Recommendations
1 to acquire · 4 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 60.62 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @61.17 lapsed — closed 60.62 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Pyramid add on a fresh MomentumContinuation_Up STRONG BUY-ADD (cv93, Buy_Rank 1, conviction climbing into a confirmed Q2 earnings beat (07-14 6:45am ET: EPS 13e +27% YoY, rev 62Be) — the market's post-print reaction, so no front-running. Held core so the failed quality gate does not block the ADD; mild overvaluation (OVERVALUED_VS_RI, MoS -0.30) trims adj conviction to 91, well clear of the floor. QUEUED as a GTC buy-stop @61.17 (fills only on continued strength, self-limiting) — sized down from the model's 99.33% (full double, +) to a measured ~35% pyramid of because L6/US-9 forbid chasing a post-earnings gap on a core mirror name. Stop 58.37; RSI 69.6 + RSI_DIV is a G1 caution not a block. Expires 07-17. L8/US-9: if the 07-15 open gaps >~1.5% past 61.17 (>), WITHDRAW and re-arm on a pullback to VWAP/EMA10 — do not chase. · news |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 104.13 | ADD — QUEUED @103.48 | 103.48 | 97.81 | 105.45 (+1.9%) | 110.06 (+6.4%) | 115.07 (+11.2%) | Small pyramid add on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP family (Buy_Rank 2) with a proper pullback-limit entry below the close (not a chase). Marginal — adj conviction 66 clears the 65 floor by one; the PullbackBuy cell is only report-only here (n=2) so no positive bias applied. NA valuation so the quality gate is off and val_adj is 0. QUEUED GTC buy-limit @103.48 (range 102.77-104.19), + (, Portion 29.97% x 2,462) — kept small: thin/illiquid Liberty Live tracking stock and the add sits on a -3.6% position. Stop 97.81. Expires 07-17. L8: reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 54.57 | SELL 50% | 54.57 | 51.00 | 52.24 (-4.3%) | n/a | 46.81 (-14.2%) | First GENUINE profit-take on this book: the day-1 89%-trim residual (, avg cost 48.91) has run to +11.6% and crossed a real arm — Gain_ATR 3.2, T12_Progress 116.6% (the 12-week target is exceeded). Deterioration ticks fire it: (c) the model's forward view is now negative (12wk 46.81 << close 54.57) and (d) two consecutive NO TRADE prints. Per ADR-0012 that is a signal-based reason to bank the winner: profit_take_2 = 50% = @ (, ~+ banked). Oil rolling off the May peak (WTI) confirms the de-risk; but a fresh Evercore upgrade (Outperform, PT) argues to keep the other half — hold and raise the chandelier trail to. Distinct from the persistent spurious seed-cost PROFIT_ARMED (this arm is a real positive Gain_ATR>=3). L8: execute at the 07-15 open / closing auction; reprice if it gaps. · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 181.76 | SELL 50% | 181.76 | 174.00 | 174.88 (-3.8%) | n/a | 158.81 (-12.6%) | Genuine profit-take on the day-1 89%-trim residual (, avg cost 169.20) now +7.4%: Gain_ATR 3.33, T12_Progress 114.5% (12-week target exceeded). Fired by (c) dead/negative model 12wk (158.81 < close 181.76) and (d) two consecutive NO TRADE prints -> profit_take_2 50% = @ (, ~+ banked). CVX is -10% over the past month as oil pulled back from its May peak (guidance intact) — confirms the partial de-risk. Keep the retained and raise the trail to. Valuation OVERVALUED_VS_RI (MoS -0.03) negligible. L8: execute at the 07-15 open / closing auction. · news |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific Corp | 75.41 | SELL ALL | 75.41 | 77.96⚠ | 73.84 (-2.1%) | n/a | 70.16 (-7.0%) | Residual clean-up exit on the L2 basis: a decisive close below the carried stop (75.41 < 77.96, -3.27%) paired with a negative 12-week projection (70.16 vs 75.41) is itself a signal-based exit (CLAUDE.md §9 / learnings L2), even though the engine still prints AVOID/NO-TRADE. Extreme overvaluation (MoS_FV -5.20) amplifies (§9c). Full exit of the 1,412-sh sliver @, realizing -4.9%. Cell caution noted: FailedBreakout_Down|sell grades -7 (whipsaws), but the stop-break + neg-12wk + MoS -5.2 stack is a strong combined basis and this is an immaterial residual. L8: execute at the 07-15 open. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 346.22 | HOLD | — | 338.00 | n/a | n/a | 381.26 | Monitor flagged a stop breach (close 346.22 < carried stop 349.73, -1.0%), but this is a marginal 1% close-through on a core mirror holding with a positive +10% forward view (12wk 381.26) and no sell signal (NO TRADE cv0, not armed: Gain_ATR -1.86). Within noise — the 349.73 anchor stop was too tight. HOLD and reset the stop to (~1x ATR under the close). Judgment call, not a mechanical dump; the FailedBreakout|sell -7 cell also cautions against selling here. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 359.51 | HOLD | — | 345.00 | n/a | n/a | 340.27 | AVOID cv57 (faded from the earlier STRONG SELL-REDUCE), close 359.51 above the 345 stop. Overlay standing override HOLD into the 07-22 Q2 earnings (Dow inclusion + Cloud +48%/ backlog + Gemini) — catalyst-aware hold-through, no pre-trim. Keep 345 stop; GOOG (Cl C) parallels at 343. Reassess post-earnings. |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group | 53.96 | SELL ALL | 53.96 | 58.14⚠ | n/a | n/a | 51.68 (-4.2%) | Immaterial residual that qualifies for an L2 exit — stop-break (53.96 < 58.14, -5.07%) + negative 12wk (51.68) — but is too small to earn a full card. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the tail; winds down on its stop. FailedBreakout_Down|sell -7 whipsaw caution applies. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
9 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.644 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.