Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.29 | SELL 50% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.26 (-2.1%) | n/a | 1.20 (-7.0%) | MPACT has now risen four sessions running - 1.26, 1.27, 1.28, 1.29 - and closed today back above both its 20-day and 50-day averages, with momentum (RSI) crossing the 50 midline for the first time in weeks. That is a genuine improvement and it is the reason this trim is being taken NOW rather than deferred again: the exit is printing at 1.29, the best price of the whole ten-card sequence and level with the very first missed opportunity on 11 Aug. What has NOT improved is the forward view. The model's twelve-week value still sits at 1.20, roughly 7% BELOW today's price, and the engine still reads the pattern as a failed upside breakout with 63% confidence. There is no bad news at the trust - the gateway portfolio is intact, the SAugust distribution is already banked as a receivable, and sector coverage is constructive with SORA under 1% and Singapore's 2026 growth forecast raised to 4.5-5.5% on 11 Aug. That is exactly why this is a half-trim and not an exit: a distribution payer bouncing into overhead resistance deserves a SMALLER position, not a closed one. Selling half returns ~Sto cash immediately ahead of the two widest rate events in the forward calendar - the PCE reaction priced 27 Aug (+/-2.5%) and Jackson Hole priced 31 Aug (+/-3.0%) - both of which the event horizon stances TIGHTEN-TRAIL for the S-REIT sleeve. OPERATIONAL - pre-committed 08-06 ladder, TENTH issue, repriced up 1.27 -> 1.29 off the LIVE anchor Entry_Price (= settled close); no carried-forward level. BE PRECISE ABOUT WHAT FIRES TONIGHT AND WHAT DOES NOT. Clause (A) (decisive stop-break) DOES NOT FIRE AT ALL for the first time in the sequence: close 1.29 is ABOVE the operative pre-trim stop 1.280 (today's LOW tagged 1.280 exactly and held). The card rests on clause (B) ALONE: an 11th consecutive close below EMA200 (1.29 vs 1.29661) with Target_12Week 1.20 < close (-6.98%) - the CLAUDE.md section 9 'close below EMA200 with a negative 12wk' basis, L2 / REIT-2. HONEST CAVEAT: clause (B)'s magnitude has COLLAPSED from -1.21 ATR (08-20) to -0.27 ATR tonight, a 78% reduction in four sessions; the EMA200 undercut is now -0.51%, well inside a single day's range, and is NOT decisive on its own. What keeps the card alive is the OTHER leg, which is not marginal at all: a 12-week view 6.98% under the close. REIT-1 support holds (FailedBreakout_Down_20D is the family this book trusts; RallySell_BearTrend is not in play tonight). The void clause (C') - settled close ABOVE EMA200 ~1.2966 with Target_12Week >= close - is NOT met, but price is now only 0.27 ATR from its first leg; one more up-session voids the ladder and re-arms an add-back. A gap-up OPEN alone does not void it. 72,550 rounded DOWN to the 100-share SG board lot = 72,500; residual 72,600 keeps stop 1.25, NOT re-based and NOT raised on the four-session bounce. Reprice if the 08-25 open gaps outside 1.271-1.309. 1wk/4wk estimates: the FailedBreakout_Down_20D row emits a BLANK Target_Price (systemic finding 7, tonight on four of eight names), so 4wk is genuinely n/a and the 1wk 1.263 is a DERIVED substitution - f=0.30 per L5 (scorecard calib_1w = -0.043, degenerate) applied to the 12wk view in place of the missing Target_Price. 12wk 1.20 is +17.6% above the 1.02017 DCF anchor - annotated per the skill, NOT applied (SGR-1: this book's EPV/DCF layer is broken on distribution payers). PROFIT_ARMED is a FALSE POSITIVE for a 17th session (T12_Progress 107.5% on a position down 3.01%) and is NOT the basis - systemic finding 1. Valuation MoS -0.2449 / val_adj -1 is barred from originating (section 9 / REIT-2 / SGR-1) and far too shallow to bump a tier; portion stays 50%. ADR-0020 moot (peak_stop 1.30, erosion 3.85%, class default-off for this book). Counterfactual support: scorecard optional_trim has FLIPPED to 'cost' at n=47 (median -1.15% 1wk, -2.44% 4wk) - this book systematically under-executes its trims - though that n is heavily dominated by re-issues of THIS card and is not 47 independent observations. · news |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.93 | WATCH | 1.93 | 1.92 | n/a | n/a | 1.85 (-4.1%) | Closest thing this book has to a buy tonight, and it still falls three separate ways short. MINT closed 1.93, its best level in weeks, and flipped from NO TRADE to a WATCH on a failed-breakdown reversal - but conviction is 56 against a 65 floor, the model's twelve-week value is 1.85, about 4% BELOW today's price, and this is a single fresh print with no confirming second signal behind it. Management news is mildly constructive rather than actionable: CEO Ler Lily moves to group CFO on 1 Oct and is replaced by Anand Tze Ming Chandran, currently head of Mapletree's Asia-Pacific data centres - a data-centre operator taking the top job at a trust pivoting to data centres. Worth watching, not worth buying into a negative forward view. OPERATIONAL: fails the 65 floor by 9 pts; SGR-2 hard rule (no REIT entry into Target_12Week < Close, -4.1% here); SGR-3 (single fresh print - 08-21 was NO TRADE, 08-19/20 AVOID - needs a confirming 2nd same-family print at conv >= 65); L1 explicitly discounts FailedBreakdown_Up_20D chases (~0.25 hit, ~60% stop-first). Valuation MoS -17.43 / QP True would give val_adj -10 but SGR-1 nulls the layer for REIT buys - it changes nothing, the name fails on technicals alone. RE-ARM: a confirming 2nd bullish same-family print at conv >= 65 WITH Target_12Week >= Close, queued at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price. Also carries MSCI Aug review exposure 08-31 (+/-1.2%). |
| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.20 | WATCH | 2.20 | 2.20 | n/a | n/a | 1.96 (-10.9%) | Frasers Centrepoint edged up to 2.20 with momentum improving (RSI, but the engine still reads it as a failed upside breakout and its twelve-week value of 1.96 sits nearly 11% below today's price - the widest negative forward gap in the book. Not investable here. OPERATIONAL: bearish family, not in the buy pool. Note the 08-20 ReversalUp_Oversold conv-67 WATCH print decayed to AVOID in a single session - SGR-3's one-session-whipsaw rule vindicated for a second time on this book. Val_Signal NA (blank EPV) so the valuation layer abstains entirely. |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.45 | WATCH | 2.45 | 2.45 | n/a | n/a | 2.26 (-7.8%) | CapitaLand Ascendas gave back a cent to 2.45 and the model's confidence in the bearish read fell sharply,. Twelve-week value 2.26, about 8% below the close. Bearish family, negative forward view, no case either way. OPERATIONAL: bearish family, not in the buy pool. MoS -7.65 / Quality_Pass False -> val_adj -10, nulled by SGR-1. Carries MSCI Aug review exposure 08-31 (+/-1.2%). |
| M44U | Mapletree Logistics Trust | 1.18 | WATCH | 1.18 | 1.18 | n/a | n/a | 1.08 (-8.5%) | Mapletree Logistics ticked up to 1.18 with RSI recovering to 45.6, but the signal family stays bearish and the twelve-week value of 1.08 is roughly 8.5% below the close. No entry basis. OPERATIONAL: bearish family, not in the buy pool. Val_Signal NA (negative EPV/share) so the valuation layer abstains - the SGR-1(b) silent-abstention mode, logged again. |
| HMN | CAPITALAND and ASCOTT STAPLE U | 0.87 | WATCH | 0.87 | 0.87 | n/a | n/a | 0.80 (-8.0%) | CapitaLand Ascott rose to 0.87 and is the only name in the book the model now classes as Trending, with the strongest momentum score in the sleeve (57). But conviction on the bearish read has decayed three sessions straight - -> 46 - which is fading conviction in a bearish signal, not the emergence of a bullish one, and the twelve-week value of 0.80 is still 8% under the close. OPERATIONAL: bearish family, not in the buy pool. Genuinely the most improved technical picture in the book and the first to watch for a family flip - a bullish print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= Close re-arms it. MoS -0.79 / QP True -> val_adj -4, nulled by SGR-1. |
| C38U | CapitaLand Integrated Comm Tr | 2.41 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 2.33 | CICT closed 2.41, its fourth straight advance, and is the one name in the book trading ABOVE its 200-day average with a twelve-week value (2.33) only 3% below the price - the least negative forward view in the sleeve. But the engine has printed NO TRADE for four consecutive sessions on 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' (verbatim), so there is no entry, no stop and no target to act on. OPERATIONAL: conv 0, no price-bearing fields emitted. RE-ARM unchanged: a bullish print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= Close, queued at the THEN-LIVE Entry_Price. Worth flagging that the book's best-positioned name is invisible to the signal engine four sessions running. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.95 | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | 0.86 | Frasers Logistics closed 0.95 with RSI recovering hard from deeply oversold (26.9 -> 37.5 over four sessions), but the engine has printed NO TRADE for four straight sessions on 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' (verbatim) - no entry, stop or target. Twelve-week value 0.86, about 9% below the close. OPERATIONAL: conv 0. Its fairvalue row remains the book's cleanest example of the broken screen - Val_Signal FAIR_VALUE and Bargain True while MoS_FV reads -5.85 (systemic finding 4). RE-ARM: bullish print at conv >= 65 with Target_12Week >= Close. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
11 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.