-misses decayed (MAGS WATCH, IBB WATCH). The one bullish flip, XLE BUY - ANTICIPATE cv70, is ineligible on 1-of-3 arming and adj 60 after the -10 anticipation-family haircut. Fourth straight session without an executable setup. fully preserved.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 58.50 | BUY-STOP | 58.49 | 55.49 | 58.71 (+0.4%) | 60.08 (+2.7%) | 63.37 (+8.3%) | Energy is the only bullish print in the entire book -- XLE flipped from three straight AVOID sessions to BUY - ANTICIPATE at conviction 70, with the best forward view in the universe (E1W +0.4%, E4W +2.7%, E12W +8.3%) and RSI 64.9 on a 58.50 close. It is still not takeable: the ADR-0012 anticipate slot requires the anticipation print in at least 2 of the last 3 snapshots and XLE has, and the AnticipationUp_VCP family is this book's worst actionable cell (bias -10, n=5, hit their 1wk target), which drops it to adjusted conviction 60, under the 65 floor. Order geometry is also wrong for the slot: the buy-stop @58.49 sits below the 58.50 close, so it would fill at market rather than only on strength. Re-arm trigger: a second consecutive BUY - ANTICIPATE (or an upgrade to BUY) at raw conviction >= 75, which is what clears 65 after the family haircut. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0, quality gate off). |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 66.95 | WATCH | 66.95 | 66.40 | 67.21 (+0.4%) | 67.44 (+0.7%) | 73.78 (+10.2%) | Yesterday's closest call has lapsed rather than re-armed. MAGS was BUY cv67 (adj 64, one point under the floor) on the 07-20 anchor with a standing re-arm at raw cv >= 68; Tuesday it dropped to WATCH cv59 (adj 56) on a flat 66.95 close, so the buy label is gone and the trigger is further away, not closer. Holding it out cost nothing -- the name went 66..95. The 12wk forward (73.78, +10.2%) stays attractive, which is why it remains the name to watch, but the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D family carries a -3 haircut (SE-1, hit_1w 0.333, stop-first 0.667) and L1 says discount these chases. Re-arm unchanged: raw cv >= 68 on the same family, or any PullbackBuy_VWAP print at cv >= 65. |
| — | sectoretf | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | EOD 2026-07-21 verdict: NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). For the first time this month the book prints not a single BUY across all 22 names -- Tuesday lifted conviction scores broadly but almost entirely on WATCH and AVOID rows, and the highest-conviction print in the universe is GLD AVOID cv75, a bearish case this long-only mandate cannot express. Monday's two near-misses both decayed (MAGS BUY67 -> WATCH59, IBB 62 -> WATCH57) instead of re-arming. The one bullish flip, XLE BUY - ANTICIPATE cv70, fails the anticipate slot twice: 1-of-3 arming versus the required 2-of-3, and adjusted conviction 60 after the -10 AnticipationUp_VCP haircut ( graded entries hit their 1wk target). No queues were open into the session, so nothing to reprice or withdraw. Flat gauge book, no held risk, no stop breaches, no trades detected. fully preserved, 0%. Valuation blind (all-ETF NA_ETF, technical-only). Overlay 16 days stale -- refresh overdue. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
27 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.