Recommendations
1 to acquire · 6 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 489.70 | ADD — QUEUED @480.93 | 480.93 | 464.18 | 490.99 (+2.1%) | 514.49 (+7.0%) | 556.59 (+15.7%) | Moody's Q2 beat and raised full-year guidance (revenue +15%, adjusted EPS +31% to, adj op-margin +440bp to 55.3%, FY adj-EPS midpoint) — a clean post-earnings PullbackBuy_VWAP we add to on a disciplined pullback rather than chasing the +1.8% post-beat close. Queued GTC limit @480.93 (1.8% below close),, size x0.75 for the -1.33 MoS; extended -0.61 ATR so pullback-only, no gap-chase (L6). Adj clears the 65 floor. 12wk 556.59 exceeds the DCF anchor. expires 07-27. · news |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 342.09 | SELL 30% | 342.09 | 325.00 | n/a | n/a | 304.19 (-11.1%) | Alphabet's Q2 beat on revenue and EPS with Google Cloud +82% and RPO, but shares fell ~2% after-hours on a raised capex guide (-205B) and an operating-margin miss — and the 07-22 close (342.09) already broke the 345 hold-through line, invalidating the standing override. With the earnings catalyst resolved against the hold and the row printing NO TRADE cv0 on a negative 12wk (-11%), the hold-through thesis is spent; take a measured 30% de-risk (keep the core — a fundamental beat, only capex spooked it) rather than repeat the 4-day NO-TRADE bleed (US-1). Sell at the 07-23 open (likely ~-2% gap; de-risk stands, reprice ref only), residual on a stop. · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 341.91 | SELL 30% | 341.91 | 325.00 | n/a | n/a | 307.28 (-10.1%) | Alphabet Cl C — same de-risk as GOOGL: Q2 beat overshadowed by a raised capex guide (-2% after-hours), the 07-22 close (341.91) broke the 343 override line, NO TRADE cv0 with a -10% 12wk. Trim 30% at the 07-23 open, residual on a stop. · news |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 262.59 | SELL 50% | 262.59 | 255.00 | n/a | n/a | 241.45 (-8.1%) | VeriSign decisively broke its 265.40 trailing stop (close 262.59, -1.06%) with a negative 12-week view (241.45, -8%) — L2's stop-break + negative-forward exit fires even though the label is only AVOID cv53 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D, an actionable -1 sell cell). Measured 50% trim on a small line in a whipsaw family; residual on a tightened stop. |
| AXP | American Express Co | 348.74 | HOLD | 349.54 | 339.95 | n/a | 366.56 (+4.9%) | 388.30 (+11.1%) | BUY-ADD cv73 -> adj 70 clears the 65 floor (val_adj -3, MoS -0.541) and not extended (+0.11 ATR), but Q2 earnings land 07-24 (2 sessions) — L6/catalyst discipline defers staging an add into the print. Not queued; revisit post-07-24 earnings. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 232.08 | HOLD | 228.89 | 222.07 | n/a | 242.55 (+6.0%) | 315.26 (+37.7%) | BUY-ADD cv71 -> adj 61 < 65 (val_adj -10, MoS -3.83 on a broken DVA FV anchor of 48.05 vs DCF 371.96); G3 also blocks any trim (12wk +37.7%). Hold, keep trail 226.03. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 83.52 | HOLD | 83.52 | 84.68⚠ | n/a | n/a | 91.67 (+9.8%) | Decisive-looking -1.37% stop break (83.52 vs 84.68) but held the prior-set 83.50 exit line by; signal degraded to STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv31 BreakdownDown_20D Sell_Rank 4, yet 12wk +9.8% (91.67, positive) so L2 does not fire and adj 31 is far below the floor; prior news overrode (Q2 beat, div +15%, 21/24 Strong Buy). Keep the 83.50 line; a decisive close below 83.50 exits 50% at the following open. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 192.98 | HOLD | — | 184.64 | n/a | n/a | 196.99 | Armed (+14%, Gain_ATR 7.11) but not fired: cv27->22 (-5, no collapse), 12wk 196.99 not dead vs close 191.32; trimmed 07-20, no re-trim (optional_trim counterfactual). Raise trail 184..64 (2.0xATR chandelier). |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 343.23 | ADD FILLED | 348.24 | 332.71 | n/a | 362.35 (+4.1%) | 367.22 (+5.5%) | The 07-21 queued GTC-limit @348.24 FILLED at the 07-22 open, +, drew to). Now HOLD cv70, flipped UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.006, FV 345.17). Keep stop 332.71. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 57.50 | SELL 30% | 56.53 | 53.48 | n/a | n/a | 56.38 (-0.3%) | Carry-forward: the 07-21 SELL 30% profit-take did NOT execute (holdings unchanged 3,766). Still armed (+17.6%, Gain_ATR 5.83) + dead-12wk (56.38<56.53); re-queued pending 07-23, keep 2,636-sh target, trail 53.48. Escalate to market close-out if unfilled again. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands | 132.08 | SELL ALL | 132.08 | 125.85 | n/a | n/a | 100.95 (-23.6%) | Carry-forward (3rd consecutive): the 07-20 SELL 100% dust close-out is still unexecuted. AVOID cv61, 12wk -23.5%. Escalate to a market-at-open close-out, execute 07-23. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 82.15 | SELL ALL | 82.15 | 77.53 | n/a | n/a | 63.13 (-23.2%) | Carry-forward (3rd consecutive): the 07-20 SELL 100% dust close-out is still unexecuted; re-confirms STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv78 Sell_Rank 1, 12wk -23%. Escalate to a market-at-open close-out, execute 07-23. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
26 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.025 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.