Recommendations
1 to acquire · 4 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AXP | American Express Co | 361.57 | ADD — QUEUED @346.91 | 346.91 | 330.88 | 352.49 (+1.6%) | 365.50 (+5.4%) | 418.89 (+20.7%) | JPMorgan upgraded AXP to Overweight as its preferred card name and Evercore lifted its target to — a fresh Buy-Rank-1 PullbackBuy on a strong uptrend (above all EMAs) makes this the book's cleanest add, but price ran ~4% past the pullback entry so we queue rather than chase. Held core so the F-Score quality gate does not block the ADD; OVERVALUED_VS_RI val_adj -3 -> adj 83. Repriced from the 07-15 @346.40 GTC and rolled to expiry 07-21; + is model Portion 99.33% scaled to a measured ~14% pyramid given AXP is already the #2 weight and RSI_DIV is present. Earnings 07-24 BMO is past expiry (no catalyst conflict). If the 07-17 open never pulls back to 346.91 the order expires — no chase. · news |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 235.67 | SELL 50% | 235.67 | 223.00 | 235.51 (-0.1%) | n/a | 235.15 (-0.2%) | Genuine fired profit-take: NUE reached its 12-week target (T12_Progress 100.2%, +6.8% unrealized, Gain_ATR 2.69) and then its signal collapsed from cv58 to NO TRADE cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction') with a dead-flat forward view — bank half and protect the gain while the setup is spent. Armed + ticks (b) conviction collapse and (c) dead-12wk -> profit_take_2 50%. Book's most material sell candidate; keep on a raised trail Executes at the 07-17 open (L8). |
| LEN | Lennar Corp | 86.40 | SELL 88.52% | 86.40 | 80.26 | 81.54 (-5.6%) | n/a | 70.20 (-18.8%) | Lennar's spring selling season came in weak — UBS cut its target to (Neutral) and JPMorgan to (Underweight) on lowered FY26 guidance, and the stock is -13.6% YTD. Technically a stable 3-print STRONG SELL-REDUCE trading below its 200-day EMA with a dead 12-week view (70.20, ~-19%): a valid trend exit despite the -7 whipsaw cell, since the below-200DMA + negative-forward stack is structural. Exit the Lennar complex (paired with LEN-B); residual winds down on stop 80.26. Executes at the 07-17 open (L8). · news |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 84.74 | SELL 88.52% | 84.74 | 79.90 | 80.37 (-5.2%) | n/a | 70.18 (-17.2%) | Class B of the Lennar exit — broke its stop (88.14, -3.86%, loss-prevention) and sits below its 200-day EMA with a dead 12-week view (70.18, -17%). Same downgrade-driven housing weakness as LEN (UBS/JPM target cuts, weak spring demand). Trim the complex together; residual winds down on stop 79.90. Executes at the 07-17 open (L8). · news |
| KR | Kroger Co | 58.61 | SELL 50% | 58.61 | 54.95 | 54.20 (-7.5%) | n/a | 43.91 (-25.1%) | Loss-prevention: KR broke its stop (60.03, -2.37%) and flipped to STRONG SELL-REDUCE below its 200-day EMA with a sharply negative 12-week view (43.91, -25%) — an L2 stop-break + neg-12wk exit, and not-trimming it on 07-09 already cost 5.5%. But KR is UNDERVALUED with Quality_Pass True (F-Score 7), so valuation argues down one tier: take only 50% ('sell the cheap, quality name at the minimum') and keep on stop 54.95. Executes at the 07-17 open (L8). |
| STZ | Constellation Brands | 135.72 | NO ACTION | 135.72 | 126.78 | n/a | n/a | 103.71 (-23.6%) | Valid 2-print STRONG SELL-REDUCE (cv75, adj 68) below its 200-day EMA with a dead 12-week view (103.71), but only / — immaterial to card. Wind down on a tightened chandelier stop; grade what not-trimming this dust costs. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 275.22 | NO ACTION | 275.22 | 262.00 | n/a | n/a | 255.44 (-7.2%) | Armed winner (+7.3%, T12_Progress 107.7%) with a single dead-12wk tick (255.44, -7.2%) -> an optional 30% profit-trim, but the name is NoSignal cv0 and the dead-12wk is a persistent tick, not fresh deterioration. Long-only quality mirror name: raise the trail to rather than churn-trim; revisit only if a new tick appears. Grade what not-trimming costs. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 354.46 | HOLD | 354.46 | 345.00 | n/a | n/a | 338.72 (-4.4%) | AVOID cv53 and fired profit-take ticks (b conviction fade + c dead-12wk), but the standing news-overlay HOLD override into the 07-22 Q2 earnings wins — hold through the catalyst above the 345 stop, no pre-trim (same for GOOG at 343). Invalidated only on a close below 345. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
14 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.644 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.