Recommendations
3 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 183.97 | SELL 30% | 183.97 | 174.01 | 185.31 (+0.7%) | 188.52 (+2.5%) | 167.00 (-9.2%) | KLA's stop has been walked 36% below its peak and the position has never been cut, so risk discipline still requires trimming 30%; the strong-sell streak broke tonight in a chip rally, which is why the card steps down from 50% to the 30% floor, and the 12-week view still sits 9% below the price. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0020 latched (36.03% erosion, 1st fire, veto-immune), now SOLE origination -> pinned 30% (US-39); US-87 gate lapsed (SSR cv83 -> AVOID cv64, 12wk leg still -9.22%) -> de-escalated 50%->30% per US-32. Amplify inapplicable (US-78). Residual 700 on 174.01. 15th unexecuted session (ADR-0019). · news |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1164.89 | SELL 30% | 1164.89 | 1118.86 | 1168.40 (+0.3%) | 1141.72 (-2.0%) | 1186.95 (+1.9%) | Lilly printed a third straight strong-sell signal at the close, the model's 4-week estimate is 2% lower and the 12-week view is flat, so the 30% trim written on 09-18 stands unchanged. OPERATIONAL: 3x consecutive settled SSR (75/78/), Sell_Rank 1; 12wk +1.89% inside the US-86 dead band. No amplify (MoS -2.63). Avg_Cost blank (US-55): signal trim, not profit-take. Residual 49 on trail raised 1114.09->1118.86. 2nd unexecuted session. · news |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 232.80 | SELL 30% | 232.80 | 234.32⚠ | 233.68 (+0.4%) | 256.56 (+10.2%) | 309.68 (+33.0%) | Nebius has never been trimmed since its stop peaked, and risk discipline mandates a 30% cut until the position is actually reduced, even though the signal turned bullish again (HOLD cv86) and the 12-week outlook is the strongest in the book. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0020 latched since 09-01 (US-73), veto-immune, pinned 30% (US-39); amplify inapplicable (US-78). Close 232.80 is -0.65% under 234.32, not decisive (US-44). The <=203.87 trigger and the time limb at the EOD on us_signals_20260923_06001x.csv are carried. Discharges on the recorded cut. · news |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 501.61 | BUY — QUEUED @500.32 | 500.32 | 485.44 | 505.55 (+1.0%) | 540.33 (+8.0%) | 558.73 (+11.7%) | Microsoft flipped to a fresh STRONG BUY on a pullback-to-VWAP setup at its model entry, backed by a $678bn Azure backlog; it passes the quality screen, and a modest valuation haircut trims the size to 0.75x. OPERATIONAL: WATCH 49 -> STRONG BUY 85, EDist -0.13 (not extended), limit below close (US-64). Cell PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy -4 with stop-first.516, the weakest row in the book (L1): admissible, not favoured. Manual 1.5-ATR stop 485.44 (US-47). Do not chase a >1.5% gap (US-9). CONDITIONAL ON US-56. · news |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 445.14 | BUY — QUEUED @445.28 | 445.28 | 430.46 | 447.88 (+0.6%) | 462.20 (+3.8%) | 479.73 (+7.7%) | TSMC is coiling just under a breakout on the book's best-graded buy setup (anticipation VCP, 88% 1-week hit rate), with August revenue up 53% YoY and chip pricing power confirmed; a buy-stop at the model entry only fills on strength. OPERATIONAL: 09-18 gtc_limit @434.67 (never reached, low 437.07) REPRICED to live entry 445.28, now a true buy-stop above the close (US-64); kept as a full ACQUIRE, not demoted to the anticipate slot (US-75). -10 clamp + 0.5x size kept although S24 (ADR mis-scale) likely makes it an artifact. Manual 1.5-ATR stop 430.46. CONDITIONAL ON US-56. · news |
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 351.67 | ADD — QUEUED @338.40 | 338.40 | 310.25 | 353.33 (+4.4%) | 351.02 (+3.7%) | 396.38 (+17.1%) | Cloudflare broke out to a 52-week high (+8.7%) and the engine now prints BUY-ADD; we add to the winner only on a pullback to the model entry rather than chasing the breakout day. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE x2 -> BUY-ADD cv65, exactly on the floor; EDist -0.63 -> queued at entry (limit, US-64). val_adj suppressed (US-53: negative EPV, FV=DCF); size 0.5x for MoS <= -3. Cell BreakoutUp_52W|buy +0, stop-first.462 (US-74). Stop = position line 310.25. Quality gate n/a (ADD). CONDITIONAL ON US-56. · news |
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de | 70.33 | NO ACTION | 70.33 | 71.84⚠ | 70.68 (+0.5%) | 70.50 (+0.2%) | 73.69 (+4.8%) | Vista closed 2.1% below its stop on a day oil fell, but its 12-week view is still positive and there is no sell signal, so the book holds the line and writes the exit trigger in advance instead of selling on a single close. OPERATIONAL: decisive breach (US-44) but L2 fails (12wk +4.78%), HOLD cv49. US-58 line not lowered; printed 64.29 declined (S1). PRE-COMMIT (US-79/US-50): SELL (50%) at the EOD on us_signals_20260923_06001x.csv if settled close <=70.76 or any settled close <=68.82; FULL exit if the 12wk turns below the close (L2). Self-heals on a settled close >71.84. PROFIT_ARMED at -8.42% declined (US-26). · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 354.97 | HOLD | 354.97 | 342.20 | 356.87 (+0.5%) | 356.91 (+0.5%) | 369.17 (+4.0%) | Alphabet is an armed winner (+189%) with no deterioration tick tonight, so we raise the trailing stop rather than trim. OPERATIONAL: ticks (a)-(d) none (AVOID->HOLD is a label change, US-49; 12wk 369.17 > 362.07). Trail 340.88->342.20 (2.0x chandelier off 359.44). 09-18 re-commitment (30% = on any non-PROFIT_ARMED Exit_Warning or settled close <=340.88) stays live through the EOD on us_signals_20260924_06001x.csv. |
| OKTA | Okta Inc. | 191.33 | HOLD | 191.33 | 172.70 | 191.74 (+0.2%) | 198.62 (+3.8%) | 190.29 (-0.5%) | Okta's profit-take has fired on two ticks, but Oktane and its investor summit run through 09-24, so the book holds through the event as pre-committed and trims afterwards unless the ticks clear. OPERATIONAL: armed (Gain_ATR 5.11), ticks (a) RSI_DIV + (c) 12wk 190.29 < 195.16 = 2 non-downgraded ticks -> 50% tier at the first eligible EOD (us_signals_20260925_06001x.csv), per the carried re-commitment. Catalyst hold (US-85). BUY-ADD cv74 entry 170.73 is 2.04 ATR below -> not a queue (US-54). Trail 172.70 held. |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1043.96 | HOLD | 1043.96 | 976.11 | 1048.66 (+0.5%) | 1094.73 (+4.9%) | 1347.48 (+29.1%) | Micron is an armed winner with no deterioration tick and a +29% 12-week view, so we ride it into the 09- earnings and raise the stop. OPERATIONAL: armed per prior EOD (Gain_ATR 3.63, US-84); no ticks. Trail 953.77->976.11 (2.0x chandelier off 1064.49; 1.54 ATR under close). |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | 151.85 | HOLD | 151.85 | 144.35 | 148.95 (-1.9%) | 152.80 (+0.6%) | 170.65 (+12.4%) | SpaceX holds through Thursday's lock-up tranche with the trailing stop raised beforehand, as the event calendar advises; there is no deterioration tick. OPERATIONAL: armed (Gain_ATR 12.56); cv80->71 (-9, <20); 12wk 170.65 > 154.89. Trail 142.88->144.35 (2.0x chandelier off 158.13). Lock-up 09-24 hold-through (US-85). |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 227.38 | HOLD | 227.38 | 220.48 | 228.70 (+0.6%) | 229.31 (+0.8%) | 235.76 (+3.7%) | Nvidia firmed to HOLD cv75 in the chip rally with no exit condition, so the position is held on its existing stop. OPERATIONAL: Avg_Cost blank 7th week (US-55); no tick ((c) 235.76 > 231.93). Chandelier 216.78 below line; 220.48 held. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
234 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.342 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.