Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AXP | American Express Co | 329.82 | SELL 88.52% | 329.82 | 317.92 | n/a | n/a | 298.31 (-9.6%) | Cutting 89% of American Express. The shares have now closed below their 200-day trend line for a third straight session with the model's 12-week view at — roughly 10% below today's price — and the sell signal has been stable for three days running. On the valuation side Amex screens rich against its own returns-on-equity anchor and fails our balance-sheet quality screen, so nothing in the fundamentals argues for holding the full position through a broken trend. Analysts are still constructive on premium-card growth and credit quality, which is the case for keeping a residual stake rather than exiting outright. OPERATIONAL: 3rd consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE (cv -> 69). Close vs EMA200 (-0.65%); 12wk = -9.55%; RSI 42.7; position -6.29% on cost. Signal cell FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell = +0 (n=50, hit.51, ACTIONABLE) so adj 69 clears the 65 floor on the label alone. MoS -0.428 is nowhere near the -3 tier bump; val_adj 0, size x1.0, portion unchanged at the scan's 88.52%. Carried from the 09-01 and 09-02 cards (never executed - executor blocker), repriced from to (-0.05%). WORK THE ORDER: is ~10% of NAV - VWAP/participation across the session, not one market print. Residual on a stop. · news |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 78.75 | SELL ALL | 78.75 | 81.36⚠ | n/a | n/a | 62.54 (-20.6%) | Closing the Delta position entirely. The stock has traded below our risk line for six weeks, sits 15% underwater on cost, and the model's 12-week view of is more than 20% below today's price - the deepest negative forward read in the book. Delta's own fundamentals are genuinely good (full-year guidance affirmed, -4bn of free cash flow, a 15% dividend raise, premium revenue up 17%) and the discounted-cash-flow work says the shares are cheap. But a cheap stock that keeps falling through its stop is still a losing position, and valuation is not allowed to veto a risk exit. Taking the loss and freeing the capital. OPERATIONAL: 4th consecutive NoTrade cv0; close vs recorded stop = -3.21% / -1.22 ATR; RSI 37.2; -15.09% on cost. L2 basis (decisive stop break + negative 12wk); L3 says execute, do not re-litigate - this card has been open since 08-28 and unexecuted only because of the executor blocker, so it is repriced ( ->, +0.78%), not re-argued. DCF is 49% ABOVE the close and Quality_Pass is True - CLAUDE.md section 9 bars valuation from vetoing a risk exit. ADR-0020: stop vs peak = 9.74% erosion, below the 15% bar, so this is purely signal-based. Position closes; stop retired. · news |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 101.30 | SELL 88.52% | 101.30 | 98.69 | n/a | n/a | 97.22 (-4.0%) | Cutting 89% of Liberty Live Series C. The stock has been below our stop for three straight sessions and the break is widening, not healing - it has gone from a graze to nearly three-quarters of a daily range below the line while the 12-week view has deteriorated from -2% to -4%. The underlying business gives no reason to stand in the way: Liberty Live reported a net loss for the June quarter and for the first half, and the holding has negative so our valuation framework cannot even produce a fair-value anchor. This was deferred on position-size grounds for two sessions; with the Chubb and SiriusXM cards cleared there is now a slot, and a deteriorating break should not be deferred a third time. OPERATIONAL: 3rd consecutive NoTrade cv0; close vs stop = -1.85% / -0.73 ATR (deepened from -0.29 ATR on 09-02); 12wk = -4.03%; -5.50% on cost. L2 basis; L3 anti-deferral. Valuation NA (negative equity) so no amplify/de-amplify available - technical-only card. Sibling LLYVA (, -0.67 ATR, 12wk -4.44%) has the identical basis and lost the 4th slot on size alone - it is FIRST in the 09-04 queue. Residual; stop re-based to (close - 1.0 ATR) since the NoTrade row prints no Stop_Price. · news |
| — | No acquisition | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No purchases today. Not one of the 29 names in this book produced a buy signal, so there is nothing to buy at a price the model endorses - the eighth consecutive session with an empty buy list. Cash stays on the sidelines. OPERATIONAL: zero bullish actionable Actions (STRONG BUY / BUY / *-ADD) across the universe; no BUY - ANTICIPATE label anywhere, so the anticipate slot cannot meet its 2-of-3 eligibility test either. Closest technical setup is AAPL - AnticipationUp_VCP cv88, buy-stop, Entry_Distance_ATR +0.13 (below the trigger, not extended) - but the Action prints HOLD and valuation is punitive (MoS -2.973 -> val_adj -10, adj 78). (49.5% of NAV) untouched; cash rises to ~60.6% after tonight's disposals. See systemic finding 5. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 97.71 | NO ACTION | 97.71 | 99.29⚠ | n/a | n/a | 93.37 (-4.4%) | Liberty Live Series A has the same broken-stop case as its Series C sibling and lost the slot purely on size - versus. It is first in tomorrow's queue. OPERATIONAL: 3rd NoTrade cv0; close vs stop = -1.59% / -0.67 ATR (deepened from -0.22 ATR); 12wk = -4.44%; -5.98% on cost. Valuation NA (negative). Stop held as the exit trigger. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6373.95 | NO ACTION | 6373.95 | 6105.18 | n/a | n/a | 5949.83 (-6.7%) | NVR prints a clean sell signal that clears our conviction bar and trades below its 200-day trend with a negative 12-week view - but the whole position is three shares worth, so it cannot justify one of three daily slots. OPERATIONAL: 3rd consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE -> 75); the label migrated OFF the RallySell_BearTrend -8 cell onto FailedBreakout_Down_20D (+0), so adj 75 now clears the floor cleanly (it failed at adj 61 on 09-02). Close vs EMA200 = -5.25%; 12wk -6.66%. Proceeds only Stop raised ->. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 43.59 | NO ACTION | 43.59 | 41.63 | n/a | n/a | 38.59 (-11.5%) | Ally flipped to a sell signal for the first time in four sessions, but on a day the stock ROSE 2.2%, with no break of our risk line and with the shares screening cheap on our own valuation work. Selling a rising, undervalued name on a single day's signal print is exactly the pattern that cost this book money on SiriusXM, so the trim is halved and deferred behind larger, better-founded exits. A reported outage of Ally's bank site and app on 01-Sep is a genuine but minor negative; guidance still assumes a September Fed hike, which would help the margin. OPERATIONAL: first print after NoTrade x3 - late-flipped, not stable. Close is +4.9% above the stop and +2.3% above EMA200; only bearish leg is 12wk = -11.5%. UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.074) triggers the section-9(b) DE-AMPLIFY: 88.52% -> 50%, ->. Quality_Pass False. Stop raised ->. Promote if a second consecutive sell print arrives or breaks. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Class A | 84.45 | NO ACTION | 84.45 | 82.64 | n/a | n/a | 74.39 (-11.9%) | Lennar clears the conviction bar on a stable sell signal and trades 12% below its 200-day trend with a negative 12-week view, but the stake is - - and loses the slot on size alone. OPERATIONAL: cv, FailedBreakout_Down_20D (+0 cell), adj 75. Close vs EMA200 = -12.1%; 12wk = -11.9%. Proceeds Stop held (scan's is lower). |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Class B | 82.84 | NO ACTION | 82.84 | 81.78 | n/a | n/a | 73.59 (-11.2%) | Lennar Class B carries the book's highest sell conviction tonight and the same broken long-term trend as the A shares, on a nine-share position worth Ledgered, not slotted. OPERATIONAL: cv, Sell_Rank #1, FailedBreakout_Down_20D (+0), adj 76. Close vs EMA200 = -10.6%; 12wk -11.2%. Proceeds Stop held. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Inc | 129.09 | NO ACTION | 129.09 | 128.36 | n/a | n/a | 109.23 (-15.4%) | Constellation Brands shows a sell label for a third session, but it comes from the least reliable signal family we track - one that has been right roughly one time in twelve at a one-week horizon - and after that penalty the conviction no longer clears our bar. The shares are also still fractionally above our stop, so there is no independent risk-line case. No action. OPERATIONAL: cv65 on RallySell_BearTrend, cell bias -8 (n=13, hit.083, ACTIONABLE) -> adj 57, FAILS the 65 floor. Close is +0.57% ABOVE the stop; a section-9 EMA200 leg does exist (EMA200, 12wk = -15.4%) which is why this is ledgered rather than dismissed. Position RE-ARM below. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 22.47 | NO ACTION | 22.47 | 22.49⚠ | n/a | n/a | 19.15 (-14.8%) | Macy's reports second-quarter results on 10-Sep, four trading days away, and our own rule is to hold a position through a catalyst that close unless there is a decisive break of the risk line. The stock is two cents below our stop - a graze, not a break - and the setup into the print is mildly positive (consensus EPS on 82bn of revenue, with an earnings-surprise indicator pointing to a beat). Holding the stake through the report. OPERATIONAL: this REVERSES the 09-02 note that said clear it before the print - the catalyst-aware hold rule (skill Step 6) governs: trim into a <=5-session catalyst only on a confirmed lower-high or a decisive stop break. Close vs stop = -0.09% / -0.03 ATR. 3rd NoTrade cv0; 12wk = -14.8%. Ex-dividend on 15-Sep. Stop held; reassess on the 10-Sep print. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 328.21 | HOLD | 329.13 | 314.62 | n/a | 372.66 (+13.2%) | 344.99 (+4.8%) | Apple is the strongest technical setup in the book - conviction rose again to 88 and the stock sits just below a buy trigger without being extended - but the model still labels it a hold, and on our valuation work it is priced well beyond any defensible anchor, so we are not adding. The position is up 6.3% and close to its 12-week objective; we are raising the trailing stop rather than trimming, because the forward view is still rising and there is a product event on 09-Sep. OPERATIONAL: HOLD x4, cv. Buy-stop, Entry_Distance_ATR +0.13 (not extended). MoS -2.973 -> val_adj -10, adj 78; Quality_Pass True. PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress 95.14 with +6.34%; ticks: (b) conviction UP, (c) 12wk > 1.02 x close, (d) no NoTrade run, (a) no other warning code - zero ticks fired, so mandatory trail-raise, not a trim (ADR-0012). Trail RAISED ->. 12wk = +5.11%; exceeds DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond priced-in. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 211.32 | HOLD | 211.32 | 204.05 | n/a | 218.59 (+3.4%) | 247.83 (+17.3%) | Chevron is the book's best position, up 25%, and the 12-week view remains strongly positive at. Conviction slipped 19 points this session - one point short of the level that would trigger a profit-take - so the discipline is to tighten the trailing stop and keep riding it, not to cut a winner into a rising forward view. OPERATIONAL: HOLD x3 after a BUY-ADD on 09-01; cv = -19, JUST under the 20-pt tick (b) bar - state it plainly, this is the marginal case. (c) 12wk > 1.02 x un-fired; no other warning code. PROFIT_ARMED via Gain_ATR 11.59. Zero ticks -> trail-raise. Trail RAISED ->. RSI 70.4 would fail the no-chase bar for any add; Quality_Pass False also blocks a new entry. 12wk +17.28%. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 88.81 | HOLD | 88.81 | 86.11 | n/a | 91.51 (+3.0%) | 95.05 (+7.0%) | Coca-Cola carries the best forward view in the book at +7% over twelve weeks and conviction improved again. The stop breach flagged on 01-Sep is now decisively repaired. Holding with a higher trailing stop. OPERATIONAL: HOLD x4, cv. Close is +3.4% above the re-based trail; the 01-Sep judgment call to re-base rather than exit continues to be vindicated (would have sold at). PROFIT_ARMED via Gain_ATR 3.46 / T12_Progress 93.44, +5.55% on cost; ticks: (b) conviction UP, (c) 12wk > 1.02 x close - zero fired. Trail RAISED ->. MoS -2.130 -> val_adj -10, adj 55 - no add. 12wk +7.03%; exceeds DCF anchor. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 220.50 | HOLD | 220.50 | 210.18 | n/a | 230.82 (+4.7%) | 233.48 (+5.9%) | Capital One's conviction has climbed for three straight sessions to 75 and the position is up 7.5% with a positive 12-week view. Nothing here argues for selling; the trailing stop moves up. OPERATIONAL: HOLD x3, cv -> 75. PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress 94.44 with +7.50%; ticks: (b) conviction UP, (c) 12wk > 1.02 x - zero fired. Trail RAISED ->. MoS -0.321 -> val_adj -2, adj 73 - clears the floor on paper but the Action is HOLD, so it is not in the buy pool. 12wk +5.89%. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 60.61 | HOLD | 60.61 | 58.18 | n/a | 63.04 (+4.0%) | 67.88 (+12.0%) | Occidental is up 24% with a positive 12-week view and improving conviction. Trailing stop raised, no trim. OPERATIONAL: HOLD x4, cv. PROFIT_ARMED via Gain_ATR 9.64; ticks: (b) UP, (c) 12wk > 1.02 x - zero fired. Trail RAISED ->. 12wk +12.00%. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 293.35 | HOLD | 293.35 | 280.81 | n/a | 307.78 (+4.9%) | 307.97 (+5.0%) | VeriSign keeps strengthening - conviction up to 75, position up 14.4%, forward view positive. Held stop stands above the model's own suggestion, so no change. OPERATIONAL: HOLD x3, cv. PROFIT_ARMED via Gain_ATR 5.12; ticks: (b) UP, (c) 12wk > 1.02 x (marginal, +0.24%) - zero fired. Stop HELD (scan's is lower). MoS -2.271 -> val_adj -10, adj 65 - at the floor, but HOLD label, not a buy. 12wk +4.98%. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 262.47 | HOLD | 262.47 | 248.53 | n/a | 279.32 (+6.4%) | 276.80 (+5.5%) | Nucor recovered further - conviction up 14 points, position up 18.9%, forward view still positive. The sell label that appeared on 09-01 has fully un-fired. Holding. OPERATIONAL: HOLD x2 after STRONG SELL on 09-01; cv. PROFIT_ARMED via Gain_ATR 4.95; ticks: (b) UP, (c) 12wk > 1.02 x un-fired - zero fired -> trail. Stop HELD (scan's is lower). 12wk +5.46%. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 504.30 | HOLD | 504.30 | 493.86 | n/a | 529.10 (+4.9%) | 533.33 (+5.8%) | Moody's rallied 2.9% and the stop breach flagged on 09-02 is now repaired - the shares closed 2.1% above our line. Conviction is improving and the 12-week view is positive. Holding. OPERATIONAL: HOLD x2, cv. Close vs stop = +2.11% (breach REPAIRED). PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress 94.56 with +3.22%; ticks: (b) UP, (c) 12wk > 1.02 x close, (d) no NoTrade run - zero fired. Stop HELD; the scan chandelier would abandon the line. 12wk +5.76%. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 25.42 | HOLD | — | 24.87 | n/a | n/a | 25.93 | Kraft Heinz went quiet again - the model has no read on it. The position is essentially flat on cost, so there is nothing to protect and nothing to act on. Holding on the stop. OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv75 -> NO TRADE cv0 ('Consensus conflict + low conviction'). PROFIT_ARMED prints via T12_Progress 98.03 on a +0.20% position with Gain_ATR 0.07 - that is the broken T12 arm (systemic finding 2), NOT a real winner, so no profit-take is entertained. Tick (c) is within of firing (12wk vs 1.02 x close) and tick (b) is a cv0 print, which this book does not read as a conviction collapse. Stop held. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 63.04 | HOLD | — | 61.28 | n/a | n/a | 66.54 | Bank of America is up 4.8% with a positive 12-week view; the model alternates between no-read and avoid without ever producing a sell. Holding on the stop. OPERATIONAL: AVOID -> NO TRADE cv0, no two consecutive NoTrade prints so tick (d) does not fire; (c) 12wk > 1.02 x un-fired. PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress 94.74 with +4.84% - armed, zero ticks, trail-only. No scan Stop_Price on a NoTrade row; stop held (close is +2.87% above it). The scan's bearish-row stop for this name has printed ABOVE the close for nine sessions - see systemic finding 3. 12wk +5.55%. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Class A | 342.48 | HOLD | — | 333.68 | n/a | n/a | 299.79 | Alphabet bounced 1.6% and has pulled clear of the stop that made it the book's primary exit trigger a session ago - it now sits 2.6% above the line and 4.6% above its 200-day trend. The forward view is still the weakest part of the case, so this remains a watch rather than a buy. The shares went ex-dividend today. OPERATIONAL: 2nd consecutive NoTrade cv0 after one STRONG SELL print. Close vs stop = +2.64% (was +1.03% on 09-02); vs EMA200 = +4.63%. 12wk = -12.47%. A decisive close below still makes this a firm exit; GOOG exits with it. Ex-dividend 04-Sep per the parent event horizon. Stop held. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Class C | 339.08 | HOLD | — | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 293.39 | Alphabet Class C tracks the A shares - recovered above the stop, forward view still negative. Holding. OPERATIONAL: 2nd NoTrade cv0; close vs stop = +5.90%; 12wk = -13.47%. Exits with GOOGL on a decisive break of on the A line. Stop held. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 181.66 | HOLD | — | 169.18 | n/a | n/a | 119.01 | DaVita remains the worst position in the book at -22.7% with a deeply negative 12-week view, but it has recovered further and now sits 7.4% above our stop with no active sell signal. Valuation is extreme but our rules do not let valuation alone originate a sale. Holding on the stop. OPERATIONAL: 4th consecutive NoTrade cv0; close vs stop = +7.38%; vs EMA200 = +3.67%. 12wk = -34.5%. MoS -3.415 is the most extreme in the book and WOULD carry a tier bump, but there is no Exit_Warning code beyond the artifactual PROFIT_ARMED to elevate (CLAUDE.md section 9). ADR-0020: post-cut peak stop vs live = 3.13% erosion (the 08-05 50% cut re-based the watermark from) - does NOT fire. Stop held. |
| NYT | New York Times Co | 67.06 | HOLD | 67.06 | 64.15 | n/a | n/a | 54.36 (-18.9%) | The New York Times carries an avoid tag and a negative 12-week view, but avoid means do-not-buy, not sell, and the shares are still 4.5% above our stop. No action; the exit fires fast if goes. OPERATIONAL: AVOID x4, cv flat at 42 (falling trend intact). Close vs EMA200 = -5.15%; 12wk = -18.9%; -9.19% on cost. Scan printed Stop_Price, ABOVE the close - rejected by hand (systemic finding 3). Stop held. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 58.51 | HOLD | — | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 52.68 | Kroger is the only name in this book that both screens undervalued and passes our quality test, which makes it the first place to look if a buy signal ever appears here - but there is no signal, and the stock is 7.4% below its 200-day trend with a negative 12-week view. A residual. Holding. OPERATIONAL: 5th consecutive NoTrade cv0. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.037, Quality_Pass True, Bargain True -> val_adj +1, but conviction 0 means no candidacy. Close vs EMA200; 12wk = -9.96%. Stop held. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
153 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.086 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.