Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | American Express Co | 336.39 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @340.30 lapsed — closed 336.39 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. American Express upgraded to Buy ahead of Q2 earnings (PT, +21%) on robust consumer spend and improving credit -- news confirms a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP BUY - ADD (conv 73, Buy_Rank 1, the only bullish-actionable row, L1). ADD to a held, underwater core (, -4.42%); quality gate off for ADDs. Buy Limit @340.30 (close 336.39 below -> fills at open). Half-size (model ADD 10,388 x0.5) -- halved for the de-risk-into-CPI 07-14 event-gated week (overlay: stage adds between rate events); Q2 earnings 07-24 is beyond the catalyst window. adj conv (val_adj -3, OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -0.56) clears the 65 floor. 12wk 374.09 exceeds RI FV -- assumes multiple expansion. L8 pending_next_open, execute 07-09 open, reprice if the open gaps >1.5%; expires 07-13 (before CPI). · news |
| KR | Kroger Co | 59.32 | SELL 88.52% | 59.32 | 55.72 | n/a | n/a | 41.95 (-29.3%) | Complete the KR residual de-risk: stable STRONG SELL - REDUCE (FailedBreakout_Down_20D) across 3 snapshots (conv ->65, weakening but still STRONG) with a deeply negative 12wk 41.95 (-29.3% vs 59.32 close) -- a signal-based trend exit (CLAUDE.md §9 / L2). News neutral (Giant Eagle acquisition, new CPO, retail-media/AI push vs margin pressure; analyst consensus above price but no override of an active trend-sell). Reduce 89% = @ ~59.32 (Market, next open); residual on raised chandelier stop 55.72. Valuation NA (no amplify). Trim-discipline G1-G3 N/A (bearish downtrend signal). L8 pending_next_open, execute 07-09, reprice if open gaps >1.5%. · news |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 53.59 | NO ACTION | 53.59 | 49.87 | n/a | n/a | 39.83 (-25.7%) | OXY residual (, +9.57%) printed STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv77 strengthening (Sell_Rank 1), the strongest sell on the board -- but a NEWS OVERRIDE cancels the exit: Evercore double-upgrade to Outperform, PT raised to (from) on a de-levered balance sheet + FCF story, plus WTI +5.93% after Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire is over (oil supply shock). That catalyst is why the residual bounced twice (48..59); selling into a fresh upgrade + live oil bid repeats the 07-07 don't-sell-the-low flag (L4/US-7). Hold; raise chandelier stop 48..87 to bank the gain. Ledgered direction=none/optional so the counterfactual grader prices what not selling saved or cost. · news |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 87.29 | NO ACTION | 87.68 | 83.91 | 89.95 (+2.6%) | 95.25 (+8.6%) | 116.19 (+32.5%) | HOLD conv 59 on PullbackBuy_VWAP (was BUY-ADD 71 on 07-07). Q2 earnings 2026-07-10 (one session after execution) -> L6/catalyst-aware hold through the print; no fresh pullback-limit add that could fill into earnings. adj conv 55 (val_adj -4, FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.76) is sub-floor anyway. Strong 12wk 116.19 (+33%) keeps it the first re-arm candidate post-earnings on a confirmed pullback ~87.68. Hold the on stop 83.91. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
7 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.