Recommendations
1 to acquire · 6 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 61.28 | ADD — QUEUED @59.93 | 59.93 | 58.58 | 60.73 (+1.3%) | 62.61 (+4.5%) | 73.55 (+22.7%) | BAC is a strong-trending core financial (close 61.28 > EMA50 57.04 > EMA200 53.12, RSI 65) printing a fresh PullbackBuy_VWAP BUY-ADD; the add is queued as a GTC limit at the model 59.93 pullback entry so it fills only on a ~2.2% dip, never chasing the extended close (EdATR -1.17). Adj conv 73 -2 (MoS -0.43) -3 (book PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy bias, n=5 hit.333) = 68, clears the 65 floor. Size x1.0. 45,988-sh model portion is a large single add vs the - scalable at discretion; within. Quality gate off (ADD to held). expires 07-28; withdraw if it flips off PullbackBuy or drops <65 at the open (US-8/US-10). 12wk 73.55 exceeds the RI fair-value anchor (OVERVALUED_VS_RI) - assumes growth beyond priced-in. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 81.97 | SELL 50% | 81.97 | 79.50 | n/a | n/a | 87.49 (+6.7%) | Loss-prevention exit: DAL decisively broke the pre-committed 83.50 exit line (close 81.97, -1.8%) and the 84.68 monitor stop (-3.2%), now NO TRADE cv0, RSI 39.5 falling, below EMA50 82.70, -11.6% underwater (GainATR -4.71). News confirms the weakness is a broad airline selloff on crude +7.5% (Iran ceasefire ended) plus a Raymond James downgrade to Outperform - a real macro/rating headwind, not an oversold anomaly (RSI 39.5, no reversal print), which is what separates DAL from the Alphabet hold. Honouring the pre-committed contingency at the measured 50% (NoTrade|sell scorecard cell is -10 / 0-of-5 hit, so keep it to the pre-set portion, not a full exit) and hold on a 79.50 stop. 12wk 87.49 is the recovery scenario foregone on the sold half. Sell row prints no Target_Price so 1wk/4wk are n/a; near-term downside ~Est_Low 79.76. · news |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 70.17 | SELL 50% | 70.17 | 68.00 | n/a | n/a | 62.15 (-11.4%) | L2 exit (stop-break + negative 12wk): NYT decisively broke its 71.22 stop (close 70.17, -1.47%), turned 12wk negative (62.15, -11.4%) and sits below EMA200 71.79 / EMA50 74.50, NO TRADE cv0, RSI 38.5 - a confirmed downtrend, not an oversold bounce setup. News confirms: BofA cut its PT to from on media-sector multiple compression plus softer subscriber-growth and FCF-margin concerns. Measured 50% (NoTrade|sell cell -10 caution -> trim not full exit); hold on a 68.00 stop. Sell row no Target_Price -> 1wk/4wk n/a; 12wk 62.15 is the downside stepped out of. · news |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 261.58 | SELL 50% | 261.58 | 244.95 | n/a | n/a | 236.00 (-9.8%) | Re-affirms the 07-22 pending 50% trim, now a fresh STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv73 (RallySell_BearTrend, Sell_Rank 3; that cell has hit 3-of-3, report-only). L2 confirmed: below the 265.40 trail, below EMA200 264.91, negative 12wk 236.00 (-9.8%). Measured 50% (small line, whipsaw-prone family); hold on a 244.95 stop. Val GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -2.00 (> -3, no amplify). Sell row no Target_Price -> 1wk/4wk n/a; 12wk 236.00 = downside stepped out of. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 129.27 | SELL ALL | 129.27 | 121.72 | n/a | n/a | 97.23 (-24.8%) | Dust close-out escalated to market-at-open (5th carry, unexecuted since 07-20). Re-confirms STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv73, negative 12wk 97.23 (-24.8%). 23-sh dust; execute in full at the open. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 82.13 | SELL ALL | 82.13 | 77.74 | n/a | n/a | 62.78 (-23.6%) | Dust close-out escalated to market-at-open (5th carry). SELL - REDUCE cv72 BreakdownDown_52W, deeply negative 12wk 62.78 (-23.6%), below EMA200 99.35. 34-sh dust; execute in full at the open. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 80.72 | SELL ALL | 80.72 | 75.81 | n/a | n/a | 63.06 (-21.9%) | Dust close-out (re-cards now at cv78 >= 65). STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv78 FailedBreakout_Down_20D Sell_Rank 1, negative 12wk 63.06 (-21.9%), below EMA200 95.23. 9-sh dust; execute in full at the open. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 194.42 | HOLD | — | 187.18 | n/a | n/a | 202.83 | Armed (+14.9%, GainATR 6.97) but the cv22->0 move is signal drop-out at an extended level (RSI 71), not deterioration, and 12wk 202.83 is still +4.3% alive; NoTrade|sell -10 and the trims-give-back counterfactual argue no re-trim (already trimmed 07-20). Raise the trail to 187.18 (2.0xATR chandelier) and hold. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 241.15 | HOLD | — | 227.95 | n/a | n/a | 244.58 | Armed (GainATR 3.09, +9.2%) but AVOID cv55 with 12wk 244.58 only +1.4% alive; already halved 07-16, no fresh fire tick. Raise the trail to 227.95 and hold the residual. |
| AXP | American Express Co | 340.84 | HOLD | — | 333.51 | n/a | n/a | 370.36 | Conviction collapsed and price fell to 340.84 into its Q2 earnings TODAY (07-24). Catalyst-aware hold-through: widen the stop to the model 333.51 (below the print) to avoid an earnings whipsaw; re-assess post-earnings. No add (cv42 < floor), no pre-trim into the catalyst. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
34 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.025 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.