Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 90.08 | SELL 30% | 90.08 | 89.06 | 91.02 (+1.0%) | n/a | 102.81 (+14.1%) | Coca-Cola has been our best large-cap performer of the summer, up 7.1% and roughly 33% year to date on five straight earnings beats, raised 2026 guidance (~5% organic revenue growth, 9-10% comparable EPS growth) and a 64th consecutive year of dividend increases. We are banking 30% of the position and keeping the other 70%. The reason is not the business, which is performing; it is that the stock has gone quiet in our model for two straight sessions after a strong run, it trades on ~26x earnings and ~71x free cash flow, and our discipline says a large winner that stops signalling gets partially harvested rather than round-tripped. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed + fired, tick (d). Armed at Gain_ATR 3.92 (+7.06%, unrealised on an line). Fired on the SECOND consecutive NO TRADE cv0 print (08-25, 08-26) - flagged one session in advance in the 08-25 entry, so this is not a surprise card. Tick (c) does not fire (12wk vs the threshold). One tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -2.250 is short of the -3 bump line, so no tier escalation. Scorecard NoTrade|sell +0 (n=41, hit_1w.486, hit_4w.300 - the weakest actionable cell in the book, recorded against the card). Stop HELD on the retained (1.15% cushion); the ADR-0012 chandelier would loosen it and is refused. 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. · news |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 180.05 | SELL ALL | 180.05 | — | 177.11 (-1.6%) | n/a | 109.35 (-39.3%) | We are exiting DaVita in full at a 23% loss. This is the book's worst holding and the case for holding it has run out. The company beat on Q2 revenue (55bn, +5.2%) and adjusted EPS on 5 August and the shares still fell 9.8% that day, because dialysis treatment volumes have now been flat for two full years - the growth is coming from price, not patients - and analysts see revenue decelerating to ~2% over the next twelve months. Our model has moved from silence to its strongest sell reading of the session, and our own valuation work puts the shares far above what the current earnings power supports. A cheap-looking multiple on a business that is not growing is not a reason to keep losing money. OPERATIONAL: signal-based origination - STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv79, Sell_Rank 1, FailedBreakout_Down_20D, the book's best actionable cell (n=48, hit_1w.477 / hit_4w.409, bias +0). Late-flipped (NO TRADE x2 -> STRONG SELL). Position -23.35%, 12wk = -39.3%, the worst forward view in the book. Model printed 88.52%; escalated to a FULL EXIT under CLAUDE.md S9(b) valuation amplification - MoS_FV -3.376 is past the -3 line, which bumps the portion one tier (the rung), and the 301-share residual the printed portion would leave is a stub with no thesis. Trim-discipline gates G1-G3 do not apply (they govern profit-trims on uptrending names; this is a deeply underwater trend exit). No held-name sell veto exists in this book's learnings file. Position closed - stop retired. · news |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 252.80 | SELL 50% | 252.80 | 248.53 | 251.01 (-0.7%) | n/a | 257.83 (+2.0%) | Nucor has been a good holding - up 14.5% - on the back of a strong Q2 (net sales +23% to 4bn, EPS vs a year earlier) and analysts still carry a consensus target around roughly 15% above here. But the shares have been whipsawed by tariff headlines - a reported US-Canada deal halving steel tariffs knocked them back sharply - our model has gone silent on the name for four straight sessions, and its own twelve-week projection has flattened to essentially no upside. We are taking half the position off and letting the rest run with the stop in place. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed + fired, TWO ticks. Newly armed today at Gain_ATR 3.22 (it was below 3.0 on 08-25). Tick (d): FOUR consecutive NO TRADE cv0 prints (08-21, 08-24, 08-25, 08-26). Tick (c): dead forward view - 12wk vs the threshold, fired by / 0.01%. That margin is inside the printed 2dp rounding noise and is flagged as such, but the test is applied mechanically as written, exactly as the OXY tick (d) test was on 08-25; if the 12wk ticks up tomorrow this reverts to a one-tick 30% card. 2 ticks -> profit_take_2 = 50%. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -2.278 is short of -3, no further bump. Scorecard NoTrade|sell +0 (n=41, hit_4w.300). Stop HELD on the retained - the 08-25 breach is RESOLVED, close is 1.72% above. Peak stop stands, never chased down. 12wk exceeds the DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 313.45 | HOLD | 313.45 | 306.15 | n/a | n/a | 306.72 (-2.1%) | First non-NO-TRADE print in nine sessions: HOLD cv58 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D. +1.56% vs cost, 12wk = -2.1%. Stop HELD (2.38%); scan would loosen. Trim withdrawal stands. |
| AXP | American Express Co | 336.15 | HOLD - dormant sell case | 336.15 | 330.57 | n/a | n/a | 318.98 (-5.1%) | The dormant sell case persists and is now the book's #1 dollar exposure at / 11.6% of NAV. AVOID cv51 -> cv57 on FailedBreakout_Down_20D - firmer, but AVOID is not an actionable sell label. 12wk = -5.1%; close is 1.69% above the stop and above EMA200, so L2 cannot fire. Re-arms on any actionable sell label or a decisive close below. Scan stop sits ABOVE the close and was rejected (systemic finding 4). |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.23 | HOLD | 62.23 | 61.28 | n/a | n/a | 67.48 (+8.4%) | HOLD cv64 -> cv49; the four-print conviction climb has stalled. 12wk = +8.4%. Stop HELD (1.55%); scan would loosen. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 342.00 | HOLD | 342.00 | 333.68 | n/a | n/a | 306.00 (-10.5%) | 5th NO TRADE cv0 in six sessions. 12wk = -10.5%, but close is 2.49% above the stop so L2 cannot fire. GOOGL ex-dividend on 09-04 (parent horizon). Dormant. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 343.77 | HOLD | 343.77 | 341.96 | n/a | n/a | 330.82 (-3.8%) | AVOID cv57 (from NO TRADE cv0). 12wk = -3.8%. Close is only 0.53% above the stop - the second-tightest cushion in the book, flagged. Valuation now OVERVALUED_VS_RI, MoS -0.006. Scan stop is ABOVE the close and was rejected (systemic finding 4). Re-arms on a fresh sell label or a close below. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 514.55 | HOLD - stop raised | 514.55 | 493.86 | n/a | n/a | 567.75 (+10.3%) | AVOID cv53 -> HOLD cv73 on AnticipationUp_VCP with a Buy Stop printed at - but the Action is HOLD, not BUY - ANTICIPATE, so it does NOT qualify for the anticipate slot. RSI 67.8, 12wk = +10.3%. Stop RAISED -> (4.19% cushion). |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 24.79 | HOLD | 24.79 | 24.15 | n/a | n/a | 24.65 (-0.6%) | 5th consecutive NO TRADE cv0. 12wk vs close = -0.6%, essentially dead flat. 2.65% above the stop. Retirement stands. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 58.51 | HOLD - immaterial | 58.51 | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 51.44 (-12.1%) | 5th session since the sell labels decayed; NO TRADE cv0. 12wk = -12.1% but close is 6.63% above the stop. UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.033). Immaterial at. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 28.51 | HOLD | 28.51 | 27.81 | n/a | n/a | 26.18 (-8.2%) | 6th consecutive NO TRADE cv0. 12wk = -8.2%; close is 2.52% above the stop, breach long resolved. Carried. |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 83.08 | HOLD | 83.08 | 81.36 | n/a | n/a | 76.79 (-7.6%) | 6th consecutive NO TRADE cv0. 12wk = -7.6%; close is 2.11% above the stop. Worst live trail erosion in the book at -9.7% from the peak stop - inside ADR-0020's 15% line (and ADR-0020 is not enabled for this book). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 292.99 | HOLD - trail raised | 292.99 | 278.64 | n/a | n/a | 306.29 (+4.5%) | Armed at Gain_ATR 5.09 (+14.26%) on a 3rd consecutive HOLD, cv (an 8-point slip, short of tick (b)'s 20). 12wk is alive against the threshold, so tick (c) stays un-fired for a second session. Zero live ticks -> trail-raise. Stop RAISED -> (5.53% cushion) - a genuine tightening. Note FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell is now -5 actionable (n=5), so this recovering HOLD earns no extra credit. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 217.21 | HOLD | 217.21 | 208.23 | n/a | n/a | 237.09 (+9.2%) | NO TRADE cv0 -> HOLD cv57. 12wk = +9.1%. Stop HELD (4.31%); scan would loosen. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 68.42 | HOLD - dormant sell case | 68.42 | 64.15 | n/a | n/a | 53.11 (-22.4%) | AVOID cv57 -> cv49, still decaying from the cv76 Sell_Rank-1 peak it held for nine sessions. 12wk = -22.4%, the worst forward view left in the book after DVA exits. Close is 6.66% above the stop, so no L2. Immaterial at Scan stop is ABOVE the close and was rejected. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 42.54 | HOLD | 42.54 | 41.56 | n/a | n/a | 37.35 (-12.2%) | 6th consecutive NO TRADE cv0. 12wk = -12.2% and the position is -6.03%, but close is 2.36% above the stop - L2 needs both halves. Valuation UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.075). Re-arms on a close below. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 339.10 | HOLD - trim carried | 339.10 | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 300.47 (-11.4%) | 6th consecutive NO TRADE cv0; the Class C 50% trim idea stays carried, unexecutable without a label. 12wk = -11.4%; close is 5.90% above the stop. |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 105.74 | HOLD | 105.74 | 103.21 | n/a | n/a | 111.30 (+5.3%) | HOLD cv68 -> NO TRADE cv0. Valuation NA (negative EPV) -> val_adj 0. 2.45% above the stop. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 87.15 | HOLD - immaterial | 87.15 | 82.64 | n/a | n/a | 82.28 (-5.6%) | NO TRADE cv0 -> HOLD cv55. residual. Stop HELD; scan would loosen. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 101.84 | HOLD | 101.84 | 99.29 | n/a | n/a | 106.68 (+4.8%) | HOLD cv61 -> NO TRADE cv0. Valuation NA -> val_adj 0. 2.57% above the stop. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 134.45 | HOLD - stop raised | 134.45 | 128.36 | n/a | n/a | 122.08 (-9.2%) | HOLD cv55 -> cv60 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D. Immaterial at Stop RAISED ->. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6368.12 | HOLD - immaterial | 6368.12 | 6088.57 | n/a | n/a | 5990.11 (-5.9%) | NO TRADE cv0 -> HOLD cv62. 3-share residual worth Stop HELD (4.59%); scan would loosen. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 22.82 | HOLD - immaterial | 22.82 | 22.49 | n/a | n/a | 20.88 (-8.5%) | 6th consecutive NO TRADE cv0. residual, 1.47% above the stop. Peak stop. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 85.61 | HOLD - immaterial | 85.61 | 81.78 | n/a | n/a | 81.75 (-4.5%) | NO TRADE cv0 -> HOLD cv52. residual. Stop HELD; scan would loosen. |
| — | Acquire pool | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No purchases today, for the fourth session running. The model is not flagging a single buy candidate anywhere in this 29-name universe - 12 names read as no-trade, 5 as avoid and 11 as hold, with nothing rated a buy at any conviction level, so there is nothing to rank and no near-miss list. Cash stands at, roughly half the book, and today's three sales add a further. OPERATIONAL: buy pool empty (zero STRONG BUY / BUY / BUY - ADD / BUY - ANTICIPATE rows). ANTICIPATE slot EMPTY for a 26th session - MCO prints AnticipationUp_VCP with a Buy Stop at but its Action is HOLD, not BUY - ANTICIPATE, so it is not eligible. Highest-conviction non-sell labels for the record: MCO cv73, CVX cv69, VRSN cv67, OXY cv62, NVR cv62. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
138 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.086 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.