Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
1 QUEUED, 1 WITHDRAWN, 0 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE, 0 ANTICIPATE
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 153.00 | BUY — QUEUED @144.65 | 144.65 | 139.85 | 152.32 (+5.3%) | 152.68 (+5.6%) | 163.00 (+12.7%) | The quantum-computing complex is in a genuine recovery after a bruising June-July - D-Wave is up 32% in a week, IonQ just reported revenue up 287% year-on-year and 20% above consensus, and IBM's CEO has framed 2026 as the year the industry could deliver its first credible commercial quantum-advantage benchmark. QTUM is the diversified way to own that rather than a single pure-play bet, and it is the strongest technical print on the board: STRONG BUY at conviction 81, rank 1, on a pullback-to-VWAP setup. We are not chasing it - the order rests 5.5% below the market at, just above the fund's volume-weighted average price, with a defined stop at that risks 3.3% to target 6.7%. If the pullback does not come, we simply do not own it. OPERATIONAL: PullbackBuy_VWAP cell bias +0 (actionable n=6), adj 81, clears the 65 floor by 16. Trail AVOID37->W57->W49->SB81 is a 32-point ONE-SESSION jump driven by a family re-classification, not a multi-session build - weaker stability than the AIQ card it replaces. Stop is a real 1.158 ATR (not the anticipate family's 3.00-ATR hard pin); R:R 2.00:1 vs Target_Price 154.26; 12wk 163.00 is +6.54% ABOVE the close, the strongest forward leg queued in two weeks. SE-2 FIRES MILDLY (Est_4W 152.68 is below the 153.00 close) -> size and time as a <=4-week TACTICAL SWING with a planned exit, never a position hold. 1wk carries a LOW-RELIABILITY flag (calib_1w -0.068, sixth straight degenerate session, SE-3/L5). IS BRANCH-DEPENDENT: sized to the constrained branch; UPSIZE TO IF THE 08-07 XBI CARD IS RECORDED SKIPPED. Expiry window straddles CPI 08-12, PPI + AMAT 08-13 (direct semi read-through into QTUM) and retail sales 08-14 - ANY FILL DRIVEN BY THOSE IS A SHOCK, NOT A CLEAN PULLBACK: re-validate against the live row before accepting. Systemic finding 4: this is the THIRD below-market PullbackBuy_VWAP limit in five sessions and the prior two (AIQ @59.64, @59.58) never came within 5.68% of filling before the name died at conviction 0. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 158.07 | WATCH | 158.92 | 154.96 | 158.27 (-0.4%) | 157.69 (-0.8%) | 161.69 (+1.7%) | Biotech is held, not traded today. The position is up 1.3% on its fill, the trend reading is among the strongest in the book, and the risk line was never threatened - the fund's low sat 1.2% above our stop. There is no reason to sell and no reason to add: the signal is still constructive but the fund has not pulled back to anything worth paying, so we hold and let the existing stop do the work. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0019 - the 08-07 card (BUY 217 @, gap guard PASSED) is STILL unrecorded, eleven sessions on the oldest debt. On the taken branch: cost, marked at the 158.07 close = + / +1.34%. NOT profit-armed (gain 0.57 ATR vs the 3.0-ATR arm; no Exit_Warning code). KEEP THE STOP AT - do NOT widen to the the new ANTICIPATE row prints; never widen a live stop. Today's low was 156.80 = 1.19% headroom (against yesterday's four-cent escape). Slot-eligible at with adj 65, but NO NEW CARD is written because a fresh buy-stop would double an unrecorded position. Run `trade buy`/`trade skip sectoretf XBI` to clear. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
30 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.