Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
1 QUEUED (repriced), 0 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 63.51 | BUY — QUEUED @59.58 | 59.58 | 57.78 | 63.56 (+6.7%) | 63.17 (+6.0%) | 65.51 (+10.0%) | A standing order to buy the AI and technology fund only if it falls back about 6% from where it closed. This is the same order placed last Friday, repriced onto a stronger reading: the fund is now the single highest-rated holding on the board, its rating having climbed from over two sessions, and it is the one name today whose forecasts sit above the order price at every horizon. The wider case is intact -- the AI trade is broadening beyond the handful of mega-caps into the physical buildout of data centres, power and networking, with Morgan Stanley estimating that more than 80% of the roughly trillion of AI infrastructure spending expected through 2028 has yet to happen, and this fund is the diversified way to own that (, only about a third in chips). The book still will not pay Monday's price for it. The order sits just above the fund's recent average price and is protected by a stop with genuine room beneath it rather than one perched at a session low. Read the upside honestly: the '+6%' is the size of the discount being asked for, not a forecast rally -- the model's actual view is that the fund goes sideways for a month. OPS: repriced from the 08-07 GTC limit @59.64 per the Step 7 provenance rule (that order was never approached; AIQ's 08-10 low was 63.09). STRONG BUY conv 77 (trail AVOID49, AVOID37, B67, SB77), Buy_Rank 1, PullbackBuy_VWAP bias +0 (ACTIONABLE n=6, hit_1w 0.5, stop_first 0.50) -> adj 77, clears the 65 floor by 12. L1-favoured family. Limit 59.58 is 6.19% / 2.53 ATR below the 63.51 close, anchored just above VWAP 59.34; entry range 59.19-59.97 (+/-0.25 ATR, ATR 1.5546). Stop 57.78 = -3.02% / 1.158 ATR -- a REAL stop, not the session-low construction. R:R 2.01:1 vs Target_Price 63.19. Est_* read directly per ADR-0013, ~80% bands, 1wk LOW-RELIABILITY (calib_1w -0.068, 5th straight degenerate session, SE-3/L5). SE-2 FIRES MILDLY: Est_4W 63.17 is 0.34 BELOW the 63.51 close -- size and time this as a <=4-week tactical swing with a planned exit, never a position hold. SIZING = : model wants (85.49% x x 20% = / 59.58) but the order is cut to the CONSTRAINED reconcile branch -- if the 08-07 XBI card filled as instructed it consumed of the leaving. STANDING UPSIZE INSTRUCTION: if XBI is recorded SKIPPED, raise this order to before working it. FILL RISK: AIQ is ~36% semiconductors and SOXX/SMH both closed AT their session lows today, so a fill would most likely arrive BECAUSE the chip break continued -- re-validate the live row on any fill day. expires_on 2026-08-13 straddles July CPI (Wed 08-12 8:30am ET) and PPI + AMAT results (Thu 08-13); any fill driven by those is a shock, not a clean pullback. ADV-1 caveat: no_chase_queue withheld-1w has drifted +0.22% (07-18) -> +0.67% (08-07) -> +1.77% (n=17) -- still advisory, flagged for the next learnings review. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 158.03 | WATCH | 158.25 | 154.96 | 158.10 (-0.1%) | 158.30 (+0.0%) | 162.29 (+2.6%) | The order to buy small-cap biotech placed last Friday should have been executed on Monday morning, and the book has not written down whether it was. Unlike the previous week's biotech order, nothing stopped this one: the fund opened at, which is 0.9% BELOW the reference price and comfortably inside the band the card allowed, so a fill was instructed. It would have been a good one -- the fund closed at, marking the position up 1.3%, or about on its first day. It also survived its protective stop by four cents. The position is a HOLD, not a sale: the trend reading is the strongest on the entire board and the gain is nowhere near the level at which the book takes profits. What is needed is the bookkeeping. OPS: 08-07 card BUY 217 @157.37, execute_on 2026-08-10, gap band 155.01-159.73. Open 155.98 = -0.88%, INSIDE the band -> guard PASSED, TAKEN is the instructed outcome. Fill 217 x 155.98 =; close mark 217 x 158.03 = = + / +1.31%. STOP MISSED BY : the card's 154.96 stop was flagged as the 9th consecutive stop-at-the-session-low; XBI's 08-10 low printed 155.00 -- survived by 0.026% on a day the trade closed +1.31%. Direct causal evidence for systemic finding (1). ADR-0019: this is now one of FOUR unreconciled cards (07-30 IBB, 08-06 IBB, 08-07 XBI, 08-07 AIQ), oldest at NINE sessions -- run `trade buy` / `trade skip sectoretf XBI`. is (skipped) or (taken); today's AIQ order is sized to the tighter branch because of it. Today's row prints BUY - ANTICIPATE conv 83, Trend_Score 94 (best on the board), bias -10 -> adj 73, but is SLOT INELIGIBLE (1 of last 3: AVOID55, SB85, ANTIC83) and carries the family's hard-pinned 3.00-ATR / 7.59% stop -- so NO new card is issued; a fresh buy here would risk doubling the position. STOP INSTRUCTION on the held branch: keep 154.96 unchanged, do NOT widen it to the 146.24 the ANTICIPATE row prints. Not profit-armed (gain ~0.51 ATR vs the 3.0-ATR arm). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
30 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.