Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 64.48 | BUY | 64.48 | 63.46 | 65.07 (+0.9%) | 66.67 (+3.4%) | 68.11 (+5.6%) | Energy is the one name on the board whose four-week payoff justifies its risk: XLE reclaimed the 20-day range after a failed breakdown, and the model forward view is ordered upward (4wk / 12wk) against a stop only 1.58% below the entry - a 2.15x reward-to-risk. We pre-committed to exactly this entry two sessions ago and all three written conditions are met tonight, so we take it rather than re-argue it. RE-ARM CLEARED (09-15/09-16 card): conviction 69 >= 65; Payoff_4W 2.15x >= 1.5x (W3); Est_12W > Est_4W (clears the SE-2 inverted-forward veto that declined it on 09-16 at 66.20 vs 66.26); entry at 0.00 ATR from the close. SE-1: the live FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy bias is +0 tonight (n=18, hit_4w 0.417), not the -3 in the ACTIVE block - read live, no haircut applied. CAUTION (sizing, not veto): XLE gained only +0.70% on a +1.14% S&P tape and closed BELOW its own EMA10 - it is the only candidate under its 10-EMA, and the oil driver is easing (Saudi East-West pipeline restart). Treat as a <=4-week tactical swing per SE-2, not a position hold. Size = 20% of the conservative NAV / size_mod 1.0 (valuation blind, NA_ETF). L8: executes at the 2026-09-18 open - reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%; 09-18 is quarterly triple witching, so expect a noisy print. Risk at stop = (0.32% of NAV). · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 64.37 | NO ACTION | 64.37 | 63.83 | 64.28 (-0.1%) | 64.16 (-0.3%) | 68.93 (+7.1%) | AI & tech ETF printed the strongest buy label on the board (BUY conviction 75, Buy_Rank 1) and finally cleared its Y5 re-entry level, but we are passing: the model's own four-week estimate sits BELOW the entry price, so the trade has no forward payoff to collect. Payoff_4W = (64.16 - 64.37)/0.54 = -0.39x against a 1.5x bar (W3) - the 4wk estimate and 1wk are both under the entry; only the 12wk is up, which is the classic SE-2 inverted/flat forward on this book. Y5 IS NOW CLEARED for the first time (close > and BUY cv75 >= 65) - that gate is no longer what blocks it. RE-ARM: BUY/SB with conviction >= 65 AND Payoff_4W >= 1.5x, i.e. Est_4W must print above the entry. Not placed: /. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 164.39 | NO ACTION | 164.39 | 161.79 | 166.06 (+1.0%) | 167.56 (+1.9%) | 175.45 (+6.7%) | Cloud computing met the conviction re-arm we wrote on 09-16 (BUY cv68 >= 64, third session of asking) but fails the book-wide payoff bar, so it stays on the shelf. Payoff_4W = (167.56 - 164.39)/2.60 = 1.22x against the 1.5x gate (W3): the 0.76-ATR stop is tight enough that a four-week move does not pay for it. Structurally this is the cleanest chart in the book - close above EMA10/20/50/100/200, RSI 59.5, forward ordered upward (167.56 -> 175.45). The named re-arm and the general gate disagreed; the general gate governs. RE-ARM (tightened): BUY/SB with conviction >= 64 AND Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. Not placed: /. · news |
| — | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sold at this morning's open on the pre-committed second-NO-TRADE exit, and tonight it printed BUY again at a 52-week breakout (+1.81% to) - but it does not earn its way back in. Conviction 63 is below the 65 floor and below the Y5 re-entry bar; Payoff_4W is 0.24x on a 3.11-ATR stop - the widest risk on the board for the smallest four-week move. BreakoutUp_52W|buy is report-only here (n=4, hit_4w 0.000) - flagged, not biased - and L1 says discount breakout chases. The 09-16 exit is reconciled: portfolio -> 0, monitor clean. No re-entry regret is being traded here. RE-ARM: BUY/SB conviction >= 65 AND Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 188.06 | WATCH | 189.43 | 179.05 | 187.79 (-0.9%) | 185.77 (-1.9%) | 199.83 (+5.5%) | Tech printed the book's first BUY - ANTICIPATE in 31 sessions (AnticipationUp_VCP, conviction 78, Trend pillar 92) and cleared its Y5 level, but the anticipate slot stays empty on two independent counts. Eligibility needs the ANTICIPATE label in >=2 of the last 3 snapshots and this is (WATCH 57 -> WATCH 59 -> ANTIC 78). The cell is also the book's worst actionable buy cell: AnticipationUp_VCP|buy bias -10 (n=5, hit_1w 0.00, hit_4w 0.20), taking conviction adjusted; and Payoff_4W is -0.35x because Est_4W sits below the buy-stop on a 3.00-ATR stop. Counterfactual agrees (anticipate n=24, median -3.91% [saved]). RE-ARM: a second consecutive ANTICIPATE/BUY print AND Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 111.39 | WATCH | 111.39 | 111.39 | 112.00 (+0.5%) | 112.80 (+1.3%) | 113.99 (+2.3%) | Consumer discretionary is the board's deepest oversold read (RSI 39.0) and rose only +1.10% on a broad risk-on session. The label reverted to AVOID (FailedBreakout_Down_20D) after one bullish ReversalUp_Oversold print on 09-16, so there is nothing to act on; long-only and unheld. Watching for a second consecutive bullish print. · news |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 519.10 | WATCH | 519.10 | 519.10 | 523.50 (+0.8%) | 530.73 (+2.2%) | 536.01 (+3.3%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. Semis led the tape (+3.39%/+2.76%) on the Intel CEO memory-bottleneck comment and Micron +5%, yet the engine still labels them AVOID at conviction 81/76 - a live example of the signal disagreeing with a strong session. · news |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 560.61 | WATCH | 560.61 | 560.61 | 566.18 (+1.0%) | 578.10 (+3.1%) | 585.41 (+4.4%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. Semis led the tape (+3.39%/+2.76%) on the Intel CEO memory-bottleneck comment and Micron +5%, yet the engine still labels them AVOID at conviction 81/76 - a live example of the signal disagreeing with a strong session. · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 43.66 | WATCH | 43.66 | 43.66 | 44.15 (+1.1%) | 45.82 (+4.9%) | 48.89 (+12.0%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 716.92 | WATCH | 716.92 | 716.92 | 715.29 (-0.2%) | 712.97 (-0.6%) | 720.73 (+0.5%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. · news |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 207.07 | WATCH | 207.07 | 207.07 | 207.28 (+0.1%) | 213.22 (+3.0%) | 207.09 (+0.0%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. · news |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 158.25 | WATCH | 158.25 | 158.25 | 158.97 (+0.5%) | 159.67 (+0.9%) | 168.03 (+6.2%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 762.60 | WATCH | 762.60 | 762.60 | 764.10 (+0.2%) | 767.90 (+0.7%) | 784.99 (+2.9%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. · news |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 31.15 | WATCH | 31.15 | 31.15 | 31.31 (+0.5%) | 32.55 (+4.5%) | 37.83 (+21.4%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. Only non-ETF row in the book; valuation OVERVALUED_VS_RI (MoS -0.78), moot on an AVOID label. · news |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 168.81 | WATCH | 168.81 | 168.81 | 168.78 (-0.0%) | 168.01 (-0.5%) | 167.30 (-0.9%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 398.36 | WATCH | 398.36 | 398.36 | 395.52 (-0.7%) | 406.22 (+2.0%) | 427.20 (+7.2%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. Note the degenerate exit spec (X7): Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price, which is why no payoff can be computed on these rows. Gold +1.69% with the 10y down 5bp; still AVOID, unheld. · news |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. This bucket now covers rows (down from 12 on 09-16 as the risk-on session resolved several conflicts), which is the first improvement in five sessions of this finding. Deeply oversold on RSI (XLI 31.5, IWM 36.1, XLF 37.1, DIA 39.7) yet still gated out by the consensus check. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. This bucket now covers rows (down from 12 on 09-16 as the risk-on session resolved several conflicts), which is the first improvement in five sessions of this finding. Deeply oversold on RSI (XLI 31.5, IWM 36.1, XLF 37.1, DIA 39.7) yet still gated out by the consensus check. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. This bucket now covers rows (down from 12 on 09-16 as the risk-on session resolved several conflicts), which is the first improvement in five sessions of this finding. Deeply oversold on RSI (XLI 31.5, IWM 36.1, XLF 37.1, DIA 39.7) yet still gated out by the consensus check. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. This bucket now covers rows (down from 12 on 09-16 as the risk-on session resolved several conflicts), which is the first improvement in five sessions of this finding. Deeply oversold on RSI (XLI 31.5, IWM 36.1, XLF 37.1, DIA 39.7) yet still gated out by the consensus check. |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. This bucket now covers rows (down from 12 on 09-16 as the risk-on session resolved several conflicts), which is the first improvement in five sessions of this finding. |
| — | Defiance Quantum ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. This bucket now covers rows (down from 12 on 09-16 as the risk-on session resolved several conflicts), which is the first improvement in five sessions of this finding. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
54 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.148 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.