Recommendations
0 to acquire · 8 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AAPL | Apple Inc | 333.43 | SELL 30% | 333.43 | 317.48 | n/a | n/a | 404.07 (+21.2%) | Banking 30% of an 8% gain in Apple after the shares stopped responding to good news. Q3 results beat on every headline line - EPS vs expected, revenue vs, iPhone vs - yet the stock fell in after-hours trade, with Greater China the one soft spot. That is a sell-the-news tape, and it comes on top of a price already stretched far past any intrinsic anchor: our discounted-cash-flow value is against a close. The trade signal has gone quiet too, collapsing from full conviction to none over two sessions. A beat this clean is why we are trimming 30% rather than exiting; the fade on the beat is why we are trimming at all. Apple stays the largest holding at ~18% of the sleeve. | ADR-0012 profit-take: armed (Gain_ATR 3.11 >= 3.0, +8.04%, genuine arm) + tick (d) 2 consecutive NO TRADE (07-29, 07-30). 1 tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%. MoS -3.26 would bump but G2 suppresses (12wk 404.07 vs DCF 208.95, wide margin). scorecard NoTrade|sell -4 argues minimum tier. Reverses the 07-27 armed-not-fired deferral on its own terms: that deferral was justified by RISING conviction; now ->0. Also reconciles the 07-27 GTC buy-limit @316.32 which EXPIRED unfilled 07-30. L8: earnings landed AFTER this anchor close - reprice if the 07-31 open gaps outside 328.43-338.43 (+-1.5%). Trail raised 300..48 (2.0x ATR) on the remainder. Est band 326.76-351.28. Re-arm: a PullbackBuy_VWAP print back near 316 restores the add case. · news |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 55.95 | SELL 50% | 55.95 | 53.30 | n/a | n/a | 55.26 (-1.2%) | Taking half off Occidental at a +14.4% gain because the oil move that created it has reversed. Crude has fallen from a four-year high near to about as the United States and Iran step back from confrontation, draining the war-risk premium out of energy prices - and Occidental hedges very little, so it takes that swing almost undamped. The position has already passed the 12-week price target we set for it, and the model's own forward view now sits slightly below today's price: there is no upside left in the plan. Banking half locks in the geopolitics-driven gain and leaves half to run if oil stabilises. | ADR-0012 profit-take: armed (Gain_ATR 4.20, T12_Progress 101.25% - target already exceeded) + 2 ticks: (b) conviction (-69), (c) dead forward view 12wk 55.26 < 1.02x55.95 = 57.07. 2 ticks -> profit_take_2 = 50%. MoS -3.17 would bump but BOTH G2 (12wk vs DCF 33.47 on a commodity name) and the never-100%-from-profit-take guard hold it at 50%. Re-fire of the 07-27 pending at a 1.86% better price (55.95 vs 54.93) after 3 sessions of executor failure - L3 says execute, not re-defer. CATALYST TENSION: Q2 earnings 08-05 is now 4 sessions out, inside the 5-session catalyst-aware-hold window; overridden because we execute 07-31 (four sessions AHEAD of the print, not into it), the 12wk target is banked, and the order has been outstanding since 07-27. Stop KEPT 53.30 (2.0x ATR chandelier 52.60 is lower - never lower a trail). · news |
| NYT | New York Times Co | 75.83 | SELL 30% | 75.83 | 70.39 | 77.46 (+2.1%) | 81.27 (+7.2%) | 72.29 (-4.7%) | Trimming 30% of the New York Times after a fast 4.8% run because our 12-week outlook now points below today's price. This is a quality business - one of the two highest-ranked holdings in the book on financial strength - and it has run from to in four sessions with the shorter-term picture still constructive. So this is a partial, not a retreat: we bank the move that has already exceeded our price target and keep 70% of the position. No second-quarter results date is confirmed in the news window, and the company usually reports in early August, so we treat an earnings catalyst as live and take the minimum size. | ADR-0012 profit-take: armed on the T12_Progress leg (104.9%; Gain_ATR 0.73, +2.68% - not a spurious negative-gain arm) + tick (c) dead forward view 12wk 72.29 < 1.02x75.83 = 77.35. 1 tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%. MoS -1.81 > -3 so no valuation amplify. Cell FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell is n=1 report-only, flagged not applied. Held to the minimum tier deliberately: row is HOLD cv59 with a BULLISH 4wk Target_Price 81.27 (+7.2%) and F-Score 9 / Quality_Rank 2. The 1wk/4wk-positive vs 12wk-dead disagreement is what the 30% tier is sized for. Trail raised 68..39. Estimates use f=0.30 (calib_1w 0.025 degenerate, L5). 12wk exceeds DCF anchor 68.16. Unconfirmed early-Aug earnings: do NOT extend this trim before the print. · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 192.31 | NO ACTION | 192.31 | 189.50 | n/a | n/a | 202.34 (+5.2%) | Holding Chevron through tomorrow morning's results rather than trimming into them. The position is up 13.7% and our signal has gone quiet, which would normally argue for banking some gain - but Chevron reports second-quarter results before the opening bell on 31 July, the very session any sale would execute in, and analysts have been revising estimates upward into a quarter expected to more than triple last year's profit, after four straight beats. Selling immediately before a likely-positive event is the one thing our rules explicitly forbid. We keep the stop where it is and let the print decide. | FIRED but BLOCKED by the catalyst-aware hold. Armed (Gain_ATR 5.19, T12prog 95.04) + tick (b) cv. Would have been a 30% trim =. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the restraint. Trail HELD at 189.50, deliberately NOT raised into the print (close 192.31 is 1.5% above; 2.0x ATR chandelier 183.41 is lower anyway). A post-earnings close below 189.50 is a FULL exit, no further discretion. · news |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 61.73 | HOLD | 61.73 | 60.29 | 62.41 (+1.1%) | 64.00 (+3.7%) | 73.13 (+18.5%) | The 27 July order to add Bank of America filled as designed - bought on 28 July only once the stock traded up through, so we bought strength rather than chasing a falling price. The enlarged holding is up 2.7% and is now the book's second-largest position at. No further tranche: conviction has eased below our threshold for adding. We hold and let the stop do the work. | RECONCILE - the book's FIRST confirmed queued-order fill., (+45,988); cash -> (-vs = costs/slippage). The buy path works; the sell path remains dead. Now HOLD cv62 (below the 65 add floor). TRAIL KEPT 60.29 - the model's 61.03 stop is deliberately NOT adopted: it is a fresh-entry stop for a FailedBreakdown_Up_20D trigger sitting only 0.62 ATR below spot, and importing it as a trail on a position would force full liquidation on ordinary noise. 60.29 = 1.28 ATR. See the trail-convention change in Systemic findings. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 130.38 | SELL ALL | 130.38 | 136.22⚠ | n/a | n/a | 100.12 (-23.2%) | Closing the tiny remaining Constellation Brands stake. The shares broke decisively below our stop - down 4.3% through it, the only stop breach in the book today - trade 11% under their long-term trend line, and our 12-week outlook points 23% lower. Small position, clear exit. | L2 fires: decisive stop break (-4.29%, 130.38 vs 136.22) + negative 12wk (100.12, -23.2%) + close 11% below EMA200. UPGRADED from the 07-27 HOLD-watch. Label is AVOID cv56, but L2 is explicitly independent of the label. Dust, realized ~-. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 81.76 | SELL ALL | 81.76 | 78.64 | n/a | n/a | 68.34 (-16.4%) | Closing the residual Lennar Class B stake - it is the only name in the book printing an active sell signal today, with a 12-week outlook 16% below the current price and shares well under their long-term trend. Nine shares; housekeeping. | The day's ONLY active sell print: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv66, Sell_Rank 1, model portion 88.52% taken to 100% as a dust close-out. 12wk 68.34 (-16.4%). Carried unexecuted since 07-20. Dust. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 83.75 | SELL ALL | 83.75 | 79.79 | n/a | n/a | 69.35 (-17.2%) | Closing the residual Lennar Class A stake alongside the B shares - same company, same deteriorating picture: a 12-week outlook 17% below today's price and a share price well below its long-term trend. | AVOID cv52, 12wk 69.35 (-17.2%), close 83.75 vs EMA200 98.86. Carried unexecuted since 07-20. Dust, realized ~-. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6288.68 | SELL ALL | 6288.68 | 5809.98 | n/a | n/a | 5802.49 (-7.7%) | Closing the three-share NVR position. The homebuilder trades below its long-term trend with a 12-week outlook 8% under the current price, and at three shares the holding is too small to manage. | AVOID cv63 (STRONG SELL-REDUCE as recently as 07-29), 12wk 5802.49 (-7.7%), close 6288.68 vs EMA200 6823.36. Carried unexecuted since 07-24. Dust, realized ~-. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 57.86 | SELL ALL | 57.86 | 54.53 | n/a | n/a | 46.53 (-19.6%) | Closing the small Kroger position. Although the shares screen as modestly cheap, the trend is broken - price is below its long-term average and our 12-week outlook is nearly 20% lower. Cheapness alone is not a reason to hold a name whose trend has turned. | AVOID cv45 (down from cv68), 12wk 46.53 (-19.6%), close 57.86 vs EMA200 64.92. UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.04) does NOT veto - valuation never originates or blocks a signal-based exit (CLAUDE.md 9). Carried since 07-27. Dust. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 88.59 | HOLD | 88.59 | 82.57 | n/a | n/a | 98.84 (+11.6%) | Holding Delta and raising the stop. The decision on 27 July to refuse a sell signal here has been vindicated - the shares are 2.2% higher and the 12-week outlook points 11.6% above today's price. We lift the protective stop to to bank part of the move while leaving room to run. | The 07-27 stability-bar refusal was RIGHT: STRONG SELL cv65 at 86.67 -> NO TRADE x2 -> HOLD cv69 at 88.59. Trail raised 81..57 (2.0x ATR; the row's 86.22 is a 0.79-ATR entry stop, rejected as a trail). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 286.58 | HOLD | 286.58 | 263.06 | n/a | n/a | 295.81 (+3.2%) | Holding VeriSign, up 11.8%, and raising the stop to. The position is close to triggering a profit-take but misses on both tests - conviction slipped 19 points where 20 is required, and the 12-week view is fractionally above the threshold. Raising the stop banks the gain without cutting the position. | Armed (T12prog 96.88) but NOT fired: cv = -19, one point under the 20-pt tick (b); 12wk 295.81 clears 1.02x286.58 = 292.31 by a hair, so tick (c) misses too. Mandatory trail-raise 251..06. The 07-23 withdrawal at 261.58 is now +9.6% better. |
| COF | Capital One Financial | 210.14 | HOLD | 210.14 | 198.93 | n/a | n/a | 229.11 (+9.0%) | Holding Capital One with the stop raised to. Conviction is rising, not falling, so there is no case to trim despite the position nearing its price target. | Armed (T12prog 91.72) not fired - cv RISING, no deterioration tick. Trail raised 195..93 (2.0x ATR, and the row's Stop_Price agrees at exactly 2.00 ATR). |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 88.49 | HOLD | 88.49 | 83.64 | n/a | n/a | 98.67 (+11.5%) | Holding Coca-Cola, up 5.2%, with the stop raised to. Conviction has faded but the 12-week outlook is still 11% higher, so we protect the gain rather than sell it. | Trail raised 80..64 (2.0x ATR chandelier). The model's 87.21 Stop_Price is only 0.53 ATR below spot - an entry stop, not a trail - and is deliberately NOT adopted. Not armed today (no PROFIT_ARMED print). |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 333.66 | HOLD | 333.66 | 312.21 | n/a | n/a | 266.10 (-20.2%) | Holding Alphabet A and raising the stop to. The shares have recovered back above their long-term trend line and momentum is repairing from deeply oversold levels. The model's sharply negative 12-week number is a known artefact of the recent selloff rather than a fresh warning, and the position has not broken its stop. | NO TRADE x4 (Consensus conflict + low conviction). Close 333.66 back above EMA200 320.14; RSI recovered to 42.1. The -22% 12wk is the known post-selloff projection collapse, NOT a signal - L2 requires a stop break too, and there is none. Trail raised 300..21 (2.0x ATR). PROFIT_ARMED spurious (Gain_ATR -2.45, -7.29%). Overlay's GOOGL <345 override is long resolved. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 333.68 | HOLD | 333.68 | 312.42 | n/a | n/a | 269.56 (-19.2%) | Holding Alphabet C on the same basis as the A shares - back above its long-term trend, momentum repairing, no stop break. Stop raised to. | Mirrors GOOGL. Close 333.68 vs EMA200 319.07; RSI 42.7. Trail raised 300..42. PROFIT_ARMED spurious (Gain_ATR -2.12). |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 350.15 | HOLD | 350.15 | 341.96 | n/a | n/a | 383.71 (+9.6%) | Holding Chubb with the stop unchanged at. The position is marginally underwater, so there is no profit to protect, and the 12-week outlook remains about 10% higher. | Trail KEPT 341.96 - the model's 332.21 is lower and a trail is never lowered. PROFIT_ARMED is spurious (Gain_ATR -0.36, -0.91%): the T12-progress leg armed it while underwater. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 482.26 | HOLD | 482.26 | 458.00 | n/a | n/a | 506.14 (+5.0%) | Holding Moody's, stop unchanged at Position is slightly underwater with a 12-week view about 5% higher; nothing to act on. | Trail KEPT 458.00 (model 455.96 is lower). PROFIT_ARMED spurious (Gain_ATR -0.48). |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 238.86 | HOLD | 238.86 | 233.38 | n/a | n/a | 315.31 (+32.0%) | Holding DaVita, which carries the strongest forward outlook in the book - our 12-week view is 32% above today's price. It was a strong buy candidate two sessions ago and faded to a hold just below our threshold, and the price has run past the ideal entry, so we are not adding here. A pullback toward would restore the add case. | Closest near-miss on the ACQUIRE side: STRONG BUY-ADD cv88 (07-29) -> HOLD cv64, 1 pt under the 65 floor before adjustment; val_adj -10 (MoS -3.97) takes adjusted to 54. ED -0.65 ATR past the 235.48 entry. G3 blocks any trim despite MoS -3.97 - valuation never originates a sell. Trail KEPT 233.38 (model 229.45 lower). Re-arm: PullbackBuy_VWAP print near 235. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 26.38 | HOLD | 26.38 | 25.70 | n/a | n/a | 31.46 (+19.3%) | Holding Kraft Heinz. It screens as genuinely cheap with a 12-week outlook 19% higher, but it fails our financial-quality screen and prints no trade trigger, so it is a hold rather than an add. Stop unchanged at. | UNDERVALUED MoS +0.32 but Quality_Pass FALSE - the quality gate blocks new entries (does not block ADDs, but there is no buy trigger anyway: NO TRADE, cv0). Was STRONG BUY-ADD cv86 on 07-28. Trail KEPT 25.70. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings | 30.97 | HOLD | 30.97 | 29.64 | n/a | n/a | 36.99 (+19.4%) | Holding Sirius XM. It printed a strong buy signal two sessions ago that has since lapsed to no-trade, so we stand pat with the stop at. | STRONG BUY-ADD cv100 (07-29) -> NO TRADE cv0. Trail KEPT 29.64 (2.0x ATR 28.46 is lower). Discount the 36.99 breakout-family 12wk per L1. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 24.93 | HOLD | 24.93 | 23.77 | n/a | n/a | 29.25 (+17.3%) | Holding Macy's, up 7.2%, with a 12-week outlook 17% higher. Stop unchanged at. | Trail KEPT 23.77 - the model's 24.25 sits only 0.71 ATR below spot and is rejected as a trail under this run's revised convention. Not armed. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 43.48 | HOLD | 43.48 | 41.00 | n/a | n/a | 40.57 (-6.7%) | Holding Ally Financial - the only holding in the book that screens as undervalued against its fair-value anchor. But it has printed no trade signal for four straight sessions and the 12-week outlook is slightly negative, so there is no trigger to act on either way. Stop unchanged at. | NO TRADE x4 cv0. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.06 but Quality_Pass FALSE. 12wk 40.57 (-6.7%) but NO stop break (43.48 vs 41.00) so L2 does not fire. The 07-27 withdrawal stands. PROFIT_ARMED spurious (Gain_ATR -1.40). |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 102.10 | HOLD | 102.10 | 97.12 | n/a | n/a | 104.69 (+2.5%) | Holding Liberty Live Group A, which has recovered from an avoid rating to a firm hold alongside its C-share sibling. Stop raised to. No valuation coverage on this security. | AVOID cv50 -> HOLD cv78. Trail raised 91..12. Valuation NA (negative EPV) - quality gate off, val_adj 0. PROFIT_ARMED spurious (Gain_ATR -0.81). |
| — | usbh acquire side | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No purchases today. Not a single one of the book's 29 names generated a buy signal at the 30 July close - the flattest tape this portfolio has produced. Eight names that were active buy candidates within the last three sessions all lapsed to hold or no-trade. With nothing meeting the entry bar, standing aside is the decision rather than the absence of one. | Buy pool EMPTY - zero bullish actionable Actions in the anchor snapshot; the >=65 adjusted-conviction floor was never reached. ANTICIPATE slot also empty (no BUY - ANTICIPATE print in any of the last 4 snapshots). Near-misses: DVA HOLD cv64 -> adj 54 after val_adj -10; COF HOLD cv78 but no BUY label and a trap cell (US-10); LLYVK cv85 / LLYVA cv78 HOLD, no trigger, NA valuation; BAC HOLD cv62 below floor. 12 rows printed 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
45 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.025 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
18 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.