Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 1 (XLF QUEUED buy-stop @56.99, pending 07-16 open). Consolidation day -- post-CPI rotation cooled, all three 07-14 leaders lost a step (XLF cv76->70, MAGS cv74->63, IBB->WATCH), both prior pullback queues unfilled and withdrawn (MAGS auto, XLF repriced to a live buy-STOP). Only XLF clears the floor and even it has a flat/negative forward -> self-limiting buy-stop starter. Near-misses: SPY cv88 (anticipate 1-of-3), MAGS adj63 (below floor), IBB/XBI/IWM/XLE WATCH, XLV cv54 (neg forward).
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 56.56 | BUY — QUEUED @56.99 | 56.99 | 54.63 | 56.58 (-0.7%) | 56.19 (-1.4%) | 55.08 (-3.4%) | Financials MomentumContinuation_Up, Buy_Rank 1, cv70 (cooled from STRONG BUY cv76) -> adj 70 clears the 65 floor; L1-neutral family (not a FailedBreakdown chase). Not extended (ED +0.55, close 56.56 below the 56.99 buy-stop) but RSI 70.66 warm -> take it as a self-limiting GTC buy-STOP that fills only on strength above 56.99. Caveat: the model's own point-estimates all sit BELOW the trigger (E1W 56.58 -0.7%, E4W 56.19 -1.4%, E12W 55.08 -3.4%) -- flat/negative forward, so starter size (~25% of). Repriced from the stale 07-14 pullback @54.79 (never filled, price ran up) per the provenance rule. Trade target 61.70 (+8.3%). expires 07-20 (anchor+3). NA_ETF valuation blind, val_adj 0. Reprice if the 07-16 open gaps >~1.5%. |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 754.81 | BUY-STOP | 757.37 | 736.55 | 757.15 (-0.0%) | 754.29 (-0.4%) | 757.07 (-0.0%) | Broad S&P AnticipationUp_VCP, cv88 -- the highest conviction print in the book, buy-stop @757.37, ED +0.37. But the anticipate slot needs BUY - ANTICIPATE in >=2 of the last 3 snapshots; SPY printed it in only 1 (NO TRADE->WATCH->ANTICIPATE) -> INELIGIBLE, a single fresh anticipation print. Re-arms to the anticipate slot if it prints ANTICIPATE again next session. NA_ETF valuation blind. |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 69.02 | WATCH | 67.87 | 63.76 | 69.25 (+2.0%) | 69.28 (+2.1%) | 75.71 (+11.6%) | Mega-caps BreakoutUp_20D, Buy_Rank 2, cv63 -> below the 65 floor by 2; BreakoutUp is an L1-discouraged chase family and ED -0.87 is extended (close 69.02 above entry 67.87). Best 12wk forward in the book (E12W 75.71, +11.5% vs entry) but fails the floor. The 07-14 @64.88 pullback queue auto-withdrawn (see reconcile line). Re-arm on a PullbackBuy re-rate or firmer conviction. |
| _PORTFOLIO | Sector ETFs | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sector tape (Jul-15 ET close) was a CONSOLIDATION day -- the 07-14 post-CPI risk-on rotation cooled rather than accelerated: all three prior leaders lost a conviction step (XLF STRONG BUY cv76->BUY cv70, MAGS cv74->63, IBB BUY->WATCH cv62) and broad-market coiled (SPY fresh AnticipationUp_VCP cv88). Both 07-14 pullback queues never filled (price ran up, no pullback) -> MAGS @64.88 auto-withdrawn (cv63<65), XLF @54.79 superseded and repriced to a live buy-STOP @56.99. Verdict: ACQUIRE 1 -- XLF QUEUED buy-stop @56.99 (, stop 54.63, expires 07-20), pending 07-16 open; self-limiting fill on strength, starter size on a flat/negative model forward (E12W 55.08 = -3.4% vs entry). Near-misses: SPY cv88 (anticipate slot 1-of-3), MAGS adj63 (below floor), IBB/XBI/IWM/XLE WATCH, XLV cv54 (negative forward). Flat gauge book, no held risk, no sells. CASH -> >= preserved (XLF draws only if it triggers). Valuation blind (all-ETF NA_ETF, technical-only). Overlay 07-05 is 11d stale (past threshold). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
24 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.