Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). Monday erased Friday's biotech setup -- XBI collapsed cv69->39 (-2.2%) and IBB faded cv69->62 (-1.7%), voiding both queued starters; the rest of the book is NO TRADE cv0, WATCH-without-trigger, or bearish AVOID. The one floor-adjacent print, MAGS BUY cv67, dies a point short at adj 64 on the -3 FailedBreakdown haircut. Near-misses: MAGS adj 64, IBB adj 62, SKYY WATCH 61. fully preserved.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 66.93 | WATCH | 66.93 | 66.30 | 67.29 (+0.5%) | 67.71 (+1.2%) | 73.71 (+10.1%) | Mega-cap tech is the only floor-adjacent print left in the book -- MAGS re-emerged as BUY cv67 (Buy_Rank 1) with a market entry at the 66.93 close (not extended, dATR -0.0), RSI 52. above EMA20/50/200, and a genuinely positive forward (E1W +0.5%, E4W +1.2%, E12W +10.1%). It is held out purely on the family haircut: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is a weak actionable cell (bias -3, hit_1w 0.333, stop-first 0.667) and L1 says discount these chases, so 67 - 3 = adj 64, one point under the 65 floor. Re-arm trigger: raw cv >= 68 on the same family (the standing rule from the 07-17 systemic note), or an upgrade to a PullbackBuy_VWAP print at any cv >= 65. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0, gate off). |
| IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | 186.53 | WATCH | 189.82 | 185.38 | 187.93 (-1.0%) | 191.79 (+1.0%) | 194.35 (+2.4%) | Biotech still prints the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP but Monday's -1.7% fade knocked conviction, three points under the 65 floor, and the cell is now actionable at a neutral +0 bias (n=6, hit_1w 0.5) so nothing lifts it. Geometry has also turned against it: the live buy-limit @189.82 sits +1.8% above the 186.53 close (dATR +0.86), which is a chase rather than a pullback entry. Held out. Re-arms on a fresh PullbackBuy print at cv >= 65 with the entry at or below the close. |
| — | sectoretf | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | EOD 2026-07-20 verdict: NO ACTION (0 acquire, 0 dispose). Monday erased Friday's biotech setup -- XBI collapsed cv69->39 (-2.2%) and IBB faded cv69->62 (-1.7%), voiding both queued starters, while the rest of the book sits in NO TRADE cv0 (XLF/XLP/QQQ/XLK/SMH/SOXX/AIQ/QTUM), WATCH-without-trigger (SKYY 61, XLV 49, SPY/IWM 44), or bearish AVOID (GLD 61, XLY 56, DXYZ 48, UFO 21 -- long-only). The one floor-adjacent print, MAGS BUY cv67, dies a point short at adj 64 on the -3 FailedBreakdown haircut. Both prior queues withdrawn (IBB would have filled -1.53%, XBI would have filled -2.76%). fully preserved, 0%. Flat gauge book, no held risk, no stop breaches. Valuation blind (all-ETF NA_ETF, technical-only). Overlay 15d stale. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
27 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.