Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AXP | American Express Co | 329.98 | SELL 88.52% | 329.98 | 317.84 | n/a | n/a | 299.57 (-9.2%) | Selling most of the American Express stake. The shares have broken decisively below their 200-day trend line while the model's three-month projection points ~9% lower, and the position is already 6% under cost — the trend has turned and we are respecting the risk line rather than hoping for a bounce. Analysts remain constructive (consensus target near) and that is the case for the we keep, not for the ~30,700 we sell. OPERATIONAL: second consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE, and this print is on FailedBreakout_Down_20D whose cell is +0 (n=49, hit.51, ACTIONABLE) — so unlike the 09-01 card (RallySell_BearTrend, -8, adj 55) this one CLEARS the 65 floor on the label alone at adj 75. Independent CLAUDE.md section-9 basis unchanged: close below EMA200 with 12wk = -9.22%. Sell_Rank #1. Carried from the 09-01 card at (never executed — executor blocked); repriced UP to, so the delay gained +1.79% / on the. MoS -0.428 is nowhere near the -3 tier bump and this is not UNDERVALUED, so valuation neither amplifies nor de-amplifies: portion stays at the scan's 88.52%. 1wk/4wk n/a — the STRONG SELL row prints no Target_Price; scan near-term band -. Q3 earnings 23-Oct, outside the window. WORK THE PRINT: is ~10% of NAV, use VWAP/participation over the session, not one market order. Residual stop re-based to the scan's on the retained. · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 339.42 | SELL 50% | — | 327.02 | n/a | n/a | 317.42 | Halving the Chubb position. The stock has spent six sessions below the risk line that triggered the original exit on 27 August, the model has printed no tradable signal for five sessions running, and the three-month projection is ~6% lower. But fresh valuation work now marks it essentially at fair value, and a September broker note calls it a high-quality franchise that is simply fully priced — so we take the minimum cut that respects the broken risk line rather than dumping a good business cheap. OPERATIONAL: L2 carry, third repricing. The basis is the un-repaired pre-cut line (the exit was approved 08-27 and never executed, so the pre-cut line still governs); close is / -0.53 ATR below it. Against the post-cut re-based stop there is no break — stated openly. VALUATION DE-AMPLIFY APPLIED: Val_Signal flipped to UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.0046, from -0.006 on 09-01), and CLAUDE.md section 9 / Step-6(b) says an UNDERVALUED name's trim argues DOWN one tier — so the scan's 88.52% is scaled to 50% (, instead of). This is also the honest read of a weakening basis: the close has risen three sessions running (338.60 -> 338.74 -> 339.42) and the gap to the line has narrowed from -0.65 to -0.53 ATR. CANCEL CONDITION: if CB opens above the risk line is repaired and this card is void. 1wk/4wk n/a (NoTrade row, no Target_Price); band -. Ex-dividend on 11-Sep, 6 sessions out and immaterial. Residual stop held on the retained. · news |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 78.14 | SELL ALL | — | 81.36⚠ | n/a | n/a | 62.87 | Closing the Delta position in full. It is the deepest broken stop in the book — the shares are ~4% below the stop we set, 16% under cost, and the model's three-month projection is ~20% lower. Delta's own guidance is genuinely good (full-year earnings growth ~20%, -4bn of free cash flow affirmed) and the valuation work says the business is worth well more than the share price, but a fundamentally cheap stock that keeps falling through its risk line is still a losing position, and we sell on the risk line, not the story. This is the fourth time this exit has been recommended; it does not get deferred again. OPERATIONAL: L2 fires cleanly — close vs recorded stop = -3.96% / -1.30 ATR, with 12wk = -19.54%. Six consecutive NoTrade cv0. Position -15.75% (-unrealised). Full exit not a trim: the skill reserves 100% for a decisive stop break and there is no bullish element left to retain. Valuation explicitly does NOT veto: FAIR_VALUE, Quality_Pass True, Bargain True, DCF = 50% above the close — CLAUDE.md section 9 bars valuation from vetoing a risk exit, so this is a technical exit against a cheap-looking name and is recorded as such. No tier change (FAIR_VALUE, not UNDERVALUED). Carried from 08-28 and 09-01; repriced to — the delay since 09-01 gained +2.30% but has cost -2.41% versus 08-28. 1wk/4wk n/a (NoTrade row); band -. ADR-0020 trail erosion 9.74% (stop vs peak), under the 15% bar — this exit is purely signal-based. Next earnings October, outside the window. Stop retired on fill. · news |
| — | (no acquisition) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No purchases today. Not one of the 29 names in this book produced a buy signal — the seventh session in a row — so there is nothing to buy at a price the model endorses. Cash stays on the sidelines. OPERATIONAL: zero bullish actionable Actions (STRONG BUY / BUY / *-ADD) in the anchor snapshot; ANTICIPATE slot also empty (no BUY - ANTICIPATE label anywhere, so the >=2-of-3 eligibility test cannot be met). Nearest misses are all HOLD labels, not buy labels: AAPL cv77 AnticipationUp_VCP (val_adj -10 on MoS -2.973 -> adj 67; Apple event 09-09), KHC cv75 (adj 71), CVX cv73 but RSI 71.5 fails no-chase, VRSN cv69, COF cv65. KR is the only UNDERVALUED + Quality_Pass name in the book (MoS +0.037) but prints NoTrade cv0 with a -11.3% 12wk — cheap without a trigger. (49.7% of NAV) untouched; cash rises to 63.2% after tonight's sells. See systemic finding 5. |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 102.51 | NO ACTION | — | 103.21⚠ | n/a | n/a | 100.45 | Not acted on today — a marginal stop graze on a name whose three-month view is only slightly negative, and it lost the slot to three larger and much clearer exits. OPERATIONAL: close vs stop = -0.68% / -0.29 ATR — a graze, not the -1.30 ATR break DAL prints. 12wk = -2.01%, far short of the conviction AXP (-9.2%) or DAL (-19.5%) carry. Second consecutive NoTrade cv0. Valuation is NA (negative), so no amplification is available. Ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the deferral. Stop held. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 98.76 | NO ACTION | — | 99.29⚠ | n/a | n/a | 96.23 | Not acted on today — same read as the Series C line, on a smaller stake. OPERATIONAL: close vs stop = -0.53% / -0.22 ATR graze; 12wk = -2.56%; second consecutive NoTrade cv0; valuation NA. Ledgered optional. Stop held. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 22.42 | NO ACTION | — | 22.49⚠ | n/a | n/a | 19.18 | Not acted on today — the exit case is textbook but the position is, 0.013% of the book, and spending a scarce slot here instead of on a position would be poor allocation. OPERATIONAL: close vs stop = -0.31% graze with 12wk = -14.45%; second consecutive NoTrade cv0. EARNINGS 10-SEP, inside the window on the next run — clear this before the print. FAIR_VALUE / Bargain True argues the minimum, but 100% is already the scan portion on a full-exit basis. Ledgered optional. Stop held. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6326.95 | NO ACTION | 6326.95 | 6088.57 | n/a | n/a | 5864.34 (-7.3%) | Not acted on today — the sell label comes from the least reliable signal family in this book and the position is. OPERATIONAL: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv69 but RallySell_BearTrend|sell is -8 (n=13, hit.083, ACTIONABLE) -> adj 61, BELOW the 65 floor. A section-9 basis does exist (close below EMA200 with 12wk -7.31%), which is why it is ledgered rather than dismissed, but does not justify a slot. Stop held. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 83.58 | NO ACTION | 83.58 | 82.64 | n/a | n/a | 73.45 (-12.1%) | Not acted on today — the signal clears the bar but the position is. OPERATIONAL: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv69 on the +0 FailedBreakout_Down_20D cell -> adj 69 CLEARS the floor, and the section-9 basis is clean (close vs EMA200, 12wk = -12.12%). Lost purely on dollar bleed. The scan again printed Stop_Price which is BELOW the close this session (last session it printed, above the close) — see systemic finding 3. Recorded stop held. Ledgered optional. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 82.15 | NO ACTION | 82.15 | 81.78 | n/a | n/a | 72.89 (-11.3%) | Not acted on today — same read as the Class A line; the position is OPERATIONAL: STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv68 on the +0 cell -> adj 68 clears the floor; close below EMA200 with 12wk = -11.27%. Immaterial size. Stop held. Ledgered optional. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 129.35 | NO ACTION | 129.35 | 128.36 | n/a | n/a | 110.80 (-14.3%) | Not acted on today — the label fails the conviction bar after the signal-family haircut and the position is. OPERATIONAL: third STRONG SELL - REDUCE in four sessions, cv65, but RallySell_BearTrend|sell is -8 -> adj 57, below the floor. Close is still 0.77% ABOVE the stop, so there is no independent risk-line break; the only section-9 leg is EMA200 plus 12wk -14.34%. Quality_Pass False. RE-ARM: a decisive close below makes it a firm exit. Stop held. Ledgered optional. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 324.96 | HOLD - trail raised | 328.04 | 313.25 | n/a | 372.40 (+13.5%) | 336.63 (+2.6%) | Holding Apple and raising the stop. It is the book's healthiest large position — up 5% on cost with the three-month projection still climbing — and there is no deterioration signal, so we protect the gain with a tighter stop rather than selling any of it. OPERATIONAL: armed (T12_Progress 96.53 on a +5.29% gain, Gain_ATR 2.21) but ZERO ADR-0012 ticks fired — (a) only PROFIT_ARMED prints; (b) conviction is -6, short of 20; (c) 12wk > 1.02 x close and RISING for a second session; (d) no NoTrade. Armed-without-a-tick = mandatory trail-raise. The name prints an AnticipationUp_VCP buy-stop at (Entry_Distance_ATR +0.42, i.e. NOT extended) but the Action is HOLD, so it is not in the buy pool; as a hypothetical buy the MoS -2.973 haircut (val_adj -10) would leave adj 67. Apple event 09-09, inside the window on the next run — catalyst-aware hold applies, do not pre-trim into it. TRAIL RAISED -> (scan chandelier). |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 211.78 | HOLD - trail raised | 211.48 | 203.41 | n/a | 235.70 (+11.5%) | 246.67 (+16.6%) | Holding Chevron and raising the stop. The best-performing position in the book, up 25%, with conviction improving and a three-month projection ~16% higher. It is overbought on a short-term basis, so we neither add nor trim — we just move the stop up under it. OPERATIONAL: armed on Gain_ATR 10.55; zero ticks — (b) conviction is UP; (c) 12wk far above 1.02 x close; (a)/(d) clear. G3 forward-view gate would block a trim regardless. RSI 71.5 with Entry_Distance_ATR -0.07 fails the no-chase bar, so no add either even if a buy label appeared. Quality_Pass False would block a NEW entry (never an ADD). TRAIL RAISED ->. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 60.91 | HOLD - trail raised | 60.91 | 58.17 | n/a | 63.65 (+4.5%) | 68.51 (+12.5%) | Holding Occidental and raising the stop. Up 25% on cost with the three-month projection still improving; conviction eased but not enough to signal deterioration. Stop moves up. OPERATIONAL: armed on Gain_ATR 8.76; zero ticks — (b) conviction is -13, short of the 20-pt bar; (c) 12wk = +12.5% vs close; (a)/(d) clear. Signal family FailedBreakdown_Up_20D carries a -6 sell cell (n=5, ACTIONABLE). TRAIL RAISED ->. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 88.24 | HOLD - trail | 88.24 | 85.90 | n/a | 91.07 (+3.2%) | 95.31 (+8.0%) | Holding Coca-Cola. Back above the stop we re-based on 01-September, up ~5% on cost, and it still carries the best three-month projection in the book at roughly +8%. Nothing to do. OPERATIONAL: the 09-01 breach is repaired — close is 2.72% above the re-based trail. Armed (T12_Progress 92.58, +4.87%, Gain_ATR 2.90); zero ticks — (b) is -3; (c) 12wk >> 1.02 x close; (a)/(d) clear. peak_stop retained at, ADR-0020 erosion 3.55%, well under the 15% bar. Stop held (scan chandelier is lower). Ex-dividend 15-Sep. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.60 | HOLD | 62.60 | 61.28 | n/a | n/a | 66.02 (+5.5%) | Holding Bank of America. Up 4% on cost with a positive three-month projection; the model's AVOID tag is a no-new-entry tag, not a sell instruction, and there is no reason to reduce. OPERATIONAL: AVOID cv64 — AVOID is not in the sell pool and this is a long-only book. Armed (T12_Progress 94.82, +4.11%) but zero ticks: (b) is a recovery from NoTrade, not a collapse; (c) 12wk = +5.5%; (a)/(d) clear. The scan printed Stop_Price — ABOVE the close, an instant synthetic breach on a long — REJECTED by hand for the eighth consecutive session (systemic finding 3). Recorded stop held; close is only 2.15% above it, the tightest large hold in the book. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 337.12 | HOLD - exit armed | — | 333.68 | n/a | n/a | 292.42 | Holding Alphabet, but this is the position closest to an exit. The shares are 6% under cost with a sharply negative three-month projection, and the news is a genuine concern — an AI leadership exodus including Jeff Dean, a delayed next-generation Gemini model, and the stock down 6% in a month against a rising market. It is still above our stop, so we hold; a close below it makes this a firm sale. OPERATIONAL: PRIMARY RE-ARM TRIGGER for the book. Close is +1.03% above stop and +2.94% above EMA200, so neither the L2 leg nor the EMA200 leg fires yet. The 09-01 STRONG SELL cv63 has reverted to NoTrade cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'). NOT armed (position -6.33%; the PROFIT_ARMED print is the systemic-finding-2 artifact). 12wk = -13.26%. Ex-dividend on 04-Sep. Counterweight: Berkshire has made Alphabet its third-largest holding and Q2 cloud revenue grew 82%. A DECISIVE CLOSE BELOW = firm exit next run. Stop held. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 333.78 | HOLD - exit armed | — | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 286.15 | Holding the small Class C line on the same read as the Class A. Above its stop, so no action, but it exits with the A shares if the trigger fires. OPERATIONAL: the 09-01 STRONG SELL cv63 reverted to NoTrade cv0. Close is +4.24% above stop. 12wk = -14.27%. Position -6.29%, NOT armed. Stop held. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 179.39 | HOLD | — | 169.18 | n/a | n/a | 112.31 | Holding DaVita on its stop. It is the worst position in the book at 24% under cost with a severe three-month projection, but the shares bounced this session and remain above the stop, and the model has printed no sell signal since the one that appeared and evaporated on 27 August. We do not chase an un-fired signal. OPERATIONAL: sixth consecutive NoTrade cv0. NOT armed (-23.63% / -12.20 ATR; T12_Progress 159.73 is the degenerate-ratio artifact). MoS -3.415 is the most extreme in the book and would carry a tier bump, but valuation cannot ORIGINATE a sell (CLAUDE.md section 9) and there is no Exit_Warning code to elevate. Close is 2.29% above EMA200 and 6.04% above the stop — more room than on 09-01. Stop held. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 216.60 | HOLD | 216.60 | 208.23 | n/a | 227.75 (+5.1%) | 227.85 (+5.2%) | Holding Capital One. Recovered strongly this session, up 6% on cost with a positive three-month projection and rising conviction. No action. OPERATIONAL: armed (T12_Progress 95.06, +5.60%) but zero ticks — (b) conviction is UP; (c) 12wk = +5.2%; (a)/(d) clear. The 09-01 withdrawal of the 30% trim is confirmed correct: +2.49% since. Stop held (scan chandelier is lower). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 289.96 | HOLD | 289.96 | 280.81 | n/a | 304.42 (+5.0%) | 302.87 (+4.5%) | Holding VeriSign. Up 13% on cost, stable conviction, positive three-month projection. Nothing to do. OPERATIONAL: armed on Gain_ATR 4.64; zero ticks — conviction flat at 69, 12wk > 1.02 x close, no second warning code, no NoTrade run. Stop held (scan is lower). |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 67.68 | HOLD | 67.68 | 64.15 | n/a | n/a | 54.48 (-19.5%) | Holding the New York Times stake. Weak — 8% under cost with a poor three-month projection — but it is still above its stop and the model's AVOID tag is a no-new-entry tag, not a sell. OPERATIONAL: AVOID cv42, conviction falling. Close is 5.50% above the stop but 4.31% BELOW EMA200, and 12wk = -19.50% — so an L2 fires quickly if goes. Watch. The scan printed Stop_Price against a close, above the market again — REJECTED (systemic finding 3). FAIR_VALUE / Quality_Pass True. Recorded stop held. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 42.66 | HOLD | — | 41.56 | n/a | n/a | 36.95 | Holding Ally Financial. It screens as one of the cheapest names in the book but the model has been silent on it for six sessions and it is 6% under cost — cheap is not a buy signal without a trigger. Just above its stop, so we wait. OPERATIONAL: sixth consecutive NoTrade cv0. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.074 but Quality_Pass FALSE, so a new entry would be blocked by the quality gate anyway (ADDs to held names are never blocked). NOT armed (-5.77%). 12wk = -13.39%; close is 2.65% above the trail and now marginally ABOVE EMA200 — improved from 09-01. Stop held. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 58.22 | HOLD | — | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 51.63 | Holding the small Kroger stake, flat on cost and quiet from the model. No action. OPERATIONAL: fourth consecutive NoTrade cv0. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.037 with Quality_Pass True and Bargain True — the ONLY name in the book that both screens cheap and passes quality, so it is the first place to look if a buy signal ever appears here. But close is 7.9% below EMA200 and 12wk = -11.32%, so the technical picture does not support acting on the valuation. Stop held. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
152 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.086 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.