Recommendations
2 to acquire · 7 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.62 | ADD — QUEUED @62.55 | 62.55 | 60.29 | 64.58 (+3.2%) | 69.33 (+10.8%) | 74.84 (+19.6%) | America's second-largest bank just posted record net interest income and 34% earnings growth, and management guides full-year NII to the upper end of 6-8% - a business that gets BETTER if the Fed holds or hikes, which is exactly the risk the 29 July FOMC carries. The chart has caught up to the story: the pullback that never came has resolved into a fresh momentum-continuation breakout, and we are buying strength on a stop order rather than chasing it. The one caution is price versus book - at 1.5x tangible book the shares screen mildly rich on our residual-income model, so we add a measured tranche, not a full one. OPS: GTC buy-STOP @62.55 (fills only on strength, self-limiting into the FOMC print); = 29.97% ADD tranche x 1.0 size mod =. Entry band 62.27-62.83. Supersedes and WITHDRAWS the unfilled 07-24 PullbackBuy_VWAP limit @60.06 - family flipped PullbackBuy->MomentumContinuation per US-8, so the old order is void and the action price is repriced to the live 07-27 Entry_Price. MomentumContinuation_Up|buy cell is n=1 (report-only, 0-of-1) - no bias applied, but flagged. Quality_Pass False does NOT gate an ADD to a held name. RSI 68.7 with RSI_DIV but <75, so not a chase; EDATR +0.37 = at/below entry. expires_on 07-30. · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 340.08 | ADD — QUEUED @316.32 | 316.32 | 300.05 | 321.98 (+1.8%) | 335.19 (+6.0%) | 405.45 (+28.2%) | Apple is the strongest signal on the board - a perfect 100-conviction pullback-buy at the top of the buy ranks, with the stock at an all-time high and a ~$5tn market value. That is also the problem: at 39x trailing earnings the shares sit ABOVE the average Wall Street price target, and our own cash-flow work says growth is fully priced in - the biggest valuation penalty in the book. So we will happily own more Apple, but only at a price: a limit 6% below the close, half size, and cancelled before the 30 July earnings print so we are not caught buying into a gap in either direction. If it never fills, nothing is lost. OPS: GTC buy-LIMIT @316.32 (6.1% below the 336.91 close, EDATR -2.53 = extended, no-chase per L1). = 29.97% ADD tranche x 0.5 size mod (MoS <= -3) =; the model's 99.33% portion would near-double a core (25% of the sleeve) and is capped. Entry band 314.29-318.35. Supersedes the unfilled 07-24 limit @308.38 - repriced to the live Entry_Price per the provenance rule. expires_on 2026-07-30 = the DAY OF the Q3 FY26 print (AMC), deliberately pre-earnings so the order cannot fill into an earnings gap (L6 + catalyst-aware hold). PROFIT_ARMED + RSI_DIV present but conviction ROSE and 12wk is +20% - no deterioration tick, so trail-raise 298..05 on the core rather than trim. 12wk 405.45 exceeds the 208.95 DCF anchor. · news |
| AXP | American Express Co | 336.63 | SELL 30% | 335.39 | 318.00 | n/a | n/a | 342.45 (+2.1%) | American Express bounced 2.4% on Monday after six straight losing sessions - and that bounce is precisely what we are selling into. The Q2 print beat on earnings but missed on revenue, and management has told investors the 12% jump in expenses persists through the end of 2026; a rally inside a downtrend, on a card issuer whose cost base is re-rating, is a gift rather than a recovery. We take a measured third off the table at a better price than Friday's and keep the rest: the stock has reclaimed its 200-day average, the 12-week view is still (barely) positive, and analysts argue it is 13% cheap. This is risk management on the book's second-largest position, not an exit from the name. OPS: 10,398 of @ ~335.39 close-ref =; remainder on a stop (tighter than the signal's 313.76 - keep the tighter). EXECUTES the 07-24 30% de-risk that was pre-committed and never filled (L3), repriced +2.8% higher; the delay paid. Model portion is 88.52% (target full exit) but held at 30%: close 335.39 is back ABOVE both the 333.51 catalyst stop and EMA200 330.62, 12wk 342.45 is +2.1%, and this book's RallySell_BearTrend|sell cell is -3 (n=5, hit.33) while NoTrade|sell is 0-of-7. MoS -0.54 > -3 so no valuation amplify. Sell rows print no Target_Price -> 1wk/4wk n/a; scan Est band 319.98-349.10. · news |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 102.67 | SELL 30% | 102.26 | 97.07 | n/a | n/a | 100.47 (-1.8%) | This Liberty tracking stub failed at its 20-day high and rolled over, and the model's forward view has now turned outright negative - the first active sell it has flagged here after four quiet sessions. The position is already underwater, there is no company news to argue with, and the sister A-share is printing its own bearish signal, so the whole complex is turning together. We take a third off and keep the rest on a defined stop. OPS: 960 of @ ~102.26 =; remainder on the signal stop. Basis = active STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv65 on FailedBreakout_Down_20D (the book's ONLY positive actionable sell cell, +1, n=16, hit.54) + negative 12wk 100.47 (-1.7%) + -4.39%. Model portion 88.52% held to 30%: fresh single print (prior 4 = NO TRADE), thin/illiquid stub, NA valuation (val_adj 0, quality gate off), and this book's repeated bounce-after-sell record. Sibling LLYVA prints AVOID cv50 - corroborating; hold LLYVA on its stop. No Target_Price on sell rows -> 1wk/4wk n/a; scan Est band 99.16-104.99. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 53.93 | SELL 50% | 54.93 | 53.30 | n/a | n/a | 54.88 (-0.1%) | The reason Occidental is up 12% for us has just been removed: crude sold off hard after Washington and Tehran suspended military operations and reopened talks, deflating the geopolitical risk premium that drove the entire move. The stock has stopped rising, slipped through our trailing stop, and the model's 12-week view is now dead flat - no upside left to pay us for the oil-price risk we would carry into an August earnings print. We bank half the gain and let the rest run on a reset stop. OPS: PROFIT-TAKE FIRED (ADR-0012) - armed (Gain_ATR 3.76 >= 3.0, T12_Progress 100.1% >= 90) with TWO deterioration ticks: (c) dead forward view, 12wk 54.88 < 1.02 x 54.93 close; (d) 2 consecutive NO TRADE prints (07-24, 07-27). 2 ticks -> profit_take_2 = 50%. 1,883 of @ ~54.93 =, banking +12.31%. Corroborated by a stop breach (close 54.93 vs trail 55.20, -0.49%, marginal not decisive). Remainder : stop RESET to (the old 55.20 trail now sits above spot). MoS -3.29 would bump the tier but G2 SUPPRESSES the valuation amplify - 12wk 54.88 vastly exceeds the 33.47 DCF anchor (unreliable on a commodity name) - and the never-100%-from-profit-take guard stands. Q2 earnings 08-05 (outside the 5-session window); Evercore's 07-08 double-upgrade to predates the crude break. No Target_Price -> 1wk/4wk n/a. · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 187.58 | NO ACTION | — | 189.50⚠ | n/a | n/a | 200.12 | Chevron is sitting on a 12% gain and the same crude-price unwind that triggered the Occidental sale applies here, so a partial profit-take is genuinely on the table. It loses its place on size alone - with only three disposal slots, the two loss-prevention sells and the larger Occidental trim come first. We hold on a tight trailing stop a quarter of a percent below the close, which does much the same job at no execution cost. OPS: PROFIT-TAKE FIRED but DISPLACED by the <=3 DISPOSE cap. Armed (Gain_ATR 5.16, T12_Progress 94.9%); tick (d) = 3 consecutive NO TRADE prints (07-23/24/27). 1 tick -> would be a 30% trim = @ ~190.00 = (smallest banked dollars of the fired set after OXY). Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices what the cap cost. Trail HELD at, NOT raised - close 190.00 is only 0.26% above it and raising would stop us out on noise. A close below 189.50 is a FULL exit, no further discretion. RSI.7, 12wk 200.12 still +5.3%. · news |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 281.15 | NO ACTION | 274.82 | 251.87 | n/a | 297.77 (+8.4%) | 261.06 (-5.0%) | VeriSign has run 7% above our cost and the model's 12-week view has quietly dropped below today's price - the forward case has gone dead even as the stock rallies. That fires a small profit-take on the rules, but at it is the smallest of the day and loses its slot; raising the trailing stop by seven dollars captures most of the same protection. OPS: PROFIT-TAKE FIRED but DISPLACED by the <=3 DISPOSE cap. Armed (Gain_ATR 1.60, T12_Progress 105.3%); tick (c) = dead forward view, 12wk 261.06 < 1.02 x 274.82 = 280.32. 1 tick -> would be a 30% trim = @ ~274.82 =. Ledgered optional for counterfactual grading. Trail RAISED 244.95 -> (signal stop). Note the 07-23 VRSN sell was withdrawn at 261.58 and the name is +5.1% higher since - the NoTrade|sell -10 lesson keeps earning its keep. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 89.37 | HOLD | 86.67 | 81.04 | n/a | n/a | 93.84 (+8.3%) | Delta printed an active sell signal today and on dollar size it would have taken the second disposal slot - we are declining it. The signal has flip-flopped four times in five sessions, the stock is 21% above its 200-day average with momentum turning up, the 12-week view is +8%, and the last two times this book tried to sell Delta it went higher: we withdrew a sell at 81.97 and it now trades at 86.67. Selling a name in a live uptrend because it failed one 20-day high is cutting the winner. We hold the full position and raise the stop instead. OPS: NOT DISPOSED. Active STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv65 on the +1 cell, at model portion (would rank #2 by dollar bleed). Rejected on the ACT-NOW stability bar: AVOID -> STRONG SELL -> NO TRADE x2 -> STRONG SELL in 5 sessions. Close 86.67 vs EMA200 71.73 (+20.8%), RSI rising, 12wk 93.84 (+8.3%) - G3's forward-view logic says trail, don't trim. Stop RAISED 79.50 -> (the signal's own stop). Position is -6.56% underwater vs the 92.75 seed cost - if 81.04 breaks, that is the exit. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 363.50 | HOLD | — | 341.96 | n/a | n/a | 394.69 | Armed on 12-week progress but nothing has deteriorated - conviction eased, well short of the 20-point drop that would trigger a sale, and the forward view is still 10% higher. Trail up and let it work. OPS: armed-not-fired (T12_Progress 90.9%, Gain_ATR 0.65); no tick - cv = -13 (<20), 12wk 394.69 alive, HOLD not NO TRADE. Trail-raise 341.00 -> (signal stop). MoS +0.006 UNDERVALUED but Quality_Pass False. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 265.62 | HOLD | — | 236.64 | n/a | n/a | 264.33 | Nucor keeps coiling tighter with conviction rising into the high 80s and a 12% gain banked - the strongest hold in the book. Nothing to do but keep the stop where it is. OPS: armed-not-fired (Gain_ATR 3.92); cv RISING, 12wk 264.33 (+6.6%) alive, no tick. Signal stop 235.87 is BELOW the existing trail - KEEP, never lower a trail. Prints AnticipationUp_VCP as HOLD, not BUY - ANTICIPATE, so it remains INELIGIBLE for the anticipate slot (2nd session running). |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 212.41 | HOLD | — | 195.04 | n/a | n/a | 219.24 | Capital One has firmed up - conviction is climbing and the forward view has improved to +6%. We just move the stop up underneath it. OPS: armed via T12_Progress 94.4% (Gain_ATR 0.32); cv rising, no tick. Trail-raise 190.65 ->. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 88.27 | HOLD | — | 80.79 | n/a | n/a | 85.51 | Coke's signal has strengthened materially - conviction - and it is back to roughly flat on our cost. Raise the stop. OPS: PROFIT_ARMED is SPURIOUS here (Gain_ATR -0.04, position underwater) - the known arming bug, not a real profit-take. HOLD cv75 rising, 12wk 85.51 (+1.7%). Trail-raise 79.10 ->. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 25.15 | HOLD | — | 23.77 | n/a | n/a | 28.31 | Macy's jumped 6.8% with conviction vaulting to 86 and a 13% forward view - the biggest single-day improvement in the book, though at the position is immaterial. Trail it up. OPS: HOLD cv, 12wk 28.31 (+13.4%), no sell trigger. Trail-raise 21.63 ->. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 27.30 | HOLD | — | 25.70 | n/a | n/a | 29.93 | Kraft Heinz is the one genuinely cheap name in the book on our numbers and is now 3% in the money with a 14% forward view - but it still has not printed a buy trigger, so we hold rather than add. OPS: HOLD cv69->60, 12wk 29.93 (+14.2%). MoS +0.33 UNDERVALUED but Quality_Pass False, so no new-entry case; ADD only on a trigger. Trail-raise 25.25 ->. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 239.46 | HOLD | — | 233.38 | n/a | n/a | 313.94 | DaVita carries the largest forward upside in the book at +33%, with conviction improving. Nothing on the sell side while the trend is intact. OPS: HOLD cv, 12wk 313.94 (+32.8%) - G3 blocks any trim outright. Trail-raise 232.74 ->. MoS -3.83 is the deepest in the book but valuation NEVER originates a sell (CLAUDE.md 9) and there is no signal-based reason here. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 31.68 | HOLD | — | 29.64 | n/a | n/a | 36.07 | Sirius broke out to a 52-week high, up 4.8% on the day. Conviction at 63 is below our add threshold, so we ride it with a higher stop rather than buy more. OPS: HOLD cv55->63, signal flipped PullbackBuy_VWAP -> BreakoutUp_52W; RSI_DIV present but Gain_ATR 0.79 = NOT armed, so no profit-take. Below the 65 add floor. Trail-raise 29.38 ->. Note L1: BreakoutUp_52W 4wk targets historically overshoot - treat the 37.02 target sceptically. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 484.20 | HOLD | — | 458.00 | n/a | n/a | 518.14 | Moody's recovered 3% and printed a fresh hold after two blank sessions, but the position is still marginally underwater so there is nothing to take profit on. Carry the stop. OPS: PROFIT_ARMED SPURIOUS (Gain_ATR -0.17, underwater). Signal stop 455.26 is BELOW the existing - keep. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 333.71 | HOLD | — | 300.00 | n/a | n/a | 253.91 | Alphabet is recovering from deeply oversold - RSI up from and price back above its 200-day average - which vindicates the decision not to sell into that weakness. Q2 is behind us; the 29 July Fed decision is the next event. Hold on the line. OPS: NO TRADE x5, close 326.56 vs EMA200 319.15 (holding above). Model 12wk 253.91 is -22% but that is the known post-selloff projection collapse, not a fresh signal - L2 needs a STOP BREAK too, and 300 is untouched. Overlay's 345-invalidation resolved. FOMC 07-29 flagged two-sided +/-3% (horizon, stance tighten-trail). |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 332.60 | HOLD | — | 300.00 | n/a | n/a | 257.76 | Same call as the A-shares - oversold and recovering; hold on the stop. OPS: NO TRADE, RSI.9, close 326.57 vs EMA200 318.07. Printed ReversalUp_Oversold cv84 on 07-23; carry the stop. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 75.18 | HOLD | — | 68.00 | n/a | n/a | 63.21 | The Times has bounced 3.1% since we withdrew a sell here, but the model's 12-week view is still 13% below spot - a watch item, not yet an exit. It needs to break before we act. OPS: NO TRADE x3; 12wk 63.21 (-12.7% NEGATIVE) but L2 requires stop-break AND neg-12wk - stop untouched (close 72.37). Close is only 0.8% above EMA200 71.81 - that is the line to watch. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 99.48 | HOLD | — | 91.00 | n/a | n/a | 96.21 | The A-share of the Liberty stub we are trimming today - same failed breakout, but it prints only an avoid rating rather than an active sell, so we hold it and act on the C-share. OPS: AVOID cv50 = bearish, do-not-add; NOT a REDUCE so not in the sell pool. Corroborates the LLYVK 30% trim. 12wk 96.21 (-2.6%). NA valuation. Carry stop; a REDUCE print or a break brings it into the dispose pool. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 59.19 | SELL ALL | — | 54.53 | n/a | n/a | 43.68 | Kroger has broken down through its 200-day average with a deeply negative forward view and today tripped our stop by 3.9%. At and it goes in the dust close-out queue rather than taking a decision slot. OPS: STOP BREACH -3.91% (close 57.98 vs stop 60.34) + active STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv68 + 12wk 43.68 (-24.7%) + close below EMA200 65.28. Full close-out queued market-at-open. Stop reset. Note MoS +0.05 UNDERVALUED - valuation does NOT veto a signal-based sell. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6471.37 | SELL ALL | — | 5779.16 | n/a | n/a | 5814.10 | Fifth straight session of an active sell on this 3-share, stub, with the whole homebuilder complex breaking down. Queued for close-out since Friday and never filled - escalate. OPS: STRONG SELL - REDUCE x5, cv69, 12wk 5,814.10 (-7.9%), close below EMA200 6,840.60. Carried unexecuted from 07-24; escalate market-at-open. Stop. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 87.65 | SELL ALL | — | 79.79 | n/a | n/a | 68.08 | Homebuilder breakdown, carried for a seventh session. OPS: STRONG SELL - REDUCE x5, cv68, 12wk 68.08 (-19.9%), close 85.04 far below EMA200 99.33. Escalate market-at-open. Stop. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 86.12 | SELL ALL | — | 78.64 | n/a | n/a | 67.83 | Same breakdown, - the highest-conviction sell in the book and the smallest position we own. OPS: STRONG SELL - REDUCE x5, cv76, SR1, 12wk 67.83 (-18.6%), close 83.30 vs EMA200 95.26. Escalate market-at-open. Stop. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 132.02 | HOLD | — | 136.22⚠ | n/a | n/a | 96.97 | Constellation's sell signal has downgraded from an active reduce to a simple avoid, so the close-out we had been carrying no longer has a live signal behind it. At it changes nothing either way - we stand it down and keep watching. OPS: DOWNGRADED from the carried dust close-out - AVOID cv56, no longer a REDUCE, so no active sell basis. 12wk 96.97 (-25.2%) and close 129.71 far below EMA200 146.88 keep it on watch; a REDUCE reprint re-arms the close-out. Stop. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
41 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.025 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.