Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIST | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de | 64.25 | SELL ALL | 64.25 | 71.84⚠ | 65.02 (+1.2%) | 66.09 (+2.9%) | 69.32 (+7.9%) | Vista has now closed below its 71.84 stop for ten straight sessions and sits 16% under cost; the written stop-loss exit stands even though the engine bounced to a mean-reversion HOLD. Stop-loss exit fired 09-24, unexecuted (US-37 stalemate). HOLD cv73 is not a reclaim (US-32 basis = stop, not label). UNDERVALUED argue-down declined for a stop exit. OPEC+ 10-04/05. |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | 206.89 | SELL 30% | 206.89 | 194.81 | 207.89 (+0.5%) | 209.18 (+1.1%) | 200.79 (-2.9%) | KLA's risk line has walked 36% below its July peak without the position ever being cut, and now its own 12-week view (200.79) sits below the 206.89 close on a profitable, armed position - trim 30%. Dual basis: ADR-0020 latched first fire (veto-immune) + ADR-0012 armed (prior-EOD Gain_ATR 3.74, Gain limb so US-33 n/a) + tick (c) dead 12wk -2.95%. Tier stays 30%: profit-take 1 soft tick = 30% and the MoS -4.63 bump is G2-suppressed (12wk 200.79 >> DCF 61.80). Lone STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv34 declined as an escalation (US-34). Trail raised 174.01 -> 194.81 (chandelier, 1.74 ATR). · news |
| NBIS | Nebius Group, N.V. | 242.81 | SELL 30% | 242.81 | 234.32 | 245.41 (+1.1%) | 270.18 (+11.3%) | 321.33 (+32.3%) | Nebius bounced 4.5% back above its 234.32 line, but the risk-discipline trim fired on 09-01 has never been executed and stays mandatory until the share count actually drops. ADR-0020 latched (US-73), veto-immune; US-22 self-heal does not apply to a risk-discipline card. Amplify inapplicable (US-78). |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Tech Corp | 158.96 | NO ACTION | 158.96 | 146.06 | 157.24 (-1.1%) | 163.89 (+3.1%) | 175.73 (+10.5%) | SpaceX jumped 7.4% on three launches in 13 hours (+143% on cost) and printed an RSI divergence, which fires a 30% profit-take, but the three-card cap holds it behind the stop-loss and risk-discipline cards; a lock-up tranche unlocks 10-09. Armed (prior Gain_ATR 14.59) + tick (a) RSI_DIV; G1 n/a (ReversalDown family). MoS -68.66 implausible (US-EOQ-2) -> no amplify. DISPLACED (US-62) trigger: SELL at a settled close <=152.07 (1.0 ATR) OR a 2nd consecutive RSI_DIV print, on us_signals_20261006_06001x.csv or _20261007_; TIME limb (US-79): fires at the 20261009_06001x EOD (10-08 close, pre-lock-up) if not already executed. Trail 145.71 -> 146.06. · news |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 1074.89 | NO ACTION | 1074.89 | 1022.05 | 1085.21 (+1.0%) | 1066.96 (-0.7%) | 1123.22 (+4.5%) | Micron gave back 2% after its post-earnings run; the carried 30% profit-take trigger did not fire (close 1074.89 > 1051.98, no 2nd RSI_DIV) and stays live one more file. HOLD96 -> NT0 is a label crossing (US-), not tick (b); 12wk alive (+4.5%). Carried unchanged (US-19); lapses after the us_signals_20261006_06001x.csv EOD. |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co | 1142.85 | NO ACTION | 1142.85 | 1131.95 | 1139.55 (-0.3%) | 1154.93 (+1.1%) | 1206.87 (+5.6%) | Lilly printed a first STRONG SELL-REDUCE (cv73, Sell_Rank 1) but closed 1% above its 1131.95 line with a positive 12-week view, so the lone flip is declined (US-18/US-34). Written trigger: SELL (30%, floor tier; not the model's 88.52%, US-72) on a 2nd consecutive settled STRONG SELL-REDUCE OR a settled close <=1114.97 (1.5% under the line), on us_signals_20261006_06001x.csv or _20261007_; lapses after the 20261007 EOD. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet, Inc.- Class A | 343.50 | HOLD | 343.50 | 342.20 | 344.79 (+0.4%) | 345.12 (+0.5%) | 355.32 (+3.4%) | Alphabet reclaimed its 342.20 line (+1.56% to 343.50), so the displaced 30% trigger did not fire and lapses as written. Third NO TRADE is uncorroborated (US-71): close back above the line, 12wk 350.87 -> 355.32, RSI. Watch: a decisive settled close <=337.07 re-opens it. |
| OKTA | Okta Inc. | 211.49 | HOLD | 211.49 | 198.61 | 213.45 (+0.9%) | 220.58 (+4.3%) | 221.02 (+4.5%) | Okta held near its highs (211.49, +51% on cost); the carried sell trigger lapses unfired. SB-ADD -> NT0 is a label crossing (US-), not tick (b); 12wk alive. Trail raised 194.50 -> 198.61 (216.59 high - 2x8.99; 1.43 ATR). |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 233.95 | HOLD | 234.87 | 226.72 | 235.50 (+0.3%) | 243.01 (+3.5%) | 252.50 (+7.5%) | Nvidia broke to a 52-week high and printed BUY-ADD cv78, but a breakout add needs raw conviction 85 here (US-16) and acquires are vetoed while the book is unreconciled (US-56). The prior RSI_DIV deferred fire is gone. Trail raised 220.48 -> 226.72 (237.87 high - 2x5.57; 1.30 ATR). |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 517.53 | NO ACTION | 517.53 | 511.69 | 520.22 (+0.5%) | 539.55 (+4.3%) | 564.21 (+9.0%) | Microsoft upgraded to STRONG BUY cv at its entry after six sessions of buy prints, quality passes, and it clears the 85 raw floor for its family - the cleanest buy in weeks, but acquires stay vetoed while the book is unreconciled (US-56). Sizing: 85.49% x x 20% = x0.75 (MoS -1.81) = / 517.53 =. Ledgered optional so the grader prices the veto. · news |
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 1867.31 | BUY-STOP | 1846.54 | 1703.31 | 1877.72 (+1.7%) | 1889.32 (+2.3%) | 1991.44 (+7.8%) | ASML printed BUY-ANTICIPATE cv88 (best buy cell, +9) but only 1 of the last 3 snapshots, so the anticipate slot is not yet eligible. Pre-committed (US-35): a 2nd ANTICIPATE on us_signals_20261006_06001x.csv with conv >=55 makes it eligible, at 0.5x size, reprice to that row's Entry_Price; note the printed entry sits BELOW the close (US-64: a limit, not a stop). ASML Q3 10-14. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
270 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.333 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
91 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.