Sector ETFs — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE 2 (XLE 153, SKYY 61) / DISPOSE 0
Recommendations
2 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 64.13 | NO ACTION | 64.13 | 63.61 | 64.15 (+0.0%) | 64.00 (-0.2%) | 68.70 (+7.1%) | AI & tech still prints the top buy rank (BUY cv69, Buy_Rank 1) but the model's own four-week estimate sits below the entry, so there is no four-week payoff to collect. OPERATIONAL: Payoff_4W (64.00-64.13)/0.52 = -0.25x vs 1.5x bar (W3); second session running with an inverted 4wk (SE-2). Conviction fell. RE-ARM unchanged: BUY/SB cv>=65 AND Payoff_4W>=1.5x. Not placed: /. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 162.02 | BUY | 162.02 | 160.31 | 163.65 (+1.0%) | 166.27 (+2.6%) | 173.63 (+7.2%) | Cloud computing has now met the re-arm we wrote on 09-17 in full: a second consecutive BUY with the four-week estimate paying 2.49x the risk to a stop 1% below entry, on the cleanest trend structure in the book (above EMA10/20/50/200). Friday's -1.44% pullback into the close is what fixed the payoff, so this is a buy on weakness, not a chase. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D BUY cv69 (WATCH62 -> BUY68 -> BUY69), Buy_Rank 2; Payoff_4W (166.27-162.02)/1.71 = 2.49x (was 1.22x on 09-17); Est_12W 173.63 > Est_4W 166.27. RE-ARM (09-17: BUY/SB cv>=64 AND Payoff_4W>=1.5x) MET - executed per W4, not re-argued. W3 corollary: 0.50-ATR stop - payoff provisional. Close near the day low and far off the high - no chase. Size 20% of conservative NAV = ->, size_mod 1.0. L8: executes at the 09-21 open; reprice on a >~1.5% gap. · news |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 64.31 | BUY | 64.31 | 63.66 | 64.88 (+0.9%) | 66.69 (+3.7%) | 67.23 (+4.5%) | Energy still offers the best reward-to-risk on the board: a fifth straight bullish print after a failed 20-day breakdown, with the model's four-week estimate 3.66x the distance to a stop only 1% below entry, and a forward view still ordered upward (12wk). The 09-17 card was not recorded as filled, so it is re-issued at tonight's live entry rather than the stale. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D BUY cv68 (trail SB78 -> BUY66 -> BUY69 -> BUY68), Buy_Rank 3; Payoff_4W (66.69-64.31)/0.65 = 3.66x >= 1.5x (W3); Est_12W 67.23 > Est_4W 66.69 (SE-2 ordering ok); entry 0.00 ATR from close. SE-1 live bias +0 (n=19, hit_4w 0.385). W3 corollary: 0.50-ATR stop - payoff provisional. 09-17 card (@64.48, execute 09-18) UNRECONCILED: 09-18 range 64.10-64.75 made it fillable, but input/sectoretfportfolio.json still shows - owner must record `trade buy sectoretf XLE <fill>` OR `trade skip sectoretf XLE`; if the 09-18 fill happened, this card is a DUPLICATE - do not double-buy (L7). Size 20% of conservative NAV = ->, size_mod 1.0 (NA_ETF). L8: executes at the 09-21 open (index rebalance day) - reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. <=4wk tactical swing (SE-2). · news |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. rows (unchanged from 09-17; IBB joined, QTUM left). |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 31.31 | WATCH | 31.31 | 31.31 | 31.48 (+0.5%) | 32.62 (+4.2%) | 38.15 (+21.8%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. Only non-ETF row; valuation OVERVALUED_VS_RI, moot on an AVOID label. · news |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 761.69 | WATCH | 761.69 | 761.69 | 762.69 (+0.1%) | 764.70 (+0.4%) | 780.71 (+2.5%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. SPY -0.12% vs S&P +0.17% - consistent with the quarterly ex-dividend on 09-18 (DIA likewise -0.48% vs Dow -0.18%); not a signal. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 721.45 | WATCH | 725.04 | 697.64 | 721.59 (-0.5%) | 719.94 (-0.7%) | 735.13 (+1.4%) | Nasdaq-100 flipped from AVOID straight to BUY - ANTICIPATE at conviction 91 on a +0.63% session, but a single print is not eligible for the anticipate slot (needs) and the four-week estimate is below the buy-stop. OPERATIONAL: AnticipationUp_VCP cv91, bias -10 -> adj 81; Payoff_4W -0.19x on a 3.0-ATR stop. Y5: QQQ close > cut-stop - reclaim test now PASSED. RE-ARM: second ANTICIPATE/BUY print AND Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. rows (unchanged from 09-17; IBB joined, QTUM left). |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 70.46 | WATCH | 70.46 | 69.95 | 70.80 (+0.5%) | 71.19 (+1.0%) | 75.00 (+6.4%) | Magnificent Seven faded from BUY 63 to WATCH 54 and slipped -0.45%, so the 09-17 exit stands and nothing is re-armed. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cv54 below the 65 floor; Payoff_4W (71.19-70.46)/0.51 = 1.43x, just under 1.5x. RE-ARM: BUY/SB cv>=65 AND Payoff_4W>=1.5x. · news |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 533.07 | WATCH | 533.07 | 533.07 | 538.58 (+1.0%) | 539.47 (+1.2%) | 543.70 (+2.0%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. Semis rose +2.69% / SMH +2.21% on the session and still print AVOID (cv64/cv69) - the X7 label defect, again on the board's best funds. · news |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 401.17 | WATCH | 401.17 | 401.17 | 400.38 (-0.2%) | 411.57 (+2.6%) | 431.37 (+7.5%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. · news |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 573.00 | WATCH | 573.00 | 573.00 | 576.57 (+0.6%) | 584.20 (+2.0%) | 588.94 (+2.8%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. Semis rose +2.69% / SMH +2.21% on the session and still print AVOID (cv64/cv69) - the X7 label defect, again on the board's best funds. · news |
| — | iShares Biotech ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. rows (unchanged from 09-17; IBB joined, QTUM left). |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 156.72 | WATCH | 156.72 | 156.72 | 157.28 (+0.4%) | 157.19 (+0.3%) | 165.88 (+5.8%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. · news |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. rows (unchanged from 09-17; IBB joined, QTUM left). |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. rows (unchanged from 09-17; IBB joined, QTUM left). |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 168.39 | WATCH | 168.39 | 168.39 | 168.61 (+0.1%) | 168.47 (+0.0%) | 168.98 (+0.4%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 189.60 | WATCH | 189.40 | 179.72 | 190.81 (+0.7%) | 187.71 (-0.9%) | 204.49 (+8.0%) | Tech now qualifies for the anticipate slot on the label count (BUY - ANTICIPATE in 2 of the last 3 snapshots, conviction, but the slot stays empty because the model's four-week estimate sits below the buy-stop. OPERATIONAL: AnticipationUp_VCP cv93 -> adj 83 (cell bias -10, n=5, hit_1w 0.00, hit_4w 0.20); Payoff_4W (187.71-189.40)/9.68 = -0.17x on a 3.0-ATR stop - the 09-17 re-arm required >=1.5x and fails. Close is already ABOVE the buy-stop (Entry_Distance -0.06 ATR), so the order would have been a fill-on-strength already spent. Anticipate counterfactual n=24, -3.91% [saved] - advisory only (U1). RE-ARM: ANTICIPATE/BUY with Payoff_4W >= 1.5x. · news |
| — | Consumer Staples SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO TRADE, conviction 0 - NoTrade_Reason is "Consensus conflict + low conviction". Unheld, nothing to do. rows (unchanged from 09-17; IBB joined, QTUM left). |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 111.03 | WATCH | 111.03 | 111.03 | 111.76 (+0.7%) | 113.00 (+1.8%) | 113.45 (+2.2%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. RSI 38.0; still the deepest oversold AVOID. · news |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 43.21 | WATCH | 43.21 | 43.21 | 43.78 (+1.3%) | 45.69 (+5.7%) | 48.61 (+12.5%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. · news |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 147.79 | WATCH | 147.79 | 147.79 | 149.21 (+1.0%) | 152.49 (+3.2%) | 161.99 (+9.6%) | Bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D print; long-only book and unheld, so there is nothing to do. X7 degenerate exit spec: Stop_Price == Entry_Price with a blank Target_Price. Flipped NO TRADE -> AVOID cv75 on a +0.71% session. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
55 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.148 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.