Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.21 | SELL ALL | 1.21 | 1.25⚠ | n/a | n/a | 1.03 (-14.9%) | Mapletree PanAsia Commercial Trust broke to a new 52-week low today - the session's low of 1.2000 is the annual low itself - and closed at 1.21, a seventh straight close beneath our 1.250 risk line with the breach doubling to 3.2%. The trust now trades below every moving average we follow, including the 200-day at 1.291 (-6.3%), while the model's 12-week view has fallen again to 1.03, roughly 15% below today's price and now within 1% of the intrinsic DCF floor. With US inflation data tomorrow and Fed and Bank of Japan decisions inside the next week - the latter directly relevant to this trust's yen-funded Japanese offices - we are stepping fully out of a position already 9% underwater rather than carrying it through a rate gauntlet with no risk line left to defend. Valuation played no part in this decision (SGR-1/REIT-2 - the REIT fair-value layer is treated as non-informative here, val_adj 0). OPERATIONAL: full exit at market on the 2026-09-11 open; proceeds ~Sbook goes 100% cash at ~SThis is a REPRICE of the 09-02/03/04/07/08/09 full-exit thread from 1.23 -> 1.21, NOT a new derivation - the 09-09 card's re-derive trigger (open above ~1.251) did not fire (open 1.22). IMPORTANT - the label does NOT carry this card tonight: adj conviction 58 + 0 (SGR-1) + 0 (scorecard) = 58, BELOW the 65 floor, because the family flipped to BreakdownDown_52W which is n=1 report-only and does not inherit the FailedBreakout_Down_20D +6. Origination is the L2 / REIT-2 decisive-stop-break class (same basis as the 09-08 card at 52), satisfied more emphatically than on any prior session of the thread. TIER DIVERGENCE: the engine printed 49.19% / REDUCING tonight (down from 80.07% / CLOSING) - taken at 100% anyway because a decisive stop-break is a position-level exit, not a tier-scaled trim, and this book's measured failure mode is not cutting (optional_trim n=47, median withheld 4wk -4.51% [cost]). Minimum-compliance fallback if the executor follows the engine tier:, explicitly the inferior branch. NOT a profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED is a defect on a -9.02% position (Gain_ATR -4.82, T12_Progress 117.48 because Target_12Week 1.03 < Avg_Cost 1.33) - systemic finding 2. L2/L3/REIT-2 applied; REIT-1's qualitative rule satisfied via the decisive stop-break branch. ADR-0020 does not fire (5.3% erosion vs 15%, unconfigured). Estimates: 1wk n/a (Est band exactly symmetric close +/-2.00%, 6th session), 4wk n/a (Target_Price null, 6th session), 12wk 1.03 = -14.9% (only 0.96% above the 1.0202 DCF anchor). RE-DERIVE if the 09-11 open gaps above ~1.228 (+1.5%, first genuine reclaim attempt of the thread); REPRICE if below ~1.192. Twenty-first consecutive dropped card - Auto-Executor stale since 2026-08-03 (27 sessions), measured thread cost now ~S. · news |
| PORTFOLIO | sgreit book | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No acquisitions: a fourteenth consecutive session without a single bullish actionable label across the eight REITs, and every name still carries a negative model 12-week view (-3.6% to -17.1%), so SGR-2 bars each independently. The one genuine near-miss is M44U, which printed WATCH / ReversalUp_Oversold / Consolidation_Bullish at conviction 58 - the first bullish-family print in this sleeve in two weeks - but it fails on four grounds: WATCH is not a buy label (Action_Rationale: 'Flat; weak bullish (conv=58); monitor for entry trigger'), 58 is below the 65 floor, its 12wk view is -13.3%, and SGR-3 requires a confirming second same-family print. Re-arm trigger for M44U: a second ReversalUp_Oversold-family print at conviction >= 65 with Target_12Week >= Close. One disposal: the N2IU full exit. Post-execution the book is 100% cash at ~SAnticipate slot empty (no BUY - ANTICIPATE print in the last 3 snapshots). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
23 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.