Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.28 | SELL 50% | 1.27 | 1.25 | n/a | n/a | 1.16 (-8.7%) | MPACT bounced a cent to 1.27 today, but the trend case did not change: this was its TENTH consecutive close below the 200-day average (1.297), the model's twelve-week view still sits at 1.16 - roughly 8.7% below today's price - and, tellingly, the engine's confidence in the bearish FailedBreakout pattern ROSE from while the price went up. A green day on which the model turns more bearish is a bounce inside a downtrend, not a bottom. There is no bad news at the trust - the gateway portfolio is intact and the SAugust distribution is already banked as a receivable - and sector coverage is mildly constructive, with S-REIT borrowing costs easing and active capital recycling across the sleeve. That is precisely why this is a half-trim and not an exit: a distribution-payer de-rating on the rate path deserves a SMALLER position, not a closed one. Selling half returns ~Sof the book's only exposure to cash ahead of two more rate events - the PCE reaction on 27 Aug and Jackson Hole's reaction on 31 Aug - whose S-REIT impact bands are +/-2.5% and +/-3.0%. OPERATIONAL: pre-committed 08-06 ladder. BE PRECISE ABOUT WHICH CLAUSE IS LOAD-BEARING TONIGHT - clause (A) (decisive stop-break) technically breaks a fifth time at 1.27 vs the operative pre-trim stop 1.280, but at only -0.78% / -0.45 ATR it is the SHALLOWEST of the five and is NO LONGER DECISIVE in REIT-2's sense; on its own it would be a watch. The card fires on clause (B) alone: 10th consecutive close below EMA200 (-2.09% / -1.21 ATR) with Target_12Week 1.16 < close (-8.66%) - the L2 / REIT-2 basis. REIT-1 remains affirmative support for a second session (FailedBreakout_Down_20D is the family it trusts). The bull case WAS re-tested and did not clear: close +1c, RSI 38.57 -> 43.17, Momentum pillar off the floor, and Target_12Week UP for the first time in nine sessions (1.15 -> 1.16) - but volume expanded to 11.18M on the up-cent, the whole EMA stack is still above price, and clause (C') (settled close above EMA200 ~1.2972 with Target_12Week >= close) is the ONLY void condition and is not met. Residual trigger (A') (settled close < 1.25) moved FURTHER from firing: today's low was 1.26, so the 1.25 line was not tagged at all after two sessions of exact tags, and the close sits +0.89 ATR above it - portion stays 50%, not more. ACTION PRICE REPRICED UP 1.26 -> 1.27 off the LIVE anchor Entry_Price (= settled close); no carried-forward level. 72,550 rounded down to the 100-share SG board lot = 72,500; residual 72,600 keeps stop 1.25 (NOT re-based on today's bounce, NOT raised). Reprice if the open gaps outside 1.251-1.289. 1wk/4wk estimates UNAVAILABLE because the FailedBreakout_Down_20D row emits a blank Target_Price - systemic finding 7, tonight reproduced on FIVE of eight names. 12wk 1.16 is +13.7% above the 1.02017 DCF anchor - annotated, not applied. PROFIT_ARMED is a FALSE POSITIVE for the 13th session (Gain_ATR -2.67, T12_Progress 109.48% on a position down 4.51%) and is NOT the basis; note both readings moved the RIGHT way tonight as the price rose, confirming the metrics track price correctly but are never gated on profitability - systemic finding 1. Valuation freshly REGENERATED tonight (MoS -0.2449, val_adj -1) but barred from originating per CLAUDE.md section 9 / REIT-2 / SGR-1, and far too shallow to bump a tier. ADR-0020 moot (peak_stop 1.30, erosion 3.85%, class default-off). NINTH issue of the same card - the 08-07 through 08-19 cards all lapsed unfilled because the auto-executor has not run since 2026-08-03 (TWELVE trading days stale); today's miss cost Sand the cumulative gap NARROWED to ~Sas the price recovered, and last night's escalated event-timing risk did NOT materialise because the FOMC reaction session was benign - luck, not process. · news |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.19 | WATCH | 2.19 | 2.13 | n/a | 2.22 (+1.4%) | 1.94 (-11.4%) | No action - not held, and this is a bounce off a 52-week low rather than a turn. Frasers Centrepoint rebounded to 2.19 from yesterday's fresh low and the signal flipped to an oversold-reversal read at conviction 67, the highest in the book - but the label is WATCH, not a buy, and the model still projects 1.94 over twelve weeks, some 11.4% below today's price and the worst forward view in the sleeve. The setup also offers a 3-cent target against a 6-cent stop. Declining is not a close call. OPERATIONAL: never entered the buy pool (Action=WATCH is not a bullish actionable label). Three independent blocks even if it had: (i) SGR-3 - a +29-point single-session conviction jump into a bullish family with NO confirming same-family prior print; the 08-17 ReversalUp_Oversold 41 is separated by two BreakdownDown sessions, so it is the same whipsaw repeating, not a confirming second print, and that 08-17 instance faded within one session before the name made a fresh 52-week low - SGR-3 vindicated an 11th time; (ii) SGR-2 - Target_12Week 1.94 < close 2.19; (iii) reward:risk 0.5:1 on the printed entry/stop/target. Valuation NA (gate off, val_adj 0). |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.46 | WATCH | 2.43 | 2.43 | n/a | n/a | 2.22 (-8.6%) | No action - unheld, and the model's strongest read in the whole book points DOWN. Ascendas REIT edged up to 2.43 but conviction rebounded to a book-high 71 and the signal flipped into the bearish FailedBreakout family - the pattern this REIT book actually trusts. The twelve-week view is 2.22, roughly 8.6% below today's price, and the stop level sits right at the close. Nothing to buy, and nothing held to sell. OPERATIONAL: second of two names tonight where the engine HARDENED its downside view into an up-day (with M44U) - the night's key tell. Row lost its Target_Price on the family flip (it printed 2.43 last night under RallySell_BearTrend) - fourth instance of systemic finding 7 tonight. SGR-2 blocks on the negative 12wk; SGR-1 nulls the -7.65 margin-of-safety read for buy purposes. val_adj -10 applied strictly per formula clamp(round(MoS_FV x 5), -10, 0); the 08-19 entry recorded -8 using x1 - see systemic finding 11, impact nil. |
| M44U | Mapletree Logistics Trust | 1.17 | WATCH | 1.17 | 1.17 | n/a | n/a | 1.06 (-9.4%) | No action - unheld, and a 38-point conviction leap in one session that leaps the WRONG way. Mapletree Logistics rose to 1.17 on heavy volume, yet the engine's confidence in its bearish FailedBreakout pattern jumped from - joint-highest in the book, pointing down, on an up-day. The twelve-week view of 1.06 is 9.4% below the price. OPERATIONAL: first of two names tonight where the model hardened its downside view into a bounce (with A17U). 26.30M units traded. Blank Target_Price - fifth instance of systemic finding 7 tonight. The 08-04 BUY 71 at 1.23 this book declined now trades -4.88%; SGR-3 graded correct an 11th time. SGR-2 blocks on the negative 12wk. Valuation NA. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.86 | WATCH | 0.85 | — | n/a | n/a | 0.77 (-9.9%) | No action - unheld and bearish. CapitaLand Ascott closed 0.855 completely unchanged for a FOURTH session with conviction pinned at 60 on the bearish FailedBreakout pattern - the one name in the sleeve that did not participate in today's bounce at all. The twelve-week view is 0.77, nearly 10% below the actionable price, and the exit strategy on the row reads immediate. A flatlining name with a negative forward view is not an entry. OPERATIONAL: RSI frozen at 37.4655882135 to ten decimal places for a fourth session on bars that genuinely traded - contributes to systemic finding 8 (indicator window not advancing on unchanged-close rows). Blank Target_Price. SGR-2 blocks independently. |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.92 | WATCH | 1.91 | 1.91 | n/a | n/a | 1.81 (-5.2%) | No action - unheld and bearish. Mapletree Industrial closed 1.91 for a fourth straight session with conviction pinned at 52. The twelve-week view of 1.81 is the least-bad in the book and is still 5.2% below the price. Nothing actionable. OPERATIONAL: last night's finding that a conviction-52 bearish label materialised from a zero-information bar has now PERSISTED for a second session on a second such bar - RSI 47.1558402849 identical to ten decimals while the row traded 6.08M units on a 1.89-1.92 range. Reclassified under systemic finding 8: the indicator window is not advancing, so the label persists from a frozen state rather than being freshly computed. Declined on SGR-2's negative-12wk rule, which holds regardless. val_adj nulled by SGR-1 (EPV screen non-informative on distribution-paying trusts; raw formula value would be -10). |
| C38U | CapitaLand Integrated Comm Tr | 2.40 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 2.30 | No action - the engine gives no trade at all (consensus conflict, zero conviction) for a third session. CapitaLand Integrated recovered a cent to 2.38, clawing back part of the 08-19 ex-dividend mark-down, and its twelve-week view of 2.30 is the least-negative in the book at -3.4%. The name now trades 4.0% below the 2.48 level it was chasing three sessions ago - declining to queue there was right, and the re-arm has never triggered. OPERATIONAL: the freshly regenerated valuation DEEPENED its margin of safety from -42.95 to -46.62 on a HIGHER price, which is the EPV screen behaving exactly as SGR-1 describes for distribution-paying trusts. Heaviest volume in the book again at 27.26M. RE-ARM UNCHANGED: a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP at conviction >= 65 with Target_12Week >= close, queued at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price - never at 2.48 or any carried-forward level. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.94 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.85 | No action - the engine gives no trade at all for a SEVENTH straight session. Frasers Logistics closed unchanged at 0.94 with its RSI at 26.9, the only deeply oversold reading in the book and the obvious temptation tonight. Declined: there is no entry, no stop and no target on the row to size or risk-define against, and the twelve-week view of 0.85 slipped further to 9.6% below the price - one of only two names whose forward view DETERIORATED on an up-day for the sleeve. Oversold is not a signal without a trigger. OPERATIONAL: this row still carries the book's only Bargain=True flag alongside a -5.85 margin of safety, and tonight's FRESHLY REGENERATED file reproduces the contradiction exactly (Val_Signal FAIR_VALUE + Bargain True from MoS_DCF +0.034, against MoS_FV -5.85 from the EPV anchor) - proving systemic finding 4 is a live logic defect, not a stale-file artifact. The flag has been true for seven sessions and the name has not risen once. RSI also frozen to ten decimals for a second session - systemic finding 8. SGR-1 nulls the valuation read; SGR-2 blocks on the negative 12wk. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.