Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
1 QUEUED (repriced), 0 ACQUIRE, 0 DISPOSE, 0 ANTICIPATE
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 156.85 | BUY — QUEUED @145.09 | 145.09 | 140.25 | 156.62 (+7.9%) | 155.73 (+7.3%) | 167.33 (+15.3%) | Quantum computing is the cleanest momentum trade on this board right now - the pure-plays have rallied roughly 20% in seven sessions on IonQ's blowout quarter (revenue +287% y/y, guidance raised, a new DARPA contract), and QTUM prints the strongest signal in the book at STRONG BUY conviction 88, Buy_Rank 1, for a second straight session. Rather than chase a fund trading 8.6% above its own VWAP, we bid 7.5% below the market at - the level the model itself marks as fair entry - with a tight 1.16-ATR stop giving 2:1 reward-to-risk and a twelve-week estimate 15% above the limit. OPERATIONAL: repriced from the unfilled 08-11 GTC at (session low never approached it); provenance-clean off the live anchor Entry_Price, not a carry-forward. L1-favoured family, cell bias +0 (actionable n=6). SE-2 fires mildly - Est_4W is below the close - so time this as a <=4-week tactical swing with a planned exit, never a position hold. 1wk estimate LOW-RELIABILITY (calib_1w -0.068, 7th degenerate session, SE-3/L5). SIZING IS BRANCH-DEPENDENT: assumes the 08-07 XBI card filled (left of); if XBI is recorded SKIPPED, UPSIZE to before working the order. FILL RISK: 4th consecutive below-market limit in six sessions, prior three all expired unfilled; window straddles PPI + AMAT AMC (08-13) and retail sales (08-14) - any fill driven by those is a shock, not a clean pullback, so RE-VALIDATE against the live row first. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 159.39 | WATCH | 159.53 | 154.96 | 159.49 (-0.0%) | 159.30 (-0.1%) | 162.51 (+1.9%) | Biotech remains one of the market's strongest trends - a friendlier FDA, heavy M&A and AI-driven drug discovery have carried the sector ETFs to fresh 52-week highs, and XBI holds a Trend score of 94. On the instructed branch the book owns at, now marked +2.19% at the close, and the risk line was never threatened this session. This is a hold, not a sell and not a re-buy. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0019 debt - the 08-07 fill is STILL unrecorded after twelve sessions, so run `trade buy sectoretf XBI`. NOT profit-armed (0.97 ATR of gain vs the 3.0-ATR arm, no Exit_Warning code), so no trim and no trail-raise is due. KEEP THE STOP AT - do NOT widen it to the the new ANTICIPATE row prints; never widen a live stop. Session low left 1.44% of headroom. The name is slot-eligible at 3-of-3 anticipate prints but NO fresh card is written: it would double an unrecorded position. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
30 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.068 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.