US — End-of-Day Verdict
ACQUIRE: DELL QUEUED buy-limit @423.60 (, sole fusion-clearing buy; extended so queue). DISPOSE: SNDK 5@~1757.82 (ADR-0012 profit-take, armed 116%+dead-forward+repeated NO-TRADE; US-19 first-fire 30%; keep 10). NBIS #1 WATCH held (decisive 200-stop break but +19% forward + overlay keep-core; stop reset 185). NVDA 07-14 trim WITHDRAWN (US-19, recovered +4.1%). GOOGL/KLAC/LLY/MU/GLW holds (armed-not-fired trail-raises; MU recovered). SPCX muted (stop 135).
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | Dell Technologies | 457.54 | BUY — QUEUED @423.60 | 423.60 | 389.81 | 456.12 (+7.7%) | 488.26 (+15.3%) | 520.20 (+22.8%) | Sole buy clearing fusion in an 8-deep pool: STRONG BUY on the bankable PullbackBuy_VWAP cell (+5), quality-pass (F=8), flagged FAIR_VALUE + Bargain (DCF 485.61 > price). DDOG/BAC/MS cleared the numeric floor but are quality-gate blocked. Extended (eD -1.16, +8% above the 423.60 pullback entry) so QUEUE the limit, no chase (L1/US-9/US-10). Adj 83 = 88, val_adj -10, bias +5; size x0.5 (MoS -3.06 <= -3) ->; GTC limit @423.60, expires anchor+3 sessions. Reprice/withdraw if conv<65 or expiry passes. · news |
| SNDK | Sandisk | 1757.82 | SELL 30% | 1757.82 | 1520.00 | 1739.78 (-1.0%) | 1651.87 (-6.0%) | 1516.94 (-13.7%) | ADR-0012 profit-take on a huge extended winner (+720% YTD): PROFIT_ARMED (T12_prog 116%, 16% past target) + dead/negative forward (Est_12W 1516.94, -13.7%; tick c) + repeated NO TRADE (tick d). Bank a third; core thesis (AI NAND supercycle, Meta supply deal) intact so keep 10. US-19 caps the re-fired soft-tick trim at first-fire 30% (no escalation to 50%); sell-side val amplify G2-suppressed (DCF 1005 << T12, hyper-growth). Re-affirm of the un-executed 07-11/07-14 cards, re-priced to the new 1757.82 close. Keep 10, trail 1520. 12wk exceeds DCF anchor 1005.14. · news |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | 194.09 | NO ACTION | — | 185.00 | 195.25 | 207.30 | 231.25 | Decisive break of the manual 200 stop (close 194.09, -2.96%) on an idiosyncratic -7.8% day, but HOLD the core, NOT a dispose: L2 needs stop-break + NEGATIVE-12wk and the model 12wk is +19% POSITIVE; NO-TRADE alone is never a dispose (US-17); overlay standing instruction is keep-core-no-adds-until-Meta-cloud-clears. News is the 2nd leg of the Meta Compute competition selloff (down ~29% from 06-18 peak) but analysts split (SemiAnalysis: fears misplaced), Nebius already on-selling >50% of the Meta deal to third parties, +155% YTD -> invalidation threatened, not confirmed. Reset the true exit line to 185; exit on a 2nd decisive close <~194 OR 12wk turning negative OR confirmed Meta-deal impairment. Optional partial defensive trim logged for counterfactual grading only. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet A | 359.51 | HOLD | — | 345.00 | 360.58 | 376.48 | 383.08 | Armed (T12_prog 93.85%) but zero fire ticks: forward +6.6% alive, cv rose, no stop break. Catalyst-hold through 07-22 earnings per overlay (no pre-trim); trail 345 invalidation. |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 230.37 | HOLD | — | 210.15 | 232.29 | 233.50 | 242.19 | Armed (+31%, 95% of T12) with a 2nd consecutive settled NO-TRADE (tick d count now 2) BUT forward +5.1% alive and rising, price rallied +3.7% = improvement not deterioration -> trail-raise not trim (US-17; systemic tick-d fix pending). Stop holds 210.15 (2xATR gives 194 < 210.15). A 3rd NO-TRADE with a flattening forward would fire. |
| LLY | Eli Lilly | 1152.54 | HOLD | — | 1106.00 | 1162.05 | 1182.43 | 1217.39 | Armed (94% of T12), forward +5.6% alive; cv (-12 <20, no collapse). Fell -2.5% on an up day (weak, watch). Keep the higher protective stop 1106 (2xATR ~1076 lower); overlay hard invalidation 975. |
| MU | Micron | 983.12 | HOLD | — | 855.00 | 987.21 | 1025.07 | 1045.10 | RECOVERED +4.9% to 983.12 (US-12 marginal-breach hold vindicated); armed (+14.9%, 94% of T12), forward +6.3% alive. Scan stop 1131.90 is above close (degenerate long stop, systemic #1) -> manual 855 (breakeven) stands. Decisive-break trigger: close < 855 or an HBM crack. |
| GLW | Corning | 187.64 | HOLD | — | 182.33 | 189.45 | 194.24 | 217.65 | NO TRADE cv0, -5.9% but forward +16.0% alive, close 187.64 > stop 182.33 (no break) -> NO TRADE alone never a dispose (US-17). Hold, stop 182.33. |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | — | HOLD | — | 135.00 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Private, no public quote -> muted on the verdict, news-assessed only. News CONCERN unchanged: insider lock-up overhang (first ~20% frees after Q2 results late July, ~7% tranches monthly Aug-Oct). Hold on manual stop 135; auto-unmute when it appears in the scan with a non-null Close. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
69 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.071 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
23 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.