Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 1 (XLF QUEUED buy-stop @56.89, pending 07-17 open); DISPOSE none. Rotation cooled a second day -- SPY cv88 anticipation collapsed to NO TRADE, MAGS/QQQ/semis to NO TRADE, and a below-floor PullbackBuy cluster (XBI/DIA/IBB) re-appeared. Only XLF survives the floor; its 07-15 @56.99 buy-stop never triggered and simply reprices to @56.89 -- same self-limiting starter, flat/negative forward, backed by a constructive bank-earnings news read. Near-misses: XBI cv62, DIA cv61, IBB cv55 (PullbackBuy below floor), XLV/XLY WATCH, GLD AVOID.
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 56.75 | BUY — QUEUED @56.89 | 56.89 | 54.73 | 56.76 (-0.2%) | 56.29 (-1.1%) | 55.55 (-2.4%) | Financials remain the book's only actionable print: XLF BUY - ANTICIPATE cv70 (AnticipationUp_VCP), adj 70 clears the 65 floor, backed by a constructive news read -- Q2 S&P-financials EPS poised for +6.6% growth (FactSet), a bullish golden cross (50>200 DMA, first since Dec-2023), and higher-for-longer rates supporting bank NIM. The 07-15 buy-stop @56.99 never triggered (07-16 close 56.75 sat below), so it reprices to the live buy-STOP @56.89 per the provenance rule -- same self-limiting starter that fills ONLY on strength above 56.89 (no-chase-safe; ED +0.19, RSI 71.7<75). Caveat: the model's own point-estimates still sit at/below the trigger (E1W 56.76 -0.2%, E4W 56.29 -1.1%, E12W 55.55 -2.4%) -- a flat/negative forward, so starter size ( = ~25% of). Trade target 61.22 (+7.6%). NA_ETF valuation blind, val_adj 0, gate off. expires 07-21 (anchor+3). Reprice if the 07-17 open gaps >~1.5%; grade from execution (L8). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
24 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.