US — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE: AMD BUY 18 @539.28 small starter (sole fusion-clearing buy; PullbackBuy cv71->adj66, quality-pass; not extended; 12wk +20%). DISPOSE: GLW 75/150 @~174.41 (decisive stop break + double-downgrade-to-sell, halve; reset stop 165); NVDA 30/100 @~212.50 (profit-take armed+RSI_DIV+dead-fwd; US-19 30%; keep 70); SNDK 5/15 @~1615 (profit-take armed 116%+dead-fwd+repeated NO-TRADE; re-affirm re-priced; keep 10). DELL 07-15 queue WITHDRAWN (NO TRADE cv0, -9.8%). GOOGL/KLAC/LLY/MU/NBIS holds (armed-not-fired trail-raises; MU #1 watch first bearish label, NBIS #2 watch). SPCX muted (stop 135). Broad AI-hardware risk-off -> bank gains + halve the downgraded loser, one small starter.
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 529.14 | BUY | 539.28 | 494.30 | 534.40 (-0.9%) | 538.50 (-0.1%) | 647.28 (+20.0%) | Small quality starter on the sole fusion-clearing buy: AMD pulled back into the broad 07-15 AI-hardware selloff and now prints PullbackBuy_VWAP cv71 (bankable +5 cell, F-Score 8, quality-pass) with strong fundamentals -- analyst PT raises to -640 (Goldman/Wells/Roy), MI400 launch 2026, OpenAI+Meta 6GW deals -- so the dip is the entry, not a break. Adj conviction 71 + val_adj -10 (MoS -17.42, priced ~17x past EPV) + bias +5 = 66 (clears floor 65). Q_Pass True. Size x0.5 (MoS<=-3): 0.4924 x x 20% = x0.5 = -> @539.28 =; and max_position 60% not binding. Buy-limit @539.28 (close 529.14 below limit -> fills ~open, no chase; eD +0.26 not extended). Starter-only into a risk-off tape: near-term 1-4wk estimates are FLAT (534/538 vs 539 entry), 12wk strong (+20%). Chain: PullbackBuy bankable +5 -> quality-pass -> val_adj -10/size 0.5 -> not extended so buy the model limit -> news bullish (PT raises) -> overlay neutral -> memory L1 prefer PullbackBuy. · news |
| GLW | Corning | 174.41 | SELL 50% | 174.41 | 165.00 | 176.49 (+1.2%) | 175.09 (+0.4%) | 202.24 (+16.0%) | Halve a -12.58% loser on a decisive stop break amplified by a fresh sell downgrade. GLW broke its 182.33 stop decisively (close 174.41, -4.34%) on a -7% day, and the news turned name-specific: Seeking Alpha issued a DOUBLE DOWNGRADE TO SELL, the stock dropped ~13% intraday, valuation is stretched (~60x earnings) and revenue has missed 3 of the last 4 quarters. Decisive stop break = a signal-based exit; the sell downgrade + valuation crack amplify it. Trim 50% ( @ ~174.41, proceeds), NOT a full exit, because the model 12wk is still +15.96% (Est_12W 202.24), price holds above EMA200 (141.82), and Cramer/some call the drop extreme/overdone. Keep 75, reset stop 165 (below the 174 washout) -> exit the rest on a 2nd decisive close <165 or the model 12wk turning negative. Chain: decisive stop break -> news downgrade-to-sell + valuation crack (override toward sell) -> model 12wk still +15.9% + above EMA200 caps at 50% -> memory L2/US-17. · news |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 212.50 | SELL 30% | 212.50 | 197.06 | 213.13 (+0.3%) | 213.74 (+0.6%) | 216.21 (+1.7%) | Bank a third of a fully-armed winner as momentum diverges. NVDA is PROFIT_ARMED (T12_prog 98.28%, essentially at its 12wk target) and now fires the ADR-0012 profit-take: tick (a) RSI_DIV printed (bearish momentum divergence at the highs, new this session) + tick (c) dead forward (Est_12W 216.21 < 1.02x212.50=216.75, +1.7%; Est_4W +0.6%). G1 shield does not apply (cv0 NoSignal, not a fresh breakout cv>=80); tick (c) fires regardless. The 07-14 trim was withdrawn (US-19, forward had recovered) -- RSI_DIV + a now-dead forward is the deterioration confirmation it was waiting for. US-19 caps the re-fire at first-fire 30% -> @ ~212.50 (proceeds). Val amplify n/a: MoS -2.33 (>-3) and G2 anyway (T12 216.21 > DCF 163.98). Keep 70, trail-raise 197.06 (2xATR chandelier). News CONFIRMS (broad AI-hardware/memory profit-taking selloff -- Buffett AI-gambling warning + SK Hynix supply fears -- not an NVDA-specific break). 12wk 216.21 exceeds DCF anchor 163.98 -- projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Chain: armed 98% + RSI_DIV + dead forward -> US-19 first-fire 30% -> val G2-suppressed -> news broad selloff confirms -> memory L3/US-19. · news |
| SNDK | Sandisk | 1615.00 | SELL 30% | 1615.00 | 1520.00 | 1617.16 (+0.1%) | 1599.31 (-1.0%) | 1389.68 (-14.0%) | Re-affirm the never-executed profit-take, re-priced to today close. SNDK is PROFIT_ARMED (T12_prog 116.21%, 16% past its 12wk target) and fires ADR-0012 on tick (c) dead forward (Est_12W 1389.68 << 1.02x1615=1647, -13.95%) + tick (d) repeated NO TRADE. This trim was proposed 07-11/07-14/07-15 and never executed (monitor 0 trades, still) -> L3 re-affirm, re-priced DOWN to the new 1615 close (SNDK fell ~8% in the memory selloff, so it banks less than the un-filled 1757.82 card but the armed de-risk still stands). US-19 caps at first-fire 30% -> @ ~1615 (proceeds). Val amplify (MoS -4.77 would bump G2-SUPPRESSED: T12 1389.68 > DCF 1005.14 by 38%, RevGr 0.98 hyper-growth -> DCF unreliable. Keep 10 (core), trail 1520. News CONFIRMS holding the core, not a thesis change: SNDK is +720% YTD on the AI-NAND supercycle; today is a sector-wide memory selloff (SK Hynix Nasdaq listing -> supply-glut fears). 12wk exceeds DCF 1005.14. Chain: armed 116% + dead forward + repeated NO TRADE -> US-19 first-fire 30% -> val G2-suppressed -> news memory-selloff confirms -> memory L3/US-13/US-19. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A | 370.92 | HOLD | — | 350.21 | 374.16 | 381.49 | 392.65 | Armed (T12_prog 94.47%) but zero fire ticks: forward +5.9% alive (Est_12W 392.65), cv ROSE, close 370.92 (+3.2%) with no other warning. Overlay catalyst-hold through 07-22 Q2 earnings -- no pre-trim, trail through the event. Trail-raise 350.21 (up from 345); overlay hard invalidation on a close <345. |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 224.50 | HOLD | — | 210.15 | 226.46 | 226.86 | 233.58 | Armed (T12_prog 96.11%, +27.74%) with 2 consecutive settled NO-TRADE cv0 -- mechanically tick (d), but US-17/systemic#2: the NO-TRADE-cv0 is an artifact and the forward is still ALIVE (Est_12W 233.58, +4.0%; Est_4W +1.0%), so do not fire. Price -2.4% on the semis pullback but not a breakdown. Trail 210.15 (chandelier 187 < 210.15 -> keep the higher line). WATCH: a 3rd NO-TRADE with a flattening/negative forward would fire a trim. |
| LLY | Eli Lilly | 1156.63 | HOLD | — | 1106.00 | 1165.00 | 1185.11 | 1205.15 | Armed (T12_prog 95.97%), cv43 (from 46, no collapse), forward +4.2% alive (Est_12W 1205.15). Close 1156.63. No fire tick. Keep stop 1106 (chandelier 1084.91 < 1106 -> hold the higher line); overlay hard invalidation 975. |
| MU | Micron | 904.28 | HOLD | — | 855.00 | 904.96 | 968.19 | 928.54 | #1 WATCH after GLW: MU fell -8% in the memory selloff and now prints its first bearish label (AVOID, RallySell_BearTrend cv49). But no dispose yet -- close 904.28 holds above the 855 cost/stop (no decisive break), armed (T12_prog 97.39%, +5.66%), and the forward is still positive (Est_4W 968.19 +7.1%; Est_12W 928.54 +2.7% barely alive). No genuine fire tick (only PROFIT_ARMED; tick c does not fire). Hold, stop 855 (cost 855.84); scan Stop 1067.10 is degenerate (above close, systemic#1). News CONCERN: sector-wide memory selloff (SK Hynix supply fears / China competition). Exit on a close <855 or the forward turning negative. · news |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | 199.51 | HOLD | — | 185.00 | 201.34 | 214.67 | 232.44 | #2 WATCH: NBIS RECOVERED +2.8% to 199.51 (above the reset 185 stop), NO TRADE cv0, forward +16.5% alive (Est_12W 232.44). Overlay standing instruction: keep the core, no adds until the Meta-cloud overhang clears; invalidation = Meta deal materially at risk / builds own cloud (threatened, not confirmed). Hold 300, stop 185; exit on a decisive close <185 OR the model 12wk turning negative OR confirmed Meta-deal impairment. · news |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | — | HOLD | — | 135.00 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Private, no public quote -> muted on the verdict, news-assessed only. News CONCERN unchanged: insider lock-up overhang (first ~20% frees after Q2 results late July, ~7% tranches monthly Aug-Oct). Hold on manual stop 135; auto-unmute when it appears in the scan with a non-null Close. · news |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 346.91 | NO ACTION | 345.60 | 319.62 | 348.77 (+0.9%) | 347.24 (+0.5%) | 367.66 (+6.4%) | Strong but does NOT clear the anticipate slot: JPM closed BUY-ANTICIPATE cv83 (AnticipationUp_VCP, buy-stop @345.60) but printed ANTICIPATE in only 1 of the last 3 snapshots (the prior two were STRONG BUY PullbackBuy cv88) -> fails the >=2/3 ANTICIPATE gate. Also OVERVALUED_VS_RI (Q_Pass False) would block a fresh entry. WATCH: re-arms the anticipate slot if it prints BUY-ANTICIPATE again next session. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
71 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.071 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
23 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.