Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.20 | SELL ALL | 1.20 | 1.25⚠ | 1.19 (-0.8%) | n/a | 1.00 (-16.7%) | Mapletree PanAsia Commercial Trust set another new 52-week low today - the session's low of 1.1800 is the annual low itself, the second consecutive day it has made rather than approached one - and closed at 1.20, an eighth straight close beneath our 1.250 risk line with the breach widening to 4.0%. The trust trades below every moving average we follow, including the 200-day at 1.290 (-7.0%), and the model's 12-week view has fallen again to 1.00, about 17% below today's price and now BELOW the 1.0202 intrinsic DCF floor rather than converging onto it. The engine hardened tonight, moving from a 49% reduce back to a STRONG SELL targeting a full exit, and its signal family is one the scorecard now grades well (RallySell_BearTrend on sells: 6 graded, 83% at one week, 100% at four). With US inflation data printing tonight and Fed and Bank of Japan decisions inside the next week - the latter directly relevant to this trust's yen-funded Japanese offices - we are stepping fully out of a position already 9.8% underwater rather than carrying it through a rate gauntlet with no risk line left to defend. Valuation played no part in this decision (SGR-1/REIT-2 - the REIT fair-value layer is treated as non-informative here, val_adj 0). OPERATIONAL: full exit at market on the 2026-09-14 open; proceeds ~Sbook goes 100% cash at ~SREPRICE of the 09-02..09-10 full-exit thread from 1.21 -> 1.20, NOT a new derivation - the 09-10 card's re-derive trigger (open above ~1.228) did not fire (open 1.21) and its reprice trigger (below ~1.192) did not fire either. FIRST TIME THE LABEL CARRIES THE CARD: adj conviction 61 + 0 (SGR-1) + 7 (RallySell_BearTrend|sell, n=6, ACTIONABLE) = 68, ABOVE the 65 floor - the L2/REIT-2 decisive-stop-break class also holds independently and would suffice alone, as it did on 09-08 (adj 52) and 09-10 (adj 58). FLAG: +7 is a 13-point sign inversion of REIT-1's retired mirror-era -6 prior on this exact cell; REIT-1's qualitative rule (never exit a REIT on a RallySell label alone) is still honoured because the stop-break branch is satisfied independently - but the numeric case behind that rule has inverted and section C of the learnings has not been reviewed in nine weeks. No material tier divergence tonight: the engine itself printed 80.07% / CLOSING with Action_Rationale 'REDUCE 80% (target full exit)'. NOT a profit-take: PROFIT_ARMED is a defect on a -9.77% position (Gain_ATR -5.02, T12_Progress 120.00 because Target_12Week 1.00 < Avg_Cost 1.33) - systemic finding 2. L2/L3/REIT-2 applied. ADR-0020 does not fire (5.3% erosion vs 15%, unconfigured). Estimates: 1wk ~1.19 LOW CONFIDENCE (Est band [-3.87%,+2.00%]; Est_High has been pinned at exactly +2.00% for nine straight sessions so the band is one-sided by construction - systemic finding 4), 4wk n/a (Target_Price null, 7th session), 12wk 1.00 = -16.7% and now 2.0% BELOW the DCF anchor. EXECUTION OPEN IS CPI-SENSITIVE: US Aug CPI prints tonight 20:30 SGT and SGX first prices it at the Monday 14-Sep open, which is exactly when this order executes; S-REIT leg [-3.5,+2.5] HIGH confidence. RE-DERIVE if the open gaps above ~1.218 (+1.5%) - a CPI relief reclaim would be the thread's first and warrants a fresh read; REPRICE and still execute if below ~1.182. Twenty-second consecutive dropped card - Auto-Executor stale since 2026-08-03 (28 sessions), measured thread cost now ~S. · news |
| PORTFOLIO | sgreit book | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No acquisitions. The book saw its first bullish actionable label since 2026-07-17 - A17U printed BUY / OversoldBounce_Up at conviction 68, Buy_Rank 1, which clears the 65 floor both raw and adjusted - but it is declined on SGR-2 (12wk 1.99 vs close 2.34 = -15.0%), SGR-3 (single fresh print with no same-family predecessor), an internally incoherent print (BUY on Consolidation_Bearish, Momentum 29, bar low = Low_52W) and a 0.6:1 risk/reward. M44U supplied the confirming counter-example the same night, whipsawing from yesterday's WATCH/ReversalUp_Oversold straight back to AVOID/BreakdownDown_52W. All eight names still carry a negative model 12-week view, now ranging -11.4% to -18.4% and every one worse than last night, so SGR-2 bars each independently; three names (N2IU 1.1800, A17U 2.3100, HMN 0.8350) set fresh 52-week lows tonight and four print BreakdownDown_52W. RSI is sub-32 on six of eight with no bullish divergence anywhere - an extending downtrend, not a washout. One disposal: the N2IU full exit, at market on the 2026-09-14 open. Post-execution the book is 100% cash at ~SAnticipate slot empty (no BUY - ANTICIPATE print in the last 3 snapshots). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
24 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.043 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
48 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.