Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 1 (SPY, QUEUED starter). Tape flipped decisively bullish; SPY prints L1-favored PullbackBuy cv100 rank-1, a real upgrade over yesterday's hold-out. No-chase -> below-market pullback QUEUE @744.11, starter size on the CPI de-risk bias. Near-misses: MAGS cv77 (single-print + extended), QQQ cv68->adj58 (-10 family), XLF WATCH cv61.
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 754.95 | BUY — QUEUED @744.11 | 744.11 | 734.49 | 758.28 (+1.9%) | 749.31 (+0.7%) | 751.12 (+0.9%) | Broad-market S&P tape flipped decisively risk-on: SPY prints the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP family at cv100 rank-1 (WATCH->NO TRADE->BUY->STRONG BUY, a strengthening 2-print culmination) -- a genuine upgrade over yesterday's held-out FailedBreakdown cv70. Queued as a below-market GTC pullback limit @744.11 (not a market-buy) because the close 754.95 sits 1.31 ATR above entry (EntDist -1.31, extended) -- the disciplined no-chase expression that also satisfies the overlay's de-risk-into-07-14-CPI-if-extended bias. Sized a STARTER ( = half the), preserving for the post-CPI re-arm. Stop 734.49 (1.31 ATR). Caveat: model's own 4wk point 749.31 is below the current close (flat forward view) though +0.7% vs the queue entry; risk target 763.27. Valuation blind (NA_ETF, val_adj 0, gate off). expires 07-15 (anchor+3 sessions); reprice if the 07-13 open gaps >~1.5%. |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 67.68 | NO ACTION | 64.74 | 63.14 | 67.75 (+4.6%) | 66.84 (+3.2%) | 73.11 (+12.9%) | Clears the cv65 floor (PullbackBuy_VWAP cv77 rank-2) but held, not queued: single-print STRONG BUY (AVOID->NO TRADE->WATCH->STRONG BUY, one snapshot -- unstable), MOST-extended name in book (EntDist -2.12, ~4.3% above entry 64.74), and Est_4W 66.84 prints BELOW close 67.68. Into a CPI de-risk window, don't double-stage extended leverage on a one-print signal alongside SPY. Ledgered direction:none/optional so the counterfactual grades what not-queuing MAGS cost. Re-arm on a second stable bullish print or a pullback toward 64.74. |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 725.51 | WATCH | 725.51 | 717.00 | 728.13 (+0.4%) | 726.23 (+0.1%) | 750.32 (+3.4%) | BUY cv68 but fails the floor: -10 actionable bias on the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy cell (0/8 on 1wk hits) -> adj cv58 < 65. Also an unstable re-emergence off 3x consecutive AVOID. Held; QQQ leadership prefers the SPY/MAGS PullbackBuy expression, not the FailedBreakdown chase (L1). |
| _PORTFOLIO | Sector ETFs | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sector tape (Jul-10 ET close) flipped decisively bullish -- FOMC-minutes freeze fully thawed, risk-on leadership re-asserted. Verdict: ACQUIRE 1 (SPY, QUEUED starter pullback limit @744.11, expires 07-15). MAGS (cv77) and QQQ (adj58) held. Flat gauge book otherwise, no held risk to manage. CASH -> preserved into 07-14 CPI. Valuation blind (all-ETF NA_ETF, technical-only). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
22 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.080 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.