Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 134.36 | SELL ALL | 134.36 | 125.85 | n/a | n/a | 104.01 (-22.6%) | Constellation Brands is the book's top-ranked sell: a stable, thrice-repeated failed-breakout signal with the model's 12-week view sitting 22.6% below today's price, and a fair-value read that offers no offsetting discount. The business case is still unresolved - beer is stabilising and carries ~94% of sales, but wine and spirits plus tariffs keep guidance cautious and the shares are down ~40% over three years. We close the whole line rather than the model's 88.5% portion because this is a 23-share residual left from an earlier exit, and 3 leftover shares is not a position. Stable STRONG SELL-REDUCE x3, Sell_Rank 1; adj 68 = cv73 with the actionable FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell -5 bias, clears the 65 floor. MoS -0.88 > -3 so no valuation tier bump (amplify-only). News neutral, no override. 1wk/4wk estimates n/a - sell-side row prints no Target_Price. Executes at the 07-21 open (L8). · news |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 82.90 | SELL ALL | 82.90 | 76.93 | n/a | n/a | 65.66 (-20.8%) | Lennar has printed a bear-trend rally-sell for five straight sessions - the most stable sell signal in the book - and the model's 12-week view is 20.8% below today's price. The news confirms rather than contradicts it: average delivered home price is down 5% year-on-year to, margins are still compressing, and the most recent analyst move was only an upgrade to Hold. We close the whole 34-share residual left from the earlier exit; the model's 88.5% portion would strand. Adj 65 = cv65 with bias 0 (RallySell_BearTrend|sell report-only, n=1); exactly at the floor. MoS -0.67 > -3, no tier bump. 1wk/4wk n/a - no Target_Price on the sell row. Executes at the 07-21 open (L8). · news |
| — | Lennar Corp Cl B | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Same bear-trend sell case as Lennar Class A but two conviction points under the action floor, so we leave the 9-share stub in place rather than bend the threshold. It runs on a 76.13 stop and re-cards the first session it prints 65 or better. Logged as a conditional so the counterfactual grader prices what not selling the stub cost. |
| — | Jefferies Financial Group | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Jefferies printed the book's cleanest fresh buy trigger - a recovery signal right at the model entry with no chase required - but it fails the quality screen we require of any brand-new position: the F-Score/free-cash-flow test is not passed and the residual-income read says overvalued. We pass rather than start a position on a name the valuation layer cannot vouch for. Hard quality-gate block on a new entry (, Quality_Pass False); independently the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cell is a learnings-US-10 trap requiring raw conviction >= 75 and cv74 misses. Not queued. |
| — | American Express Co | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | American Express sits on the book's most reliable buy pattern - a pullback toward its volume-weighted average price - and the 12-week view is a healthy +15%, but after the valuation haircut for a stock trading above its residual-income worth the case lands just under our action threshold, and Q2 earnings are four sessions away. We do not stage adds into a print. Adj 63 = cv66 + val_adj -3 (clamp(round(-0.566*5))), bias 0 (PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy report-only n=3); below the 65 floor. Also -0.45 ATR extended past entry so it could only queue. Whipsaw trail ->cv0->66. Re-evaluate post-earnings. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 55.19 | HOLD | 52.19 | 52.06 | n/a | 55.82 (+7.0%) | 50.48 (-3.3%) | Occidental flipped back to a buy signal on the same day our 30% profit-trim executed, but we are not buying it back: the model's own 12-week price target of sits below the entry it is asking us to pay, so the trade would be buying into a negative forward view, and the shares are already 1.9 ATR above that entry. We hold the remaining and raise the trailing stop instead. Adj exactly 65 (cv75, val_adj -10 on MoS -3.09) - touches the floor but fails on substance plus the same-session flip-flop bar. Armed (+12.8%, Gain_ATR 4.02, T12 109%) with only the persistent dead-12wk tick and conviction recovering, so no re-trim. Trail 51..06 (2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 189.71 | HOLD | 188.22 | 181.88 | n/a | 212.59 (+12.9%) | 184.09 (-2.2%) | Chevron's 30% de-risk executed at this morning's open and the position is now stable: conviction is recovering and only the stale dead-12-week flag remains, which is not grounds to cut a name we just trimmed. We hold the remaining and lift the trailing stop to lock in more of the 12% gain. Armed (Gain_ATR 5.24, T12 103%) but no new deterioration tick; trail 179..88 (2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 277.61 | HOLD | — | 265.40 | n/a | n/a | 266.88 | VeriSign is sitting on an 8.3% gain with the model's 12-week view now roughly level with the price, but today's no-trade print is only the first in a row (the two before it were avoids), so the repeated-stall trigger has not matured. We protect the gain with a higher trailing stop rather than trim into no fresh evidence. Armed (Gain_ATR 3.47) on the persistent dead-12wk tick only; trail.40 (2.0x ATR chandelier). |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 84.54 | HOLD | 84.54 | 84.68⚠ | n/a | n/a | 96.05 (+13.6%) | Delta brushed its stop by 0.17% and the chart flipped bearish, but the company news points the other way: a strong Q2, a 15% dividend increase, full-year guidance reaffirmed at -7.50, analysts at Strong Buy and a Morgan Stanley target lift to With the model's own 12-week view still +13.6%, a fractional stop touch is not an exit. We hold and require a decisive break to act. Marginal breach held on the CB precedent (07-15); L2 does not fire (12wk positive). Keep stop 84.68; a decisive close below ~83.50 (>1% through) triggers a next-session exit. Signal sits on the -5 FailedBreakout_Down_20D whipsaw cell. · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 326.59 | HOLD | — | 317.70 | n/a | n/a | 392.55 | Apple's signal went quiet today on conflicting indicators, but the position is up 5.8% with a 12-week view 20% above the price - a stalled reading, not a deteriorating one. It is no longer in profit-take range either, so we simply hold the largest core position on its existing trailing stop. Conviction (consensus conflict); Gain_ATR 2.13 < 3.0 so not armed. Keep the manual trail 317.70 (above the 309.74 chandelier). |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 230.74 | HOLD | 230.74 | 223.00 | n/a | n/a | 228.79 (-0.8%) | Nucor was already halved last week and today's bearish print sits on the book's least reliable sell pattern, so we let the remaining half run on its stop rather than cut twice into the same weak signal. Adj 48 after the -5 whipsaw-cell bias, well below the floor; armed with a dead 12wk but no fresh tick. Keep trail 223 (tighter than the 218.52 chandelier). |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 351.99 | HOLD | — | 345.00 | n/a | n/a | 324.93 | Alphabet reports Q2 tomorrow. Our standing rule is to hold through a scheduled catalyst rather than pre-position into it, so the position stays intact on its stop and we reassess on the print. Overlay HOLD override active (catalyst within 5 sessions); no pre-trim. GOOG Cl C held on the same basis at stop 343 (AVOID cv62). Override invalidates on a close below 345. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
21 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.644 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.