Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 199.89 | SELL 30% | 199.89 | 199.24 | 201.84 (+1.0%) | n/a | 227.40 (+13.8%) | Chevron is a clear winner in this book - the position is up 18.1% and the business is firing on every cylinder: a new oil and condensate discovery offshore Angola confirmed in mid-August, a second-quarter earnings beat of per share on 1bn of revenue, 4bn of free cash flow, 4bn of debt repaid and $3bn of buybacks in a single quarter, and the shares up 31.6% so far this year. We are banking 30% of the gain anyway, because the trading signal has now gone completely silent for three consecutive sessions after the shares gave back roughly 6% from their 52-week high, and our profit-protection rule exists precisely so that a large unrealised gain is not round-tripped while we wait for a sell signal that may never print. The remaining 70% stays invested; the twelve-week view of is still 13.8% above today's price. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 8.60) + fired on tick (d), 3rd consecutive NO TRADE (08-21/08-24/08-25). G1 cannot soften - NoTrade cv0 is not a BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_* family and cv0 < 80; ticks (b)/(c)/(d) fire regardless of G1. Tick (c) clear: 12wk vs 1.02 x =. One tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%. Valuation MoS -0.744, far from the -3 tier line, no bump. Scorecard NoTrade|sell +0 but hit_4w.250 = the book's WEAKEST actionable cell - recorded against the card, not argued away. Fired 08-24 and unslotted on of materiality; slotted tonight only because the label pool is empty. Action price = settled close (a NO TRADE row prints no Entry_Price); band -. Stop on the retained HELD at = 0.33% cushion - the chandelier (close - 2.0 ATR =) would LOOSEN it and is rejected; a break takes the remainder to review, not to market. 4wk n/a - no Target_Price on a NO TRADE row. f=0.30 (calib_1w -0.086 degenerate, 21st run). L8: executes at the 08-26 open. · news |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 58.41 | SELL 30% | 58.41 | 57.90 | 59.58 (+2.0%) | n/a | 65.45 (+12.1%) | Occidental is the single best position in this book, up 19.4%, and the company is executing strongly - second-quarter revenue grew 52% year on year to 07bn, earnings of per share came in 29.8% ahead of expectations, production beat its own internal targets at 1,433 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, debt keeps coming down and the dividend was raised 8%. The shares are up 46% this year. We are still taking 30% off the table, because the trading signal has gone silent for two consecutive sessions and our profit-protection rule fires on exactly that pattern once a position is this far ahead. Last night's note said in advance that a second silent session would trigger this trim; it arrived, so we are honouring the rule rather than re-arguing it. The other 70% stays invested against a twelve-week view of, 12.1% above today's price. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 6.39, +19.42% on a cost) + fired on tick (d), 2 consecutive NO TRADE cv0 prints (08-24, 08-25). The 08-24 memory named this exact trigger and refused the card pending the second print. Tick (c) clear: 12wk vs 1.02 x =. G1 does not gate tick (d) and cannot soften a cv0 NoTrade row. One tick -> 30% floor. Valuation MoS -0.482, no bump available. Scorecard NoTrade|sell +0, hit_4w.250 - weakest actionable cell, recorded. Action price = settled close (no Entry_Price on a NO TRADE row); band -. Stop on the retained HELD at = 0.87% cushion; chandelier would loosen and is rejected. 4wk n/a. f=0.30 (L5). L8: executes at the 08-26 open, into the PCE print - noted, not a reason to defer a mechanical profit-take. · news |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 28.73 | NO ACTION | 28.73 | 27.81 | n/a | n/a | 26.50 (-7.8%) | The trim proposed on Sirius XM is withdrawn: the shares have recovered 3.2% clear of our stop, so the breach that prompted it has fully resolved. The position is down 5.8% with a soft forward view, so it stays on the watch list. OPERATIONAL: 5th consecutive NO TRADE; breach resolved (close vs stop). Peak stop retained. Re-arms on a close below. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 177.80 | HOLD | 177.80 | 174.64 | n/a | n/a | 105.36 (-40.7%) | DaVita remains the worst holding in the book - down 24.3%, with the model projecting a further 40.7% decline over twelve weeks and the shares screening as expensive against intrinsic value. We are holding anyway, and stating that plainly: our rules do not allow valuation alone to trigger a sale, and every other trigger is currently silent. The shares are still above our stop. OPERATIONAL: 3rd NO TRADE cv0; close above the stop (1.78%), so no L2. MoS -3.376 clears the S9(c) valuation half but the row prints no RSI_DIV/CLIMAX_VOL early-warning code (only the false-positive PROFIT_ARMED - systemic finding 2), so the elevate path cannot open. CLAUDE.md S9: valuation never originates. Dormant, re-arms on any actionable sell label or a close below. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 91.64 | HOLD - one print from a trim | 91.64 | 89.06 | n/a | n/a | 105.56 (+15.2%) | Coca-Cola is up 8.9% and the business keeps beating - management raised full-year guidance to about 5% organic revenue growth with earnings up 9-10%, unit case volume grew 5%, and the dividend was lifted for a 64th consecutive year. The shares are up 33% this year, which is also the concern: they now trade on 27x forward earnings and roughly 71x free cash flow. The trading signal went quiet this session; if it stays quiet tomorrow our profit-protection rule will trigger a 30% trim of what is a position. Flagging that in advance. OPERATIONAL: armed (Gain_ATR 5.59) but NOT fired. HOLD cv43-> -> NO TRADE cv0 = ONE print. Under the OXY precedent set 08-24, a single cv0 flip is not tick (b) - otherwise tick (d)'s explicit 2-consecutive requirement is dead letter. A second NO TRADE on 08-26 fires tick (d) -> @ =. Tick (c) far away (12wk +15.19%). RSI 70.7, under the 75 extension line. MoS -2.250 (deteriorated from -2.085 on the 08-26 refresh), short of -3. Stop HELD - the ADR-0012 chandelier (close - 2.0 ATR =) would LOOSEN it and is refused. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 247.55 | HOLD - stand-down confirmed | 247.55 | 248.53⚠ | n/a | n/a | 251.27 (+1.5%) | Nucor closed fractionally below our stop, by 0.4% - too shallow to act on - and the model's twelve-week view is positive, so the conditions for cutting are not met. The shares have rebounded from the tariff-driven selloff and analysts have reiterated a strong buy with a target, 23.6% above today's price. Holding. OPERATIONAL: monitor breach 0.39% / 0.09 ATR - the shallowest this book has recorded; 12wk +1.50% POSITIVE so L2 cannot fire (it needs both halves). Stop NOT chased down; held at, peak stop (-4.4%, far inside ADR-0020's 15% line, and ADR-0020 is off for this book). Confirms the 08-24 merit stand-down. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 513.11 | HOLD - label weakened | 513.11 | 486.35 | n/a | n/a | 560.07 (+9.2%) | Moody's has drifted from a hold to an avoid on an overbought reading, but the model's twelve-week view is still 9.2% above today's price and the position is up 5.0%. A cautious label with a positive forward view is not a reason to sell. Watching. OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv73 -> AVOID cv53 on ReversalDown_Overbought, RSI 67.2. Scan stop prints ABOVE the close - a short-side level on a long-only book, rejected (systemic finding 4); recorded stop held (5.21% cushion). Not armed (Gain_ATR 2.19). |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.43 | HOLD | 62.43 | 61.28 | n/a | n/a | 68.27 (+9.4%) | Bank of America is the one name in the book whose signal strengthened this week, improving across four consecutive readings, with the model projecting 9.4% upside over twelve weeks. The position is up 3.8%. Holding, no change. OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv39->->64, the only four-print climb in the book. Scan stop is BELOW the recorded - not loosened; held (1.84% cushion). Not armed (Gain_ATR 2.17). Peak stop. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 309.90 | HOLD | 309.90 | 306.15 | n/a | n/a | 301.48 (-2.7%) | Apple is essentially flat against our cost and the signal has been silent for eight straight sessions. Nothing to do. OPERATIONAL: 8th NO TRADE; +0.41% vs cost, 1.22% above the stop. Trim withdrawal of 08-19 stands. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 343.34 | HOLD - trim carried | 343.34 | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 306.36 (-10.8%) | The Class C Alphabet holding carries the same reservations as the Class A line, but with no active sell signal we are holding. The shares sit 6.7% above our stop. OPERATIONAL: 4th consecutive NO TRADE cv0. GOOGL has now converged to the same cv0 reading, closing the dual-class divergence flagged 08-24. Carried, direction none. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 216.24 | HOLD | 216.24 | 208.23 | n/a | n/a | 237.24 (+9.7%) | Capital One is up 5.4% with the model projecting a further 9.7% over twelve weeks and the shares 3.7% clear of our stop. Holding. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0; breach of 08-20 fully resolved. Not armed (Gain_ATR 2.15). Peak stop. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 83.62 | HOLD | 83.62 | 81.36 | n/a | n/a | 77.92 (-6.8%) | Delta is down 9.8% and the forward view is negative, but the shares are 2.7% above our stop and no sell signal is printing, so we hold. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0; 12wk -6.82%; no L2 (no stop break). Peak stop - trail erosion -9.7%, the worst in the book but inside ADR-0020's 15% line (and ADR-0020 is off for usbh). Watch. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 25.32 | HOLD - card retired | 25.32 | 24.15 | n/a | n/a | 25.69 (+1.5%) | Kraft Heinz is flat and the forward view is mildly positive. Nothing to do. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE; 12wk +1.46%; 4.62% above the stop. Retirement of 08-20 stands. |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 107.97 | HOLD - stop raised | 107.97 | 103.21 | n/a | n/a | 114.48 (+6.0%) | Liberty Live Series C holds a firm reading with 6.0% projected upside over twelve weeks. We are raising the protective stop. OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv68, 2nd print. Stop RAISED -> (scan level, 4.41% cushion). Valuation NA (negative EPV) -> val_adj 0. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 104.00 | HOLD - stop raised | 104.00 | 99.29 | n/a | n/a | 109.79 (+5.6%) | Liberty Live Series A holds a firm reading with 5.6% projected upside over twelve weeks. Raising the protective stop. OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv61, 2nd print. Stop RAISED -> (4.53% cushion). Valuation NA -> val_adj 0. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Inc | 135.01 | HOLD - stop raised | 135.01 | 128.18 | n/a | n/a | 122.77 (-9.1%) | Constellation Brands turned to a hold this session. The position is immaterial at but we raise the stop with the signal. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE -> HOLD cv55. Stop RAISED -> (marginal, 5.06% cushion). 12wk -9.07% - watch. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 58.45 | HOLD - immaterial | 58.45 | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 50.70 (-13.3%) | Kroger is a residual line, flat against cost. No action. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0 after the 08-19/08-20 sell labels decayed. 6.13% above stop. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6433.74 | HOLD - immaterial | 6433.74 | 6088.57 | n/a | n/a | 6056.09 (-5.9%) | NVR is a 3-share residual line worth No action. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0; 5.36% above stop. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 22.59 | HOLD - immaterial | 22.59 | 22.49 | n/a | n/a | 20.82 (-7.8%) | Macy's is a residual line sitting just 0.4% above our stop with a negative forward view. Too small to act on, but the stop is live. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0; breach of 08-24 RESOLVED but the cushion is only 0.44%. Peak stop. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 87.68 | HOLD - immaterial | 87.68 | 82.64 | n/a | n/a | 82.71 (-5.7%) | Lennar Class A is a 34-share residual line worth No action. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 86.12 | HOLD - immaterial | 86.12 | 81.78 | n/a | n/a | 82.21 (-4.5%) | Lennar Class B is a 9-share residual line worth No action. OPERATIONAL: NO TRADE cv0. |
| — | Acquire pool | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No purchases today. For the third session running the model is not flagging a single buy candidate anywhere in this 29-name universe - 19 names read as no-trade, 5 as avoid and 5 as hold, with nothing rated a buy at any conviction level. Cash stands at, roughly half the book, and stays there until something worth owning appears. OPERATIONAL: empty buy pool, not a near-miss list. Zero BUY / BUY - ADD / STRONG BUY / BUY - ANTICIPATE across all 29 rows; ANTICIPATE slot empty for a 25th session. rows print NoTrade_Reason 'Consensus conflict + low conviction' - flagged as systemic finding 6. Highest non-sell labels for the record: VRSN cv75, LLYVK cv68, BAC cv64, LLYVA cv61, STZ cv55 - HOLD is not a buy label. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
136 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.086 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.