Recommendations
2 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 176.99 | SELL 50% | 176.99 | 174.01 | 177.69 (+0.4%) | 181.42 (+2.5%) | 165.58 (-6.4%) | KLA has printed a strong-sell signal for seven straight sessions and its 12-week outlook is now 6.5% below today's price; its stop has been walked down 36% from its peak without the position ever being cut, so half the stake goes. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0020 latched (36.03% erosion, 1st fire, veto-immune) + US-87 independent gate (7x settled SSR cv83 Sell_Rank 1, 12wk -6.45%). Stop-break leg (+1.71% reclaim of 174.01) and EMA leg (+1.22%) dissolved, stated per US-86; 09--250 pre-commit DISSOLVED on the reclaim. G2 withholds MoS bump. Residual on 174.01. Execute at the 09- open; 14th unexecuted session (ADR-0019). · news |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1152.93 | SELL 30% | 1152.93 | 1114.09 | 1154.59 (+0.1%) | 1122.67 (-2.6%) | 1173.75 (+1.8%) | Lilly printed a second straight strong-sell signal at the close, which is the condition we wrote down in advance for trimming 30%; the 4-week model sees it about 2.6% lower and the 12-week view is flat. OPERATIONAL: 09-17 US-88 pre-commit fired on its 1st limb (2nd consecutive settled SSR cv75->78, Sell_Rank 2) - US-18/34 lone-flip bar satisfied. No amplify (MoS -2.63 > -3). Avg_Cost blank (US-55) - signal trim, not profit-take. Residual 49 on trail raised 1111.01->1114.09. · news |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 223.54 | SELL 30% | 223.54 | 234.32⚠ | 225.50 (+0.9%) | 250.97 (+12.3%) | 300.54 (+34.4%) | Nebius closed 4.6% below its stop for a second straight session and has never been trimmed since that stop peaked, so risk discipline requires a 30% cut even though its price hikes and 12-week outlook remain the strongest in the book. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0020 latched since 09-01 (US-73), veto-immune, pinned at 30% (US-); amplify inapplicable (US-78). AVOID cv64 is a lone print, no escalation (L2 fails: 12wk +34.45%). Residual 140 on 234.32; <=203.87 trigger and 09-23 time limb carried. Discharges on the recorded cut. · news |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 559.82 | BUY — QUEUED @553.87 | 553.87 | 517.06 | 567.22 (+2.4%) | 571.90 (+3.3%) | 649.61 (+17.3%) | AMD has held a bullish signal for four sessions and told partners it is raising prices about 10% from Q4, a sign of strong demand; we buy on a small pullback to the model entry rather than chasing the close at the day's high. OPERATIONAL: 09-17 queue @527.75 REPRICED to the live Entry_Price (provenance rule, US-75 no demotion to anticipate slot). US-64: printed Buy Stop below close = LIMIT (S23). val_adj suppressed US-41 (4.0x); x0.50 MoS modulator; manual 1.5-ATR stop (US-47). CONDITIONAL ON US-56 (record KLAC/NBIS disposals first). · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing C | 434.67 | BUY — QUEUED @434.67 | 434.67 | 420.29 | 439.83 (+1.2%) | 451.04 (+3.8%) | 468.82 (+7.9%) | TSMC is the top-ranked strong buy in the scan after four strengthening sessions, and August revenue grew 53% year on year; entry is at the model price with a defined stop, at half size because the valuation screen reads it as rich. OPERATIONAL: raw 86 clears US-16 chase-family bar (85); quality PASS F=9; L1 cell hit_4w.200 / stop-first.375 - admissible, not favoured. Do not chase a >1.5% gap (US-9). Manual 1.5-ATR stop (printed 428.98 = 0.59-ATR noise). S24: EPV/DCF likely ADR-ratio mis-scaled. CONDITIONAL ON US-56. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 349.54 | NO ACTION | 349.54 | 340.88 | 352.92 (+1.0%) | 352.62 (+0.9%) | 371.34 (+6.2%) | Alphabet's profit-take rule fired on a bearish momentum divergence after it hit a new high and gave back almost 3% intraday, but three loss-prevention sales take priority tonight, so the 30% trim is deferred with a tighter stop. OPERATIONAL: armed (Gain_ATR 26.16) + tick (a) RSI_DIV; G1 n/a; (b) blocked US-83; (c) fails. Displaced by the <=3 DISPOSE cap (US-62). Trail 334.31->340.88. PRE-COMMIT 30% : fires at EOD us_signals_20260922_060011.csv+ if any non-PROFIT_ARMED Exit_Warning persists, or settled close <=340.88; lapses after EOD us_signals_20260924_060011.csv. 09-16 pre-commit lapsed unfired. |
| OKTA | Okta Inc. | 182.37 | NO ACTION | 182.37 | 172.70 | 183.23 (+0.5%) | 189.40 (+3.9%) | 181.06 (-0.7%) | Okta slipped 4% and its profit-take rule shows one warning, but we hold through its own Oktane investor event (-24 September) rather than trim just before the catalyst. OPERATIONAL: armed Gain_ATR 4.40; tick (c) only; (b) blocked by US-49 (move into NO TRADE). Catalyst hold (US-85). Re-commitment unchanged: 30% floor, first eligible EOD us_signals_20260925_060011.csv. Trail holds 172.70 (US-65). |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 222.27 | HOLD | 222.27 | 220.48 | 223.49 (+0.5%) | 223.31 (+0.5%) | 233.91 (+5.2%) | Nvidia closed back above its stop and its signal improved to a hold, with the CEO saying he expects chip sales to double next year, so the conditional trim lapses and the position is held. OPERATIONAL: 09-14 pre-commit time limb not met (close 222.27 > 220.48, +0.81%) - lapsed unfired. Avg_Cost blank 6th week (US-55). · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1015.80 | HOLD | 1015.80 | 953.77 | 1017.74 (+0.2%) | 1121.29 (+10.4%) | 1354.17 (+33.3%) | Micron made a new high, up 3.9%, with a 12-week view of +33%, so it is simply held on its stop. OPERATIONAL: PROFIT_ARMED on the firing bar only (prior EOD Gain_ATR 2.68, US-84); no tick. Chandelier 930.31 < carried 953.77. |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | 152.71 | HOLD | 152.71 | 142.88 | 149.89 (-1.8%) | 153.74 (+0.7%) | 170.41 (+11.6%) | SpaceX's signal recovered to a hold and the divergence warning cleared, so we hold through the Nasdaq- re-weight (effective September) and the 24 September lock-up expiry, with the stop nudged up. OPERATIONAL: armed, no tick. Trail 142.72->142.88 (2.0x ATR off 156.87). · news |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 323.60 | HOLD | 323.60 | 302.25 | 324.30 (+0.2%) | 325.66 (+0.6%) | 355.46 (+9.8%) | Cloudflare fell 3% from an early new high and the signal went quiet, but the 12-week view is still +10% and the stop is untouched, so it is held. OPERATIONAL: armed on prior EOD; (b) blocked US-49; (c) fails; (d) 1 print. |
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de | 72.27 | HOLD | 72.27 | 71.84 | 72.64 (+0.5%) | 72.45 (+0.2%) | 74.81 (+3.5%) | Vista is held on its stop, which is only 0.6% below the close; a settled close under 71.84 is the exit line. OPERATIONAL: PROFIT_ARMED at -5.9% is the US-26 loser artifact; printed 68.50 stop declined (S1). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
230 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.132 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.