Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR | 62.46 | EXIT IF FILLED | 62.46 | 63.66 | 62.74 (+0.4%) | 65.07 (+4.2%) | 63.62 (+1.9%) | Energy's buy from Friday should not have been placed, and if it was, it should be sold at Tuesday's open. Oil broke back below and XLE gapped to at Monday's open, already under the stop the card carried, then closed at, and the model cut conviction from (WATCH). OPERATIONAL: 09-18 card BUY @64.31 (MOO 09-21); open = -1.77% gap -> L8 reprice clause fires, and an open below the card's own stop invalidates the entry. input/sectoretfportfolio.json still (ADR-0019, 39th run). IF FILLED: SELL 153 at the 09-22 open (decisive stop break, close 0.84 ATR under; at the close) and record `trade buy` + `trade sell`. IF NOT: `trade skip sectoretf XLE`. The 09-17 XLE card (@64.48) is also still unrecorded. Payoff_4W prints 3.62x on the new 0.50-ATR stop but the label is WATCH 52, below the 65 floor - no re-issue. · news |
| SKYY | First Trust Cloud Computing ETF | 168.21 | HOLD IF FILLED | 162.02 | 160.31 | 169.43 (+4.6%) | 173.53 (+7.1%) | 177.52 (+9.6%) | Cloud's buy from Friday was fillable and is working: SKYY opened at, within the reprice band, and closed at (+3.82% on the day) on a 52-week breakout. If it filled, hold it on the original stop; the model's new stop is lower, and we never lower a stop. OPERATIONAL: 09-18 card BUY @162.02 (MOO 09-21); open +0.71% vs ref (<1.5%, no reprice). If filled at : + (+3.09%), 1.27 ATR gain - not PROFIT_ARMED (<3 ATR), no trail tick. Signal flipped FailedBreakdown_Up_20D -> BreakoutUp_52W BUY 63 (below 65 floor), so NOT re-issued if unfilled - chasing a +3.8% breakout close would break L1/no-chase (Payoff_4W 0.47x). Record `trade buy sectoretf SKYY 61 <fill>` or `trade skip sectoretf SKYY`. · news |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) | 741.47 | WATCH | 724.35 | 688.08 | 745.61 (+2.9%) | 750.88 (+3.7%) | 785.40 (+8.4%) | Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) broke to a 52-week high on the chip-led Nasdaq record, but the model's conviction is only 63, under the 65 bar, and the close is already 1.47 ATR above its buy-stop, so buying now is a chase. OPERATIONAL: BreakoutUp_52W BUY 63 (report-only cell, bias 0); Payoff_4W 0.73x < 1.5x (W3); Est_4W. RE-ARM: BUY/SB cv>=65 AND Payoff_4W>=1.5x off a live entry within 0.25 ATR of the close. · news |
| XLK | Tech Select Sector SPDR | 194.85 | WATCH | 189.88 | 178.44 | 196.36 (+3.4%) | 195.46 (+2.9%) | 207.90 (+9.5%) | Tech Select Sector SPDR broke to a 52-week high on the chip-led Nasdaq record, but the model's conviction is only 63, under the 65 bar, and the close is already 1.35 ATR above its buy-stop, so buying now is a chase. OPERATIONAL: BreakoutUp_52W BUY 63 (report-only cell, bias 0); Payoff_4W 0.49x < 1.5x (W3); Est_4W. RE-ARM: BUY/SB cv>=65 AND Payoff_4W>=1.5x off a live entry within 0.25 ATR of the close. · news |
| AIQ | Global X AI & Tech ETF | 66.31 | WATCH | 65.17 | 61.30 | 66.86 (+2.6%) | 66.05 (+1.4%) | 69.67 (+6.9%) | Global X AI & Tech ETF printed a fresh anticipation setup on the semiconductor rally, but it is the first such print and the price has already run through the buy-stop, so the move the order exists to catch has happened. OPERATIONAL: AnticipationUp_VCP ANTIC 98 (BUY75 > BUY69 > ANTIC98) = snapshots (slot needs); close > buy-stop (EDA -0.88); Payoff_4W 0.23x < 1.5x. RE-ARM: second ANTIC print with the close back below the buy-stop AND Payoff_4W>=1.5x. · news |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | 559.34 | WATCH | 537.32 | 482.18 | 561.69 (+4.5%) | 565.21 (+5.2%) | 578.26 (+7.6%) | iShares Semiconductor ETF printed a fresh anticipation setup on the semiconductor rally, but it is the first such print and the price has already run through the buy-stop, so the move the order exists to catch has happened. OPERATIONAL: AnticipationUp_VCP ANTIC 76 (AVOID81 > AVOID64 > ANTIC76) = snapshots (slot needs); close > buy-stop (EDA -1.2); Payoff_4W 0.51x < 1.5x. RE-ARM: second ANTIC print with the close back below the buy-stop AND Payoff_4W>=1.5x. · news |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 596.03 | WATCH | 582.61 | 528.73 | 596.54 (+2.4%) | 603.81 (+3.6%) | 616.44 (+5.8%) | VanEck Semiconductor ETF printed a fresh anticipation setup on the semiconductor rally, but it is the first such print and the price has already run through the buy-stop, so the move the order exists to catch has happened. OPERATIONAL: AnticipationUp_VCP ANTIC 74 (AVOID76 > AVOID69 > ANTIC74) = snapshots (slot needs); close > buy-stop (EDA -0.75); Payoff_4W 0.39x < 1.5x. RE-ARM: second ANTIC print with the close back below the buy-stop AND Payoff_4W>=1.5x. · news |
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | 72.97 | WATCH | 72.97 | 74.74 | 73.21 (+0.3%) | 74.34 (+1.9%) | 77.76 (+6.6%) | The Magnificent Seven fund rallied 3.6% into overbought territory (RSI 70) and the model now reads it as a reversal-down setup (STRONG SELL 86); long-only book, nothing to hold or sell. OPERATIONAL: ReversalDown_Overbought, trail NT0 > BUY63 > WATCH54 > AVOID86. Not held. · news |
| — | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg: no signal - the model's pillars disagree. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE 0, "Consensus conflict + low conviction" (4 sessions running); RSI 42.8, below EMA20. Not held. |
| — | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | iShares Russell 2000 ETF: no signal - the model's pillars disagree. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE 0, "Consensus conflict + low conviction" (4 sessions running); RSI 37.9, below EMA20. Not held. |
| — | Financial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Financial Select Sector SPDR: no signal - the model's pillars disagree. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE 0, "Consensus conflict + low conviction" (4 sessions running); RSI 37.5, below EMA20. Not held. |
| — | Industrial Select Sector SPDR | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Industrial Select Sector SPDR: no signal - the model's pillars disagree. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE 0, "Consensus conflict + low conviction" (4 sessions running); RSI 35.3, below EMA20. Not held. |
| DXYZ | Destiny Tech100 Inc | 30.99 | WATCH | 30.99 | 30.99 | 31.10 (+0.4%) | 32.20 (+3.9%) | 37.75 (+21.8%) | Destiny Tech100 Inc: bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID cv56 with Stop == Entry and blank target (X7 geometry defect). |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 773.50 | WATCH | 773.50 | 773.50 | 775.98 (+0.3%) | 781.02 (+1.0%) | 791.42 (+2.3%) | SPDR S&P 500 ETF: bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID cv62 with Stop == Entry and blank target (X7 geometry defect). |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | 398.38 | WATCH | 398.38 | 398.38 | 399.38 (+0.3%) | 413.71 (+3.8%) | 433.27 (+8.8%) | SPDR Gold Shares ETF: bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID cv51 with Stop == Entry and blank target (X7 geometry defect). |
| IBB | iShares Biotech ETF | 207.16 | WATCH | 207.16 | 207.16 | 207.57 (+0.2%) | 210.75 (+1.7%) | 211.60 (+2.1%) | iShares Biotech ETF: bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID cv65 with Stop == Entry and blank target (X7 geometry defect). |
| XBI | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 158.23 | WATCH | 158.23 | 158.23 | 158.88 (+0.4%) | 158.40 (+0.1%) | 165.79 (+4.8%) | SPDR S&P Biotech ETF: bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID cv65 with Stop == Entry and blank target (X7 geometry defect). |
| XLV | Health Care Select Sector SPDR | 169.01 | WATCH | 169.01 | 169.01 | 168.99 (-0.0%) | 168.78 (-0.1%) | 168.67 (-0.2%) | Health Care Select Sector SPDR: bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID cv64 with Stop == Entry and blank target (X7 geometry defect). |
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | 81.92 | WATCH | 81.92 | 82.75 | 81.66 (-0.3%) | 81.58 (-0.4%) | 82.47 (+0.7%) | Consumer Staples SPDR: bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: RallySell_BearTrend AVOID cv56. |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | 112.23 | WATCH | 112.23 | 112.23 | 112.69 (+0.4%) | 113.06 (+0.7%) | 114.47 (+2.0%) | Consumer Discretionary SPDR: bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID cv75 with Stop == Entry and blank target (X7 geometry defect). |
| UFO | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech) | 44.17 | WATCH | 44.17 | 44.17 | 44.61 (+1.0%) | 46.04 (+4.2%) | 48.40 (+9.6%) | Procure Space ETF (SpaceTech): bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakout_Down_20D AVOID cv65 with Stop == Entry and blank target (X7 geometry defect). |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 153.04 | WATCH | — | — | 154.14 | 156.89 | 164.68 | Defiance Quantum ETF: bearish or empty signal on a long-only book, not held. OPERATIONAL: NoSignal AVOID cv0. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
58 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.173 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
88 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.