Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 54.86 | SELL 30% | 54.86 | 51.79 | 53.13 (-3.2%) | 57.93 (+5.6%) | 49.09 (-10.5%) | Profit-take on an armed energy winner (+12.2%, Gain_ATR 3.9): bank 30% into a fresh RSI_DIV deterioration tick plus a dead 12wk view (49.09 < spot 54.86). Already halved 07-14; one new tick -> profit_take_1 (30%), keep 3,766 to ride. Valuation MoS -3.09 would bump the tier but G2 suppresses it (DCF 33.47 unreliable vs Target 49.09). Raise chandelier trail.79. Executes at the 07-20 open (L8); reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 187.38 | SELL 30% | 187.38 | 179.80 | 184.07 (-1.8%) | 208.46 (+11.2%) | 176.34 (-5.9%) | Profit-take on an armed winner (+10.7%, Gain_ATR 4.8): conviction collapsed and the 12wk view is dead (176.34 < spot 187.38) despite a fresh BreakoutUp label — the forward view and consensus disagree with the breakout, so bank 30%. Already halved 07-14; one new tick -> profit_take_1 (30%), keep 1,104 to ride. G2 suppresses valuation amplify (DCF 82 unreliable vs Target 176). Raise chandelier trail.80. Executes at the 07-20 open (L8); reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 84.17 | HOLD | 84.17 | 84.68⚠ | n/a | 89.40 (+6.2%) | 97.39 (+15.7%) | Marginal 0.6% stop-break (84.17 vs 84.68) but 12wk is +15.7% positive and the signal is a recovery bounce -> not an L2 exit. CB-precedent hold; keep stop 84.68, a decisive close <~83.5 triggers a next-session exit. Conviction faded — watch, do not pre-sell a failed-breakdown-up with a positive forward view. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 333.74 | HOLD | — | 317.70 | n/a | 383.61 | 402.61 | Armed (+8.1%, Gain_ATR 3.1) but NOT fired (cv73 stable, no other EW code, 12wk +20.6% alive) -> mandatory trail-raise 299..70 (2.0xATR chandelier). Strongest core hold. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 277.66 | HOLD | — | 262.00 | n/a | n/a | 263.15 | Armed (+8.3%) + persistent dead-12wk only, no new tick, AVOID cv0 -> trail-hold 262, no churn re-trim; revisit only on a fresh tick. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 236.61 | HOLD | — | 223.00 | n/a | n/a | 237.75 | 2 consecutive NO TRADE (tick d) but already halved 07-16 ( residual) -> keep trail 223, no churn re-trim absent a fresh price break. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 346.77 | HOLD | — | 345.00 | n/a | n/a | 322.58 | Overlay standing HOLD override into 07-22 Q2 earnings (~3 sessions); catalyst-aware, keep stop 345, no pre-trim. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 346.12 | HOLD | — | 343.00 | n/a | n/a | 324.41 | Overlay standing HOLD override into 07-22 Q2 earnings; keep stop 343, no pre-trim into the print. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
19 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.644 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.