Recommendations
2 to acquire · 6 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.05 | ADD — QUEUED @60.06 | 60.06 | 57.81 | 60.84 (+1.3%) | 62.67 (+4.3%) | 74.69 (+24.4%) | Re-queue of the unfilled 07-23 add: STRONG BUY-ADD cv80 on the reliable PullbackBuy_VWAP cell, held core +4.4%, strong trend (close>EMA50>EMA200, RSI 68). Extended -1.77 ATR past entry so queue a no-chase pullback limit @60.06 (L1). Model Portion 99.33% would double the at-target core; capped to the ~30% BUY-ADD tranche. RSI_DIV noted but RSI<75. 12wk exceeds the RI anchor (OVERVALUED_VS_RI) - assumes growth beyond priced-in. Withdraw if it flips off PullbackBuy or drops <65 at the open. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 333.02 | ADD — QUEUED @308.38 | 308.38 | 298.50 | 314.32 (+1.9%) | 328.17 (+6.4%) | 395.90 (+28.4%) | STRONG BUY-ADD cv80 (Buy_Rank 1) on PullbackBuy_VWAP but richly valued (GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -3.16, val_adj -10, size x0.5) and extended -2.89 ATR. The 308.38 VWAP-pullback limit is 7.5% below the 333.02 close => effectively inert; queued at a small tranche capped from the model portion. 12wk 395.9 exceeds DCF anchor 208.95 - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. Adj conv 67 barely clears the 65 floor. |
| AXP | American Express Co | 326.17 | SELL 30% | — | 318.00 | n/a | n/a | 338.35 | Q2 beat (EPS vs, revenue +10%, FY revenue guide raised to +10%) but the stock fell ~5% on expenses +12% and a higher tax rate - a margin reaction, not a demand-thesis break. The pre-committed 333.51 catalyst-hold stop broke decisively (-2.2%) post-print; cv collapsed ->0, RSI ->37 with NO reversal print (unlike the oversold Alphabet hold). Measured 30% de-risk honoring the broken stop, held to 30% (not full) by the beat+raise and the book's NoTrade|sell -10 (names bounce). 12wk +3.7% => stop-discipline exit, not neg-12wk. Tighten remainder stop to. · news |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 42.92 | SELL 30% | — | 41.00 | n/a | n/a | 41.62 | L2 fires: decisive close below the 43.47 stop (-1.27%) + negative 12wk 41.62 (-3.0%); RSI ->38 a steady decline (not a spike), NO TRADE x2, armed but deteriorating. Measured 30% de-risk (NoTrade|sell -10 caution -> trim not full). Tighten remainder stop to. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6414.67 | SELL ALL | — | 5887.49 | n/a | n/a | 5947.32 | Active STRONG SELL-REDUCE x4 (FailedBreakout_Down_20D cv65, SR4), 52W breakdown, 12wk 5947.32 (-7.3%); the homebuilder complex NVR/LEN/LEN-B is breaking down. Bounced +4.2% on the anchor day but the sell signal held. Dust - close it. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 130.16 | SELL ALL | — | 123.40 | n/a | n/a | 97.61 | Active STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv66, 12wk 97.61 (-25%); dust carried 6th session - executor sell-path blocker, not the call. Escalate to market-at-open. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 84.64 | SELL ALL | — | 79.17 | n/a | n/a | 66.30 | Active STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv75, 12wk 66.3 (-22%); homebuilder breakdown. Dust carried - escalate to market-at-open. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 82.92 | SELL ALL | — | 77.88 | n/a | n/a | 66.20 | Active STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv76 (SR1), 12wk 66.2 (-20%); homebuilder breakdown. Dust carried - escalate to market-at-open. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 194.79 | HOLD | — | 189.50 | n/a | n/a | 206.46 | Armed (+15.1%) but the cv22->0 drop is an RSI-71 breakout drop-out, not deterioration; 12wk +6% alive. Trims give back (07-23 lesson) -> raise the trail to 189.50, don't re-trim. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 57.30 | HOLD | — | 55.20 | n/a | n/a | 58.41 | Armed (+17.2%); single-print cv75->0 collapse but was BUY-ADD just yesterday and trims give back -> trail-raise to 55.20, don't trim. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 471.50 | HOLD | — | 458.00 | n/a | n/a | 503.09 | NO TRADE x2 and the just-filled add is underwater (471.5 < 488.58 cost) - not a profit-take despite the spurious PROFIT_ARMED flag. Hold, stop 458; no re-trim on a fresh add. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 247.56 | HOLD | — | 236.64 | n/a | n/a | 258.78 | Armed, HOLD cv80 (AnticipationUp_VCP, not a BUY-ANTICIPATE action), 12wk +4.5% alive. Raise the trail to 236.64. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 235.44 | HOLD | — | 232.74 | n/a | n/a | 314.59 | HOLD cv61, RSI 64, 12wk +33.6% alive; not armed, G3 blocks any trim. Raise trail to 232.74. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 319.74 | HOLD | — | 300.00 | n/a | n/a | 252.47 | Oversold RSI 32 hold continues (de-risk stays withdrawn); capex-fear overshoot on a Q2 beat, GOOG twin prints ReversalUp_Oversold. Hold full on the 300 stop. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 319.09 | HOLD | — | 300.00 | n/a | n/a | 255.48 | Oversold RSI 33; 07-24 printed ReversalUp_Oversold cv84. Hold full on the 300 stop. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 359.75 | HOLD | — | 341.00 | n/a | n/a | 392.79 | HOLD cv75, armed, 12wk +9% alive. Carry the 341 stop, no fresh trigger. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 82.25 | HOLD | — | 79.10 | n/a | n/a | 82.46 | HOLD cv57, 12wk flat (+0.3%). Carry the 79.10 stop. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 23.38 | HOLD | — | 21.63 | n/a | n/a | 25.70 | HOLD cv68, 12wk +10% alive. Carry the 21.63 stop. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 29.80 | HOLD | — | 29.38 | n/a | n/a | 33.82 | HOLD cv55 (below the 65 add floor after the -3 haircut). Carry the 29.38 stop. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 25.67 | HOLD | — | 25.25 | n/a | n/a | 29.02 | Fresh HOLD cv69 (was NO TRADE x3), 12wk +13% alive but no buy trigger yet. Carry the 25.25 stop. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 202.84 | HOLD | — | 190.65 | n/a | n/a | 212.81 | Fresh HOLD cv51, armed, 12wk +5% alive. Carry the 190.65 stop. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
34 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.025 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.