Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AXP | American Express Co | 326.16 | SELL 88.52% | 326.16 | 317.92 | 326.16 (+0.0%) | n/a | 292.26 (-10.4%) | American Express has now closed below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages while the model's 12-week view sits at, about 10% below today's price — the trend-exit condition that the sell doctrine names explicitly, and the fourth straight session the model has refused to hold it. The label softened from three consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE prints to AVOID, but that is a de-rating of the long case rather than a repair: the price fell further below both trend lines and the forward view got worse. Fair value agrees independently — priced above its residual-income anchor, and the quality screen fails. Cutting 89% of the book's largest single loser is the trade. OPS: trend-exit basis (below EMA200 + negative 12wk), not the conviction floor — adj cv63 is below 65 and the card is admitted on structure. 4th consecutive ask; the 09-03 card at went unexecuted and that cost Remainder keeps the stop (not breached). 4wk estimate n/a — the engine prints no Target_Price on an AVOID row. Size modifier 1.0x (MoS -0.43 is not <= -1, no tier bump). Work the order: this is ~10% of NAV. · news |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 80.17 | SELL ALL | 80.17 | 81.36⚠ | 80.75 (+0.7%) | n/a | 64.54 (-19.5%) | Delta has spent four straight sessions below its recorded risk line while the model's 12-week view sits at — nearly 20% below the current price, the worst forward view in the book by a wide margin. That combination of a decisive stop break and a negative 12-week outlook is a signal-based exit in its own right and does not need the engine to print a sell label, which it has not done in four sessions of NO TRADE. The airline's fundamentals are genuinely constructive — September-quarter EPS guided to -2.50, full-year -7.50 affirmed, dividend raised 15% — and that is precisely why this is a full exit rather than a trim: a name the market keeps marking down through good news is telling a different story than its income statement. OPS: L2 basis; L3 says convert the 4th ask into action rather than a 5th re-recommendation. Breach is narrowing (-1.22 -> -0.58 ATR), so the exit rests on the 12wk view, not the depth of the break. Valuation is barred from vetoing a signal-based exit. News is background (July release), not in the 09-03/09-04 window, so it does not override. Position closed; drop the stop from the monitor after fill. · news |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 95.63 | SELL 88.52% | 95.62 | 91.97 | 95.63 (+0.0%) | n/a | 89.09 (-6.8%) | The Series A shares broke their risk line four sessions ago and the break is deepening rather than repairing — from -0.67 ATR on Thursday to -1.51 ATR tonight — with the 12-week view at, another 7% lower. Their Series C twin reclaimed its own line on the same session, so this is not a read-through from a shared catalyst; the A shares are being marked down on their own. There is no valuation anchor to argue the other side because the fair-value model returns NA on negative equity, which leaves the risk line as the only discipline available, and it has failed. OPS: L2 basis, promoted from the 09-03 slot-cap as promised (non-execution cost). Technical-only card — quality gate off, val_adj 0. Stop for the 210-sh remainder RE-BASED -> (anchor close - 1.5 ATR); the old line is broken and stale. 4wk n/a (no Target_Price on a NoTrade row). · news |
| — | Acquire bucket | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No purchases today. Not one of the 29 names produced a BUY, STRONG BUY or BUY - ADD label, so there is nothing to buy at a price the model endorses — the ninth consecutive session with an empty buy pool. Cash stays on the sidelines and rises to 60.6% of NAV after tonight's disposals. OPS: ANTICIPATE slot also empty — no BUY - ANTICIPATE label anywhere, so the >=2-of-3 eligibility test cannot be met; AAPL, which printed AnticipationUp_VCP for three sessions, collapsed from conviction 88 to NO TRADE on this close. Nearest buy-side names are all HOLD labels: BAC cv66 (quality gate False), OXY cv63, COF cv62, KO cv62 (the only PullbackBuy_VWAP print, but extended +0.87 ATR above its entry). |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 208.60 | NO ACTION | 208.60 | 204.05 | 210.93 (+1.1%) | n/a | 243.47 (+16.7%) | Chevron is the best position in the book — up 23% on cost, more than ten ATRs of gain, and carrying the most positive 12-week view of any holding at +16.7%. The profit-take rule did technically arm and fire, but on the softest possible trigger: a conviction reading that fell only because the label flipped to NO TRADE. Against that sit three concrete catalysts — a $7bn Venezuela commitment through 2031 that roughly doubles output there, a Q2 beat with revenue up 56% and 4bn of adjusted free cash flow, and a 20-year 2.67GW power purchase agreement with Microsoft that de-couples part of the cash flow from the oil curve. Raising the trailing stop is the right protection here; cutting the winner is not. OPS: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 10.51) + tick (b) cv = FIRED, then DEMOTED to a trail-raise on the news override. Trail stays (2.0-ATR chandelier computes to, looser). Logged direction none / optional so the counterfactual grader prices what the override cost or saved. · news |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 292.08 | NO ACTION | 292.08 | 280.81 | 292.08 (+0.0%) | n/a | 306.80 (+5.0%) | VeriSign is up 14% on cost with five ATRs of gain, and its conviction reading collapsed to a NO TRADE print this session while the 12-week view thinned to just +5%. That is the profile the profit-take rule is built for — bank roughly a third and keep the rest running on a trailing stop. It lost its place tonight only because three larger losses needed the disposal slots. OPS: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 5.04) + tick (b) cv = FIRED at profit_take_1 30%, then SLOT-CAPPED behind AXP/DAL/LLYVA. First in the 2026-09-08 queue. Trail held (2.0-ATR chandelier is looser). / — immaterial in dollars but the rule fired and is recorded as such, not as prose. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 67.28 | NO ACTION | 67.28 | 64.15 | n/a | n/a | 54.74 (-18.6%) | The New York Times closed below both its 50-day and 200-day averages with a 12-week view nearly 19% lower, and the news confirms the technical case rather than fighting it: digital subscriber additions of about 280,000 missed consensus and slowed from the prior quarter, the stock fell more than 13% on that print and is down almost 13% over four weeks, with print advertising off 11% year on year. It is not sold tonight only because three larger losses took the available disposal slots. OPS: the trend-exit basis is already satisfied; the honest constraint is slot capacity, not signal failure. Cell haircut is severe (RallySell_BearTrend|sell -8, n=13, hit.083 - one win in twelve) which drops adj to 48. RE-ARM: promote to DISPOSE slot #1 at the next EOD on either a 2nd consecutive sell print or a close below. · news |
| M | Macy's Inc | 23.05 | NO ACTION | 23.05 | 22.49 | n/a | n/a | 20.14 (-12.6%) | Macy's printed a fresh sell label tonight and ranks second on the sell list, but it reports earnings in roughly two trading sessions and the shares are still holding above their risk line at. Selling into a print is a coin flip; the discipline is to hold or trail through the event and act on what the market does with the result. OPS: catalyst-aware hold (earnings ~2026-09-10, <=5 trading days). Clears the floor at cv68 so this is a deliberate deferral, not a rejection. Trim only on a confirmed lower-high or a decisive break of. Size in any case. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 82.17 | NO ACTION | 82.17 | 81.78 | n/a | n/a | 72.59 (-11.7%) | The highest-conviction sell signal in the book on its fourth consecutive print, with a 12-week view nearly 12% lower. It is not acted on because the entire position is worth — the trade would cost more in friction than it protects. OPS: clears the floor at cv74, Sell_Rank #1; lost purely on materiality. Logged conditional so the counterfactual grader keeps pricing the shelved trim. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 83.58 | NO ACTION | 83.58 | 82.64 | n/a | n/a | 73.16 (-12.5%) | Third consecutive sell print with a 12-week view about 12% lower, but conviction has faded from and the signal family behind it has been wrong eleven times in twelve. On a position that is not worth acting on. OPS: fails the floor after the -8 RallySell_BearTrend haircut (adj 55) and immaterial on size. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 128.18 | NO ACTION | 128.18 | 128.36⚠ | n/a | n/a | 107.29 (-16.3%) | Fourth consecutive sell print and a 12-week view 16% lower, with the shares grazing their risk line by a fraction of a percent. The signal family behind it is the least reliable in the book, and the position is worth under OPS: adj 57 fails the 65 floor after the -8 cell haircut; graze is -0.14% / -0.07 ATR, not a decisive break. Immaterial on size. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6298.85 | NO ACTION | 6298.85 | 6105.18 | n/a | n/a | 5851.51 (-7.1%) | Softened from three straight sell prints to AVOID with conviction down from, and a 12-week view about 7% lower. A three-share position worth in total; two shares is not a trade worth a disposal slot. OPS: fails the floor at adj 63; immaterial on size. Stop intact, close is 3% above it. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 28.99 | NO ACTION | 28.99 | 27.96 | n/a | n/a | 27.46 (-5.3%) | Softened to AVOID with conviction just under the acting threshold, and the shares closed at, well clear of the risk line. The exit case queued earlier this month has not re-armed. OPS: fails the floor at 62; re-arm below still unmet (close). Stays withdrawn. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 60.04 | HOLD | 60.04 | 58.18 | n/a | 62.48 (+4.1%) | 66.75 (+11.2%) | Occidental is up nearly 23% on cost with the second-best forward view in the book at +11%, and nothing has deteriorated — conviction is unchanged and no exit warning has fired beyond the profit flag itself. Hold and let the trailing stop do the work. OPS: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 9.10) but no fire tick. Trail held at; the 2.0-ATR chandelier computes to, which is looser, so no raise is warranted. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 261.07 | HOLD | 261.07 | 248.53 | n/a | 276.81 (+6.0%) | 276.94 (+6.1%) | Nucor is up 18% on cost with a positive 12-week view and steady conviction. Armed on profit but with no sign of deterioration, so the answer is the trailing stop, not a trim. OPS: armed (Gain_ATR 5.12), no fire tick (cv flat at 62, 12wk +6.08%). Trail held; chandelier is looser. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 219.60 | HOLD | 219.60 | 210.24 | n/a | 228.97 (+4.3%) | 233.54 (+6.3%) | Capital One is up 7% with a positive 12-week view, though conviction gave back thirteen points this session. Not enough deterioration to trim, but enough to tighten the risk line. OPS: armed (Gain_ATR 3.09); conviction drop of 13 is under the 20-point fire bar. Trail RAISED -> (2.0-ATR chandelier). |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 88.07 | HOLD | 88.07 | 86.61 | n/a | 92.19 (+4.7%) | 93.37 (+6.0%) | Coca-Cola is the only name in the book sitting on the pullback signal the playbook actually trusts, and it is up nearly 5% with a positive forward view. It is not a buy — the label is HOLD and the price sits above the model's entry — but it is a comfortable hold with a tighter stop. OPS: armed (Gain_ATR 3.04), no fire tick (cv. Trail RAISED -> (engine Stop_Price). Entry_Distance +0.87 ATR = extended, no add. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 319.97 | HOLD | 319.97 | 314.62 | n/a | n/a | 333.68 (+4.3%) | Apple's conviction collapsed from 88 to a NO TRADE print in a single session on a consensus conflict, days before its 09-Sep product event. The position is only modestly ahead and the 12-week view is still positive, so it is held on a firm stop rather than cut into the event. OPS: cv is the sharpest single-session drop in the book. Not armed on the Gain_ATR leg (1.41), so no profit-take. Trail held; chandelier is looser. Product event 09-Sep is the next decision point. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.68 | HOLD | 62.68 | 61.28 | n/a | 64.87 (+3.5%) | 66.03 (+5.3%) | Bank of America carries the highest conviction in the book tonight and a positive 12-week view, up 4% on cost. It is a hold, not an add: the label is HOLD rather than a buy, and the quality screen fails. OPS: highest cv in the book (66) but Quality_Pass False would block a new entry anyway. Trail held (close, 2.3% above). |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 341.59 | HOLD | 341.59 | 341.96⚠ | n/a | n/a | 323.68 (-5.2%) | Chubb slipped a tenth of a percent back below the risk line it repaired on Thursday — a graze, not a break — and the valuation model calls it outright cheap. Hold the line and watch. OPS: breach -0.11% / -0.06 ATR. The 09-02 sell card was withdrawn on 09-03 when the line was reclaimed; re-arm on a decisive close below with a negative 12wk (currently -5.24%). |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 24.85 | HOLD | 24.85 | 24.87⚠ | n/a | 26.23 (+5.6%) | 24.73 (-0.5%) | Kraft Heinz is grazing its stop by two cents with a 12-week view that is essentially flat rather than negative — not the combination that triggers an exit. Hold. OPS: breach -0.08% / -0.03 ATR; 12wk -0.48% is flat, so the L2 stop-break + negative-12wk pair does not complete. Trail held. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 493.55 | HOLD | 493.55 | 493.86⚠ | n/a | 519.35 (+5.2%) | 515.24 (+4.4%) | Moody's is grazing its stop by 31 cents while still carrying a positive 12-week view of +4.4%. The line stands. OPS: breach -0.06% / -0.02 ATR; positive 12wk blocks the L2 pair. Conviction fading is the thing to watch. Trail held rather than adopting the scan's looser. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 338.46 | HOLD | 338.46 | 333.68 | n/a | n/a | 295.52 (-12.7%) | Alphabet has printed NO TRADE for three sessions and sits just above its stop with a negative 12-week view. It is held because the risk line is intact, but it is the next name in line if that changes. OPS: close is 1.4% above the stop; 12wk -12.69%. A decisive break completes the L2 pair and promotes it to the DISPOSE pool. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 335.31 | HOLD | 335.31 | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 289.56 (-13.6%) | The C shares track the A shares: NO TRADE, negative 12-week view, but a wider cushion above the stop. Held on the same terms. OPS: close is 4.7% above the stop; 12wk -13.64%. Same L2 trigger as GOOGL. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 183.99 | HOLD | 183.99 | 169.18 | n/a | n/a | 125.09 (-32.0%) | DaVita remains the book's deepest drawdown at -22%, but it is well above its re-based stop and the 50% cut in August already took the size down. Held. OPS: ADR-0020 raw erosion reads 27.5% off the watermark but re-bases to ~3% because of the 08-05 cut, so no mandatory trim. Trail held (close 8.8% above). |
| KR | Kroger Co | 58.59 | HOLD | 58.59 | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 53.26 (-9.1%) | A 109-share stub worth with a negative forward view but no risk-line break. Not worth a decision. OPS: worst live ADR-0020 erosion in the book at 11.54%, still below the 15% bar and re-based by the July cut. Trail held. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
156 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.086 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.