Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 3 (XLF QUEUED, MAGS QUEUED, IBB market starter -- pending 07-15 open). Post-CPI tape broadened risk-on and contradicted 07-13's defensive-into-CPI call: staples (XLP) collapsed to NO TRADE, leadership rotated into financials (XLF STRONG BUY BRank-1), mega-caps (MAGS, +14.5% 12wk) and biotech (IBB, at entry) -- all L1-favored PullbackBuy. No-chase queues the two extended names; IBB the lone at-entry market starter; all sized as starters. Near-misses: XLV adj66 (neg forward + BRank tie-loss), XLE adj60 (FailedBreakdown -5), SPY/DIA WATCH adj56.
Recommendations
3 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | Financial Select Sector SPDR | 56.18 | BUY — QUEUED @54.79 | 54.79 | 53.83 | 56.20 (+2.6%) | 56.03 (+2.3%) | 54.73 (-0.1%) | Financials led the post-CPI relief rotation: XLF prints STRONG BUY Buy_Rank-1 on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP family, conviction climbing WATCH->STRONG BUY as the benign June CPI unwound the defensive tilt -- adj 76 clears the floor. Queued as a below-market GTC pullback limit @54.79 (not a market-buy) because close 56.18 sits 1.69 ATR above entry (EntDist -1.69) and RSI 68.5 is hot -- the disciplined no-chase expression, fills only on the ~2.5% pullback. Caveat: E12W 54.73 is flat/-0.1% vs the queue entry (1wk +2.6%, 4wk +2.3% positive), so the 12wk forward is flat -- acceptable for a pullback fill, flagged. Starter ( = 25% of). Stop 53.83 (~1.2 ATR); trade target 56.70. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0, gate off). expires 07-17 (anchor+3); reprice/withdraw if cv<65 or unfilled by expiry. |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 67.44 | BUY — QUEUED @64.88 | 64.88 | 63.43 | 67.68 (+4.3%) | 67.26 (+3.7%) | 74.26 (+14.5%) | Mega-cap seven recovered into the post-CPI risk-on rotation: MAGS BUY Buy_Rank-2 on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP family, adj 74 clears the floor, and carries the BEST forward view in the book -- E12W 74.26 = +14.5% vs entry (1wk +4.3%, 4wk +3.7%). Queued @64.88 because it is the MOST-extended name (EntDist -2.04, ~3.8% above close 67.44) -> pullback-only fill enforces no-chase. Starter ( = 30% of). Stop 63.43 (~1.15 ATR); trade target 67.80. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0, gate off). expires 07-17 (anchor+3); reprice/withdraw if cv<65 or unfilled by expiry. |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 188.67 | BUY | 188.67 | 183.56 | 190.01 (+0.7%) | 191.56 (+1.5%) | 198.06 (+5.0%) | Biotech turned up in the post-CPI broadening: IBB BUY Buy_Rank-3 on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP family, AT entry (EntDist -0.2, not extended) -> the lone at-entry name, taken as a MARKET starter at the 07-15 open. Positive across all horizons (1wk +0.7%, 4wk +1.5%, 12wk +5.0% vs 188.67). Stability caveat: single fresh print (NO TRADE x3 -> BUY) -> starter size mitigates. ( = 30% of). Stop 183.56 (~1.4 ATR); trade target 196.65 (R/R ~1.7:1). Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0, gate off). L8: executes 07-15 open; action ref = 188.67 close, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 158.29 | NO ACTION | 158.27 | 155.05 | 157.36 (-0.6%) | 154.85 (-2.2%) | 154.85 (-2.2%) | Healthcare BUY cv66 on the L1-favored PullbackBuy family, at entry (EntDist -0.01) and clears the raw floor -- but loses the 3rd ACQUIRE slot to IBB on Buy_Rank (4 vs 3) AND prints a negative forward view: both E4W 154.85 and E12W 154.85 sit below close 158.29. Ledgered direction:none/optional so the counterfactual grades what not-buying XLV cost. Re-arm if the forward view turns positive or conviction firms above IBB. |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 56.95 | WATCH | 56.95 | 56.29 | 57.15 (+0.4%) | 57.78 (+1.5%) | 60.51 (+6.3%) | Energy BUY Buy_Rank-5, cv65 -> adj 60 after the -5 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D actionable bias (n=9, hit_1w 0.25), fails the 65 floor by 5. Positive 12wk (60.51, +6.3%) but the weakest actionable buy family in the book. Re-arm on a PullbackBuy re-rate or firmer conviction. |
| _PORTFOLIO | Sector ETFs | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sector tape (Jul-14 ET close, post-CPI) broadened risk-on and CONTRADICTED 07-13's defensive-into-CPI call: the benign June CPI unwound the staples hide (XLP BUY cv80 -> NO TRADE cv0) and leadership rotated back into financials (XLF STRONG BUY), mega-caps (MAGS) and biotech (IBB) -- all on the L1-favored PullbackBuy family. Verdict: ACQUIRE 3 -- XLF QUEUED pullback @54.79, MAGS QUEUED pullback @64.88, IBB MARKET starter @188.67, all pending 07-15 open; the two extended names queued (no-chase), IBB the lone at-entry market starter. Near-misses: XLV adj66 (neg forward + BRank tie-loss), XLE adj60 (FailedBreakdown -5), SPY/DIA WATCH adj56. Flat gauge book, no held risk. CASH -> preserved after IBB ( worst-case if both queues fill). Valuation blind (all-ETF NA_ETF, technical-only). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
23 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.