Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 354.80 | ADD — QUEUED @348.24 | 348.24 | 332.71 | 353.65 (+1.6%) | 366.26 (+5.2%) | 386.36 (+10.9%) | Chubb printed a fresh STRONG BUY-ADD on the reliable pullback-to-VWAP setup (cv85, Buy_Rank 1) as its Q2 results landed 07-21; we queue a below-close buy-limit that fills only on a pullback so we ride the trend without chasing the earnings pop. Extended -0.84 ATR past the 348.24 entry -> QUEUE not market (no-chase). Model add portion 99.33pct x 8,216 = (, a near-doubling ADD; within 60pct max-position +; scalable at user discretion). Val neutral (OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -0.028, val_adj 0, size x1.0). 12wk 386.36 exceeds RI FV anchor 345.17 -> growth-beyond-priced-in. L6-safe pullback-only limit into the Q2 call 07-22 8:30 ET. expires_on 07-24; execute 07-22 open. · news |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 56.50 | SELL 30% | 56.50 | 53.48 | 55.58 (-1.6%) | n/a | 53.44 (-5.4%) | A +15.5pct armed winner (Gain_ATR 5.02, T12 105.7pct) whose signal deteriorated hard this session — conviction collapsed (a bullish add-candidate flipping to a neutral hold) on a dead 12wk — so we bank a measured 30pct and keep 70pct to ride the trail. Fire tick (b) conviction collapse; persistent dead-12wk (c) does not escalate to 50pct (optional_trim counterfactual: trims give back -0.6pct). Valuation MoS -3.087 would bump but G2 suppresses the amplify (DCF 33.47 << Target 53.44). Keep; raise trail 52..48 (2.0xATR chandelier). News neutral: Evercore Outperform PT is 07-08 stale/priced-in, supports keeping the residual, does not cancel a signal-based partial. 4wk n/a (65.11 target not conviction-supported at cv22). · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 191.07 | HOLD | — | 184.02 | n/a | n/a | 190.29 | Armed (+12.9pct, Gain_ATR 6.21) but NOT fired: conviction held (no collapse) with only the persistent dead-12wk tick, and CVX was trimmed at the 07-20 open — a name de-risked one session ago is not re-cut on a stale tick, so raise the trail and ride. Trail 181..02 (2.0xATR chandelier). The BreakoutUp label at cv27 is the flagged cascade contradiction, treated as noise. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 237.28 | HOLD | — | 226.03 | n/a | 248.53 | 327.74 | RSI_DIV at RSI 70 plus extreme MoS -3.90 would elevate a trim under the warning+valuation rule, but the forward-view gate (G3) blocks it: the 12wk view is +38pct (327.74 vs 237.28) and the signal is not bearish, so cutting here would be selling a winner. Not armed (Gain_ATR 0.42). Watch the divergence; raise trail 219..03 (printed chandelier). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 266.15 | HOLD | — | 265.40 | n/a | 280.90 | 250.61 | Armed via T12 (Gain_ATR 1.32, +3.79pct) on the persistent dead-12wk only; conviction rose (no tick b) and it is only 1 NO TRADE (tick d not matured), so no trim. Keep manual trail 265.40 (above the 251.40 chandelier). |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 327.74 | HOLD | — | 317.70 | n/a | 344.18 | 393.24 | No longer armed (Gain_ATR 2.32 < 3.0); conviction recovered; 12wk 393.24 (+20pct, alive). Strongest core hold — keep the manual trail 317.70 (above the 311.30 chandelier). |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 84.63 | HOLD | — | 84.68⚠ | n/a | n/a | 94.79 | Third marginal stop touch (84.63 vs 84.68, -0.06pct) but held: 12wk is +12.0pct positive (94.79) so the L2 stop-break+neg-12wk exit does not fire, and the fundamentals override the bearish -5 whipsaw-cell print (strong Q2, dividend +15pct, MS PT 115). Keep stop 84.68; only a decisive close below ~83.50 (>1pct through) triggers a next-session exit. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 233.20 | HOLD | — | 223.00 | n/a | n/a | 230.70 | Already halved 07-16; NO TRADE cv0 but tick (d) has not matured (07-20 AVOID broke the NO-TRADE run). No re-trim on a name de-risked last week absent a fresh price break. Keep trail 223. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 347.15 | HOLD | — | 345.00 | n/a | n/a | 315.50 | Alphabet reports Q2 after todays (07-22) close. Standing overlay HOLD override into the print: hold through the scheduled catalyst rather than pre-position, no pre-trim, reassess on the result. Override invalidates on a close below 345. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 346.19 | HOLD | — | 343.00 | n/a | n/a | 317.41 | Class C held on the same GOOGL Q2 catalyst-aware basis (reports after the 07-22 close); overlay HOLD override, no pre-trim, stop 343. Invalidates on a close below 343. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6325.40 | HOLD | — | 5943.43 | n/a | n/a | 6073.07 | New STRONG SELL-REDUCE print (Sell_Rank 2) but adj 60 < 65 floor; 3-share dust on the report-only RallySell cell. Not carded; wind down on chandelier stop 5943.43 if it re-prints cv>=65. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 80.41 | HOLD | — | 75.77 | n/a | n/a | 63.73 | STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv56 Sell_Rank 3, adj 56 < 65 floor; 9-sh dust on stop 75.77. Symmetry with LEN noted; re-cards at cv>=65. |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group | 56.74 | WATCH | 56.74 | 55.56 | n/a | 60.74 (+7.0%) | 59.54 (+4.9%) | BUY cv69 but blocked twice as a new entry : the quality gate fails (Quality_Pass False, OVERVALUED_VS_RI) and it sits on the US-10 trap cell (FailedBreakdown_Up needs raw cv>=75). Not carded. |
| AXP | American Express Co | 350.79 | HOLD | 348.91 | 339.95 | n/a | 366.86 (+5.1%) | 395.50 (+13.4%) | BUY-ADD cv66 on the good pullback cell, but val_adj -3 (OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -0.566) -> adj 63 < 65 floor; Q2 earnings 07-24 (3 sessions) argue against staging an add into the print (L6). Not queued. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings | 30.29 | HOLD | 29.86 | 29.02 | n/a | 31.52 (+5.6%) | 36.09 (+20.9%) | BUY-ADD cv66 but val_adj -10 (MoS -2.806) -> adj 56 < 65 floor; extended -0.60 ATR besides. Not queued. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands | 130.66 | SELL ALL | 130.66 | 125.85 | n/a | n/a | 99.71 (-23.7%) | Carry-forward: the 07-20 SELL 100pct dust close-out did NOT execute at the 07-21 open (holdings unchanged, monitor no-trade) — re-queued pending_next_open for 07-22. Signal faded to AVOID cv56 but the 13F-seed sub-lot wind-down still stands. Escalate to a market close-out if unfilled again. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 81.84 | SELL ALL | 81.84 | 76.54 | n/a | n/a | 63.50 (-22.4%) | Carry-forward: the 07-20 SELL 100pct dust close-out did NOT execute at the 07-21 open — re-queued pending_next_open 07-22. Still STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv70 (5th+ consecutive REDUCE, 12wk -22pct); thesis intact. Escalate to a market close-out if unfilled again. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
23 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.025 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.