Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 1 (XLP, starter, pending 07-14 open). Tape contradicts 07-10's bullish SPY call -- SPY cv100 -> NO TRADE, growth/semi complex rolled into AVOID, leadership rotated defensive into CPI. XLP (staples) is the lone floor-clearer (adj76, BRank-1, climbing, at entry). Starter size on gauge-book caution + CPI de-risk. Near-misses: XLF adj62 (RSI hot), DIA adj61 (past entry), MAGS adj55 (weakened).
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLP | Consumer Staples Select SPDR | 84.59 | BUY | 84.59 | 83.94 | 84.76 (+0.2%) | 85.18 (+0.7%) | 86.19 (+1.9%) | Defensive rotation into CPI: money left Nasdaq/semis (QQQ->AVOID, SMH/SOXX down hard) for staples, and XLP prints the book's top-ranked BUY -- conviction climbing ->80 over 3 snaps, RSI 52.5 mid-range, AT entry (EntDist 0.0, not extended). adj cv 80-4=76 clears the 65 floor; XLF(62)/DIA(61) failed it. A defensive staples starter is the de-risk-into-CPI expression, not a fight with it (overlay bias is 'if extended'; XLP is not). Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0, gate off). Starter ( = 30% of) on the gauge-book 'don't unless intended' note. Stop 83.94 (0.5 ATR); trade target 87.21 (R/R ~4:1). L8: executes 07-14 open (post-CPI, so open digests the print); action price is the 84.59 close-ref, reprice if open gaps >~1.5%. |
| XLF | Financial Select SPDR | 56.07 | WATCH | 56.07 | 55.60 | 56.15 (+0.1%) | 55.96 (-0.2%) | 54.89 (-2.1%) | Financials BUY Buy_Rank-2, cv66 -> adj 62 after the -4 FailedBreakdown bias, fails the 65 floor by 3. Also RSI 67.9 (hot, approaching extension) and a negative 12wk estimate (54.89 < 56.07 close). Re-arm on a pullback to entry. |
| DIA | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | 524.47 | WATCH | 521.25 | 515.13 | 525.93 (+0.9%) | 525.37 (+0.8%) | 519.78 (-0.3%) | Dow-value BUY on the L1-favored PullbackBuy family (bias +0) but cv61 fails the 65 floor by 4; EntDist -0.61 (already past entry) and a flat/negative 12wk (519.78 < 521.25 entry). Cleanest re-arm candidate if conviction firms on a settled close. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
22 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.080 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.