Recommendations
1 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AXP | American Express Co | 326.10 | SELL 88.5% | 326.10 | 317.92 | 322.52 (-1.1%) | 314.18 (-3.7%) | 290.35 (-11.0%) | American Express is the book's largest single loser and the model has now stopped hedging about it: after a session as AVOID the label snapped back to STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 69, the highest-ranked sell in the portfolio, with the price below every moving average it has (20/50/100/200-day) and below its volume-weighted average price. The 12-week view of sits 11% under tonight's close, and the 52-week low is only another 11% below that, so the downside is not yet exhausted. Fair value agrees from a different direction: the shares are priced above their residual-income anchor and the quality screen fails. Cutting 89% is the trade. OPS: adj cv69 CLEARS the 65 floor on its own this session (09-04 it was admitted at cv63 on the trend-exit basis) - Sell_Rank #1, dollar bleed, ~10.1% of NAV. 5th consecutive ask; the 09-04 card at went unexecuted, costing - the smallest slippage of the blocker's run, but only because AXP went sideways. Scorecard cell FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell is +0 (n=52, hit.52) - a coin-flip cell, so this card rests on structure and size, not on cell edge. Size modifier 1.0x (MoS -0.43 is not <= -1). Remainder keeps the stop, not breached. 4wk estimate is time-scaled from the 12wk view - the engine prints no Target_Price on this row. WORK THE ORDER: ~10% of NAV. · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 336.64 | SELL 30% | 336.64 | 327.97 | 334.48 (-0.6%) | 329.45 (-2.1%) | 315.07 (-6.4%) | Chubb has stopped grazing its risk line and gone through it: the stop that held all through August was breached by 0.11% on Friday and by 1.56% tonight - a real break, not a wick - while the model's 12-week view of sits 6.4% below the close. A decisive stop break plus a negative forward view is a sell basis on its own, and it does not need the engine to print a sell label, which it has not done in three sessions of NO TRADE on consensus conflict. The insurer's own numbers say the same thing more quietly: Q2 revenue beat but book value per share missed, and the shares have drifted down since. This is a size cut, not an exit - Chubb still trades above its 200-day and screens at fair value, so the position stays. OPS: L2 admission (stop break + negative 12wk) on a NO TRADE row; US-1 says act the FIRST session the trigger fires rather than bleed for four. Portion set at 30%, not the engine's 89%: valuation reads UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.005) which argues a trim DOWN one tier per the amplify-only rule, and the break is one session old on a name still above EMA200. of a position. Stop for the 11,464-sh remainder RE-BASED -> (close - 1.5 ATR) - re-basing is earned by the cut, not granted instead of it. Ex-dividend on 09-11; immaterial at 0.3%. Escalates to a full-size REDUCE if the 12wk stays negative and the name loses EMA200. · news |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 78.96 | SELL ALL | 78.96 | 81.36⚠ | 77.40 (-2.0%) | 73.76 (-6.6%) | 63.37 (-19.7%) | Delta has now spent five straight sessions below its risk line and the break is deepening again - 1.46% on Friday, 2.95% tonight - while the model's 12-week view of sits nearly 20% below the current price, still the worst forward view in the book by a wide margin. The airline's fundamentals remain genuinely good: September-quarter EPS guided to -2.50, full-year -7.50 affirmed, mid-teens revenue growth and a 15% dividend raise. That is exactly why this is a full exit rather than a trim - a stock the market keeps marking lower through good news is telling a different story than its income statement, and the position is already 14.9% underwater. OPS: L2 basis (decisive stop break + negative 12wk), 5th consecutive ask - L3 says convert it rather than issue a 6th. Non-execution of the 09-04 card at cost this session. News is in-window this time but is reiterated June-quarter guidance, not a new catalyst, so it does not override a five-session technical breakdown; valuation is barred from vetoing a signal-based exit in any case. Below EMA20/50/100 and closing on EMA200. Drop the stop from the monitor after fill. · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 209.80 | ADD — QUEUED @204.75 | 204.75 | 196.87 | 207.49 (+1.3%) | 213.89 (+4.5%) | 244.58 (+19.5%) | Chevron is the single best setup in this book and the only name in it with a genuinely bullish trend reading - a PullbackBuy at conviction 79, Buy_Rank #1, trading above every moving average with a 12-week view of about 17% above tonight's close, the strongest forward view in the portfolio. The business is delivering to match: Q2 EPS of beat the consensus on record US upstream output and 4bn of adjusted free cash flow, and the $7bn Venezuela expansion is targeted at doubling production there to 600,000 barrels a day. The catch is price - the stock is up 43% this year and sits 2.5% above the model's own entry, so this is queued at rather than bought at the market. OPS: L1 cell (PullbackBuy_VWAP, the preferred family; cell bias +0, n=8, hit.50 - actionable but no edge, so the card rests on the setup). Entry_Distance_ATR -1.28 = extended, no-chase rule applies -> GTC limit, expires 2026-09-11. val_adj -4 (MoS -0.85); quality gate F-Score/FCF FAILS but CVX is HELD so the gate does not block an ADD. Size 30% x 1,104 = = - immaterial at 0.07% of NAV, and that is a structural artifact worth naming: the ADD rule sizes off a position this book has already cut to a stub, so the best signal in a 50%-cash portfolio can only 0.07% of it. CONDITIONAL: the base trail sits at, only under the limit - if trades, the stop fires first and this order AUTO-WITHDRAWS; do not add to a name that just stopped out. · news |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 88.36 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @89.22 lapsed — closed 88.36 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Coca-Cola prints the book's second buy signal of the night - a PullbackBuy at conviction 75, Buy_Rank #2, sitting on its 20-day average with the model's entry just above the close, so the order needs a touch of strength to fill rather than a chase. The business is behind it: Q2 revenue up 6.7%, a fifth consecutive EPS beat, and Trademark Coca-Cola volume up 5% globally, the strongest in 17 years outside the COVID recovery. What holds the size down is price - the shares are up 26% this year near an all-time high, the fair-value model reads GROWTH_PRICED_IN at a 2.1x margin-of-safety deficit, and at least one sell-side desk has downgraded on valuation alone. Buy it, but buy three-quarters of the normal clip. OPS: adj cv65 = EXACTLY at the floor - conviction 75 less the maximum -10 valuation haircut, cell bias +0. This is the thinnest card of the night and the first to drop if the open gaps. Size 30% x 96,154 x 0.75 modifier (MoS -2.13 falls in the -3 to -1 band) = =; max_position_pct (60%) and the are both non-binding. Limit (entry range -); close was so expect a fill at or below the limit. 12wk EXCEEDS the DCF anchor - projection assumes growth beyond what is priced in. Ex-dividend on 09-15. Trail on the existing 96,154-sh base RAISED -> (PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR 3.50, no deterioration tick). · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 316.22 | HOLD | — | 314.62 | n/a | n/a | 325.23 | Apple holds through its 09-Sep product event - the iPhone 18 Pro line plus a first foldable - which lands inside the catalyst window and argues for sitting still rather than pre-positioning. The signal itself is inert: three sessions of NO TRADE on consensus conflict, position 2.5% ahead of cost. The risk line is uncomfortably tight, against a close, so a 0.5% slip trips it. OPS: catalyst-aware hold; PROFIT_ARMED prints but Gain_ATR is 1.0, so the flag is the degenerate T12_Progress leg (see systemic finding 2), not real arming. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN, MoS -2.97 - amplify-only, cannot originate. Re-assess on the post-event close. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.39 | HOLD | — | 61.28 | n/a | n/a | 65.37 | Bank of America holds at conviction 66 with the 12-week view, about 4.8% above the close, and the position 3.8% ahead of cost. Nothing to do. OPS: stop held at (engine's is lower). CPI 09-11 and the FOMC 09-16 are the live inputs for the book's financials sleeve. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 60.65 | HOLD | — | 58.18 | n/a | n/a | 67.44 | Occidental is 24% ahead of cost and gaining - conviction ticked and the 12-week view sits 11% higher - so the profit-arming here resolves as a trail instruction, not a trim. OPS: PROFIT_ARMED on Gain_ATR 8.53, ZERO deterioration ticks (no second warning code, conviction rising, 12wk alive, no repeated NO TRADE) -> mandatory trail-raise, not a cut. Stop held (engine's is lower; never lower a trail). |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 256.40 | HOLD | — | 248.53 | n/a | n/a | 269.56 | Nucor is 16% ahead of cost with the 12-week view still 5% higher, but the label dropped from three sessions of HOLD to NO TRADE tonight. That is one print, not two. OPS: PROFIT_ARMED on Gain_ATR 4.34; deterioration tick (d) needs TWO consecutive NO TRADE prints and this is the first - a second one fires a 30% profit-take. Trail held. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 213.96 | HOLD | — | 210.24 | n/a | n/a | 224.08 | Capital One fell 2.6% on the session and dropped to NO TRADE, but the 12-week view is still positive at (+4.7%) and the stop has 1.7% of headroom. OPS: no longer PROFIT_ARMED - Gain_ATR has slipped 3.09 to 1.81, below the 3.0 arm. Financials sleeve is exposed to CPI 09-11 / FOMC 09-16. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 481.25 | HOLD | — | 493.86⚠ | n/a | n/a | 489.17 | Moody's broke its risk line properly tonight - 2.55% below the stop after grazing it by 0.06% on Friday - but the 12-week view is still POSITIVE at, 1.7% above the close, so the stop-break-plus-negative-12wk exit does not fire. OPS: stop deliberately NOT re-based. A broken line stays where it is until the position is actually cut - moving it away from an uncut position is the Trail Erosion failure ADR-0020 exists to catch. ESCALATES to DISPOSE slot #1 the moment the 12wk turns negative or the engine prints a sell label. position. |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 97.68 | HOLD | — | 98.69⚠ | n/a | n/a | 88.62 | The re-arm trigger set on 09-04 - a close back below - fired tonight at, with the 12-week view, 9.3% lower. The case is live and qualifies; it lost on slot capacity to three larger, older cards, not on merit. OPS: DISPOSE slot #4 tonight, PROMOTED to slot #1 on the next EOD if the break persists. position, 89% = of bleed deferred one session. Technical-only card - fair value returns NA. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 28.80 | HOLD | — | 27.96 | n/a | n/a | 27.14 | Sirius XM prints STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 62 and Sell_Rank #4, but two independent layers say do not take it. The scorecard's RallySell_BearTrend sell cell is the worst in the book at 1-of-13 on 1-week targets, an -8 haircut that drops this to adj 54, below the 65 floor. And the news is squarely against the short case: Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy on 02-Sep and lifted its target to from self-pay net additions turned positive for the first time in four years, churn hit a record low 1.4%, and the company becomes YouTube's exclusive digital-audio advertising partner this autumn. OPS: news OVERRIDES the sell label; the queue stays withdrawn and this is now a constructive hold. Stop. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 180.06 | HOLD | — | 169.18 | n/a | n/a | 123.20 | DaVita carries the worst forward view in the book - a 12-week estimate of against a close, 31.6% lower - and the position is 23.4% underwater. It is still not a sell card tonight: AVOID is not a sell label, the stop has 6.4% of headroom, and half the position was already cut on 05-Aug. OPS: near-miss, no origination class fires. ADR-0020 Trail Erosion does NOT fire - the raw 27.5% erosion from the July peak re-bases to 3.1% off the post-cut watermark. Valuation FAIR_VALUE, MoS -3.41 - would amplify a sell if one existed, cannot originate one. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 22.45 | HOLD | — | 22.49⚠ | n/a | n/a | 19.54 | Macy's is 0.18% under its stop - a graze, not a break - with earnings due around 10-Sep. The catalyst-aware rule says hold through the print unless there is a confirmed lower high or a decisive break, and 0.18% is neither. OPS: position, immaterial. Re-assess on the post-earnings close. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 120.98 | HOLD | — | 128.36⚠ | n/a | n/a | 95.98 | Constellation is 5.75% below its stop with a 12-week view 20.7% lower and RSI at 28 - the clearest L2 trigger in the book on the merits. It is not carded because the position is, 0.003% of NAV; the commission would exceed the risk avoided. OPS: below materiality, not below the signal bar. Engine also reports the liquidity gate failed on this row. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 78.98 | HOLD | — | 81.78⚠ | n/a | n/a | 67.43 | Four consecutive STRONG SELL - REDUCE prints and Sell_Rank #2, but nine shares - of exposure. OPS: fails on size, and separately would fail the floor anyway (adj 57 after the -8 RallySell_BearTrend haircut). |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6116.86 | HOLD | — | 6105.18 | n/a | n/a | 5542.78 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE at conviction 65 and Sell_Rank #3, three shares, OPS: adj 57 after the -8 RallySell_BearTrend haircut - below the floor on signal AND below materiality on size. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 80.37 | HOLD | — | 82.64⚠ | n/a | n/a | 67.96 | Below its stop with a negative 12-week view, but and OPS: below materiality. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 338.36 | HOLD | — | 333.68 | n/a | n/a | 295.03 | Alphabet is inert - four sessions of NO TRADE, 6% under cost, 12-week view 12.8% lower - and the one standing overlay override on this name (invalidated below) is long since void at. OPS: 16-Sep deadline for redaction motions on the sealed ad-tech remedies memorandum is the live catalyst. Stop, 1.4% of headroom - tight. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 24.90 | HOLD | — | 24.87 | n/a | n/a | 24.39 | Kraft Heinz sits 0.12% above its stop with the 12-week view 2% lower. Nothing fires. OPS: watch the line. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 42.28 | HOLD | — | 41.63 | n/a | n/a | 37.65 | Ally fell 3.3% to but remains 1.6% above its stop; the label is AVOID, which is not a sell basis. OPS: the buy queue withdrawn on 09-04 stays withdrawn. Valuation reads UNDERVALUED but the quality gate fails, which halves any positive adjustment to nil. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 57.20 | HOLD | — | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 51.42 | OPS: below materiality. Trail erosion 11.5% off the 06-Jul peak with no size cut since - the highest genuine reading in the book, still under the 15% ADR-0020 threshold. Watch it. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 67.96 | HOLD | — | 64.15 | n/a | n/a | 56.00 | The re-arm set on 09-04 - a second consecutive sell print or a close below - did NOT trigger. The Times rose 1% to and prints AVOID, not a sell. OPS: the 12-week view is still 17.6% lower and the name sits below EMA50/100/200, so the case has not gone away; the trigger simply has not fired. Re-arm stands unchanged. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 335.38 | HOLD | — | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 289.48 | The C shares track the A shares - four sessions of NO TRADE, 12-week view 13.7% lower. OPS: position, stop with 4.7% of headroom. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
159 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.086 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.