Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | American Express Co | 358.44 | ADD — QUEUED @346.40 | 346.40 | 328.75 | 352.54 (+1.8%) | 366.87 (+5.9%) | 411.11 (+18.7%) | Fresh STRONG BUY-ADD cv93 on PullbackBuy_VWAP (Buy_Rank 1) off a stable HOLD base — the book's most reliable buy cell (L1) — with a Buy-to-Buy upgrade ahead of the 07-24 earnings confirming the tape; valuation is a mild headwind (OVERVALUED_VS_RI, MoS -0.57 -> val_adj -3, adj 90). Add only on a pullback: close 358.44 sits 1.36 ATR above the model limit, so QUEUE a gtc_limit at 346.40 (range 344.19-348.61), never chase (L6/US-9). Measured ~14%% pyramid (+) not the model's full double, given AXP is already the 17.4%% # weight and RSI_DIV is present. Expires 07-20 (before earnings); 12wk 411.11 sits under DCF 425.56 (no over-DCF flag). f=0.30 (L5). · news |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 53.77 | HOLD | — | 51.00 | n/a | n/a | 46.64 | Retained half from the 07-14 50%% profit-take. Still armed (T12 progress 115%%) but the only fire tick is the persistent dead-12wk (46.64) that was already acted on yesterday, and conviction improved NO TRADE->HOLD cv62 with price 53. above the raised trail -> hold the retained on trail no churn re-trim (a static tick shouldn't re-fire daily). |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 181.60 | HOLD | — | 174.00 | n/a | n/a | 161.76 | Retained half from the 07-14 50%% profit-take. Armed (Gain_ATR 3.28) but the only fire tick is the persistent dead-12wk (161.76) already acted on yesterday; conviction improved NO TRADE->HOLD cv51, price 181.60 above the raised trail -> hold the retained on trail no churn re-trim. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 337.44 | HOLD | — | 326.00 | n/a | n/a | 361.81 | Marginal 0.17%% close-through (337.44 vs the 338.00 stop) on a core holding, but the signal recovered to PullbackBuy_VWAP cv62 with a POSITIVE 12wk (361.81, +7.2%%) -> this is NOT an L2 exit (needs stop-break AND neg-12wk). Widen the stop to the model 326.06 so the prior tight anchor stops tripping on noise. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 85.29 | NO ACTION | — | 80.26 | n/a | n/a | 67.89 | Stable STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv75 Sell_Rank 1 with a negative 12wk (67.89), but only (0.03%% of a book) and on the FailedBreakout_Down|sell cell that grades -7 (hit_1w.167 -> calls tops that bounce). Immaterial + adverse cell -> not carded; let it wind down on the chandelier stop 80.26. Marked optional so the counterfactual grader prices what not cleaning it up costs. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
14 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.644 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.