Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 2 (IBB QUEUED buy-limit @189.42 + XBI QUEUED buy-stop @155.23, pending 2026-07-20 open); DISPOSE none. Rotation narrowed into biotech -- the 07-16 below-floor PullbackBuy cluster strengthened, IBB and XBI both clearing the 65 floor on L1-favored prints and confirming sector news, while the prior XLF anticipation buy-stop never filled and collapsed to NO TRADE (withdrawn). Near-misses: XLP adj 63 (FailedBreakdown -3), XLV cv61, SPY/SKYY WATCH, GLD AVOID.
Recommendations
2 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | 189.76 | BUY — QUEUED @189.42 | 189.42 | 185.31 | 192.05 (+1.4%) | 194.89 (+2.9%) | 202.90 (+7.1%) | Biotech firmed into a floor-clearing PullbackBuy: IBB strengthened cv55->69 on an L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP with a positive model forward (E1W +1.4%, E4W +2.9%, E12W +7.1%) and a confirming sector-news read (biotech 1H-2026 rally, rate-cut + clinical/earnings tailwind, IBB +47.8% 1yr). Buy-limit @189.42 below Friday close 189.76 (dATR -0.1, not extended), fills on a small dip. Starter (25% of), stop 185.31 (-2.2%). Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0). QUEUED GTC, executes 2026-07-20 open (L8); reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; expires 2026-07-22. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 154.26 | BUY — QUEUED @155.23 | 155.23 | 149.70 | 154.87 (-0.2%) | 158.19 (+1.9%) | 164.63 (+6.1%) | Biotech's second floor-clearing PullbackBuy: XBI strengthened cv62->69 (L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP), forward E4W +1.9% / E12W +6.1%, confirming sector news (XBI +28.5% YTD / +89% 1yr, rate-cut + clinical catalysts). Buy-STOP @155.23 sits above Friday close 154.26 (dATR +0.2) -- self-limiting, fills only on strength (no-chase-safe). Starter (25% of), stop 149.70 (-3.6%). Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0). QUEUED GTC, executes 2026-07-20 open (L8); reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; expires 2026-07-22. Same biotech theme as IBB -- concentration OK per CLAUDE.md 9 (gauge book). · news |
| XLP | Consumer Staples Select SPDR | 85.19 | WATCH | 85.19 | 84.32 | 85.51 (+0.4%) | 87.41 (+2.6%) | 86.21 (+1.2%) | Fresh BUY cv66 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) but the -3 scorecard haircut on that weakest-actionable buy cell drops adj to 63, below the 65 floor. Near-miss; needs raw cv >=68 to survive the haircut. |
| _PORTFOLIO | sectoretf | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | EOD 2026-07-17 verdict: ACQUIRE 2 biotech starters (IBB gtc-limit @189.42, XBI gtc-stop @155.23), pending 2026-07-20 open; DISPOSE none (flat book). Prior XLF anticipation buy-stop withdrawn (never filled, cv->0). of only if orders trigger, preserved. Valuation blind (all-ETF NA_ETF, technical-only). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
24 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.