Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
NO ACTION. Flat book, no held risk, no buy clears cv>=65 floor. Near-miss (sub-floor): SPY BUY cv70->adj60, XBI ANTICIPATE cv59 (1/3+extended), SOXX AVOID cv64, GLD AVOID cv68, DIA WATCH cv62, XLF WATCH cv61.
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Sector ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO ACTION verdict (Jul-9 ET settled close). Flat sector-gauge book, CASH preserved. Tape thawed marginally off the 07-08 FOMC-minutes freeze but no bull: the only actual BUY (SPY cv70) sits in the -10-bias FailedBreakdown_Up_20D family so adj cv=60<65, is an unstable re-emergence off a NO TRADE, and carries a negative model 4wk estimate (745.29<close 751.71). Overlay says de-risk into 07-14 CPI. Valuation blind (all-ETF NA_ETF, technical-only). Near-misses all sub-floor. No holdings to manage. |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 751.71 | WATCH | 751.71 | 745.59 | 754.89 (+0.4%) | 745.29 (-0.9%) | 753.12 (+0.2%) | The board's only actual BUY, held out. Raw cv70 minus the -10 actionable bias on the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy cell (0/8 on 1wk hits) = adj cv60, below the 65 floor. Also an unstable re-emergence (BUY->WATCH->NO TRADE->BUY over 4 snaps) and the model's own 4wk estimate (745.29) prints BELOW the 751.71 close with a dead T12 (+0.2%) -- the estimator corroborates the no-chase. Re-arm consideration after 07-14 CPI. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
22 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.080 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.