Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| CVX | Chevron Corp | 213.81 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @214.34 lapsed — closed 213.81 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Chevron is the only genuinely bullish structure left in this book and the macro just moved decisively in its favour: Brent crude broke a barrel for the first time in over six weeks, lifting the shares 1.9% on a day the S&P fell 0.48%, with the stock above every major moving average and the strongest twelve-week forward view in the portfolio at +17%. The $7bn Venezuela expansion toward 600kbpd and a 2.67-gigawatt power deal pitched as an AI-datacentre hedge give the move a real earnings basis rather than a pure oil-price bounce, and at a fair-value reading we are paying about what it is worth. | MomentumContinuation_Up cv93 -> adj 89 (val_adj -4, cell report-only n=3 hit 0.0 - stated, not applied). Buy_Rank #1, Trend pillar 94, Regime Trending. Entry sits ABOVE the close (Entry_Distance_ATR +0.12) so the limit needs a touch of strength - not a chase. Sizing 99.33% x 1,104-sh stub x 1.0 modifier = = = 0.24% of NAV; this is the ADD-stub sizing defect (systemic finding 7), not a conviction statement. Quality gate fails but does not block an ADD. f=0.30 on the 1wk (L5, calib_1w -0.086, 10th session). Base trail RAISED -> : PROFIT_ARMED at Gain_ATR 10.50 with an RSI_DIV tick, but G1-softened (fresh MomentumContinuation at cv93 >= 80) downgrades a Tier-1 code to a trail-raise; ticks (b)(c)(d) all clear. Supersedes the 09-08 GTC @ which the name ran 4.4% past - repriced per US-9, never chased. · news |
| AXP | American Express Co | 321.80 | SELL 50% | 321.80 | 317.92 | 317.86 (-1.2%) | 308.67 (-4.1%) | 282.42 (-12.2%) | American Express is a good company with a broken chart, and we are cutting half rather than defending the position. The shares now close below every major moving average including the 200-day, the twelve-week view points 12% lower, and the stock is down 14.5% this year against a market up 10.7%, with US card additions decelerating and credit risk drawing scrutiny. Second-quarter revenue rose 19.4% and beat on earnings, which is exactly why we take half and keep half rather than exit outright. | BASIS IS NOT THE CONVICTION FLOOR - stated explicitly. Signal reclassified this session FailedBreakout_Down_20D (bias +1) -> RallySell_BearTrend (bias -8, n=13, hit 0.077 - worst cell in the book) and conviction fell, so adj 55 DOES NOT clear the 65 floor. Carded on the Step 6 trend-exit basis (close below EMA200 with a negative 12wk) and this book precedent (09-04 admitted AXP at cv63 on the same basis). Portion halved from the engine 88.52% to 50% as the honest expression of the -8 haircut: structure originates, cell says we have been wrong 92% of the time acting on it. Escalates to the balance on the next confirming print. Valuation gives no tier bump (OVERVALUED_VS_RI, MoS -0.43, not <= -3). 4wk time-scaled from the 12wk - no Target_Price printed on this family. Remainder keeps the stop (1.5x ATR chandelier is lower; never lower a trail). 6th consecutive ask (L3/US-1); non-execution cost this session alone. WORK THE ORDER - 5.6% of NAV. · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 337.62 | SELL 50% | 337.62 | 329.22 | 335.26 (-0.7%) | 329.74 (-2.3%) | 313.97 (-7.0%) | Chubb flipped to the strongest sell reading in the book this session, but it is trading at roughly its own fair value, so we cut half rather than run for the door. The shares have slipped below their 20- and 50-day averages with a twelve-week view 7% lower, while the 200-day trend remains intact 3.6% beneath. Second-quarter revenue beat by 2.9% on better underwriting and investment income, yet book value per share and net premiums earned both missed and climate losses are a live headwind - a reason to reduce exposure, not to abandon a quality insurer. | RallySell_BearTrend cv77 -> adj 69, CLEARS the 65 floor even after the -8 haircut. Sell_Rank #1. Late-flipped REDUCE (one print from three NO TRADE sessions) so it is a size cut, not an exit. Portion cut from the engine 88.52% to 50% because Val_Signal UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.0026, FV/sh vs close) argues a trim DOWN one tier under the amplify-only rule - selling a name at its own fair value is done at the minimum defensible size. Subsumes the 09-08 30% card that never executed. NOT a stop breach (vs) - signal-originated, not L2. Remainder stop RE-BASED -> (close - 1.5 ATR), earned by the cut. 4wk time-scaled from the 12wk - no Target_Price on this family. Ex-div on 11-Sep; the 09-10 fill forfeits on the sold half, immaterial. · news |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 78.75 | SELL ALL | 78.75 | 78.75⚠ | 77.17 (-2.0%) | 73.49 (-6.7%) | 62.97 (-20.0%) | We are exiting Delta in full. The stock has closed below its risk line for six straight sessions, sits 15% below our cost, and the twelve-week view points a further 20% lower - and the reason finally has a name: Brent crude just broke a barrel, the same fact that makes Chevron our best long tonight. Fuel is an airline's largest controllable cost, full-year earnings are now forecast to fall 8.3%, and a stock the market marks down for six consecutive sessions through affirmed guidance and a 15% dividend increase is telling a different story than its income statement. The Street is still overwhelmingly bullish with a target; we are taking the other side. | L2 fire: NoTrade x4 (cv0), close vs the stop = -3.21% / -1.32 ATR for a sixth session, 12wk -20.04% (worst held view bar DVA). Below EMA20/50/100, EMA200 only 4.3% below. NoTrade|sell bias +0 (n=56, hit 0.481). Valuation FAIR_VALUE, MoS -0.73 - no tier bump. 4wk time-scaled from the 12wk. 6th ask, converted per L3; the news read CHANGED from 09-08 (where guidance looked constructive and no bear catalyst existed) - Brent is that catalyst. Drop the stop from the monitor after fill. · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 315.34 | HOLD | — | 314.62 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Largest position in the book and it is sitting a quarter of a percent above its risk line with a forward view of barely +1.6%. The 9-Sep product event passed with the stock flat, so there is nothing to chase or fade; we hold, but the next decisive close below the line turns this into a sale. | NO TRADE x3 (cv0), close vs stop = +0.23%. 12wk +1.63%, marginal. L2 FIRES on the moment the 12wk crosses zero on a close below. GROWTH_PRICED_IN, MoS -2.97. Sibling book ustech independently flags the same name EXIT ARMED at the identical stop. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 330.65 | HOLD | — | 333.68⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Alphabet fell 2.7% after Meta launched a free consumer AI assistant the market read as a direct competitive threat, and the shares grazed their risk line. We are holding through 16 September, when the court deadline on the ad-tech remedy redactions lands - selling into a binary legal event on a competitive headline is how you sell the low. | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv63 -> adj 55 (RallySell_BearTrend -8), below the 65 floor. Stop grazed -0.91% / -0.40 ATR with 12wk -14.40%: a technical L2 pair, but the catalyst-aware hold governs (horizon: ad-tech redaction deadline 16-Sep, 4 trading days) and doctrine requires a confirmed lower-high or a decisive break - a -0.40 ATR graze is neither. Still ABOVE EMA200 (+0.9%). News classified concern, not override. RE-ARM: decisive close below after 16-Sep, or a confirmed lower high. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 328.38 | HOLD | — | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Same case as the A shares: a competitive headline knocked 2.1% off the stock, but the ad-tech redaction deadline lands 16 September and we do not sell a legal binary on sentiment. | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv63 -> adj 55, below the floor. Stop unbroken (close). Above EMA200 (+0.6%). Mirrors GOOGL. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 474.57 | HOLD | — | 493.86⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Moody's broke its risk line by 3.9% and its twelve-week view flipped negative this session, so the exit case is now complete - it simply lost the last disposal slot to a position bleeding harder. This is the first name to go on the next verdict if the break holds. | L2 BOTH LEGS NOW FIRE: break deepened -2.55% -> -3.91% / -1.58 ATR, 12wk +1.65% -> -1.26%. at risk. Lost slot #3 to DAL on loss-prevention grounds (DAL -15.09% with a -20.04% view vs MCO -2.87% with a view 1.26% below zero and EMA200 only 0.6% above). Quality_Rank 3, OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -1.05. Stop NOT re-based - re-basing is earned by a cut. ESCALATION: DISPOSE #1 next EOD if the close stays below with a negative 12wk. Note Target_Price prints BELOW the close on an AVOID row (systemic finding 5). |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 96.93 | HOLD | — | 98.69⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Liberty Live has qualified for a cut on merit three sessions running and has been crowded out by larger positions each time. The break is deepening and the forward view is 12% lower; it moves ahead of the queue on the next verdict. | L2 qualifies: break -1.02% -> -1.78%, 12wk -11.66%, no valuation anchor (FV/sh negative on negative equity). Third consecutive slot-capacity deferral; cost so far PROMOTED ahead of ALLY next EOD. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 93.66 | HOLD | — | 91.97 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sibling of LLYVK; the earlier breach is repaired against the re-based line and the position is 1.8% clear. Reprieve holding, not a repair - the forward view is still 11.7% lower. | RE-ARM below.. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 41.83 | HOLD | — | 41.63 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Ally prints the second-strongest sell reading in the book and just clears the conviction bar, but it is too small to displace any of tonight's three cards - and at a modest discount to fair value any trim would be the minimum size anyway. | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv73 -> adj 65, exactly at the floor. Fails on size: 88.52% x = of bleed, below all three carded names. UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.07, FV/sh). Not breached (vs). Watch. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 24.61 | HOLD | — | 24.87⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Kraft Heinz slipped below its line for the first time, but only just, and the forward view is barely negative - one shallow session is not an exit case. | New breach -1.05% / -0.41 ATR, 12wk only -3.98%, sitting exactly on EMA200. Shallowest legitimate L2 in the book. Watch for a second consecutive close below. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 183.01 | HOLD | — | 169.18 | n/a | n/a | n/a | DaVita carries the worst forward view in the book at nearly 30% below the current price, yet no sell trigger has actually fired and the stop still has 7.6% of room after a positive session. Half was cut in August; we do not sell the rest on the forecast alone. | NO TRADE, cv0 - not a sell label. 12wk vs = -29.94%, position -22.09%. FAIR_VALUE, MoS -3.41. No origination class fires. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 28.54 | HOLD | — | 27.96 | n/a | n/a | n/a | No sell label this session, and the upgrade case from early September still stands - a price-target lift to the first positive self-pay subscriber additions in four years, record-low churn and an exclusive audio-advertising deal with YouTube. Constructive hold. | AVOID cv62, no sell label. FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell now +1 (n=53).. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.67 | HOLD | — | 61.28 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Bank of America is strengthening - conviction rose again, it trades above every moving average and the forward view is positive - but the model prints a hold rather than a buy, so there is nothing to act on. | HOLD cv66 -> 75, FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, 12wk +4.58%, above all EMAs. OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -0.45 (val_adj -9 if it were a buy). Gain_ATR 2.17, not armed.. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 61.30 | HOLD | — | 58.47 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Occidental rides the same Brent move as Chevron with conviction still climbing and a forward view 12% higher. We raise the trailing stop and let it run. | HOLD cv69 -> 75, 12wk +11.83%, above all EMAs. PROFIT_ARMED at Gain_ATR 8.77 with NO deterioration tick -> mandatory trail-raise, not a trim. Stop RAISED ->. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 257.91 | HOLD | — | 248.53 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Nucor is holding a strong uptrend and the deterioration counter reset this session, so the position stands untouched. | HOLD cv62, the NO TRADE streak broke at 1 - profit-take tick (d) counter RESET. PROFIT_ARMED at Gain_ATR 4.76, no ticks. 12wk +4.80%, +20.1% above EMA200. Trail HELD (engine is lower). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 286.94 | HOLD | — | 280.81 | n/a | n/a | n/a | VeriSign is up nearly 12% and still holding, but its forward view is now within pennies of the level that would call for taking profit. Trail held; one weak session arms it. | PROFIT_ARMED at Gain_ATR 3.79. Tick (c) RAZOR-THIN: 12wk vs the dead line - alive by. cv rising, no other warning. Trail HELD (engine is lower). RE-ARM: close below or ANY 12wk print under. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 210.86 | HOLD | — | 210.24 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Capital One is drifting with the bearish financials tape but has not broken anything. | AVOID cv52 (RallySell_BearTrend, adj 44) - below the floor. Stop vs close: 0.29% of headroom, effectively at the line. 12wk +2.52% POSITIVE, so L2 cannot fire. De-armed (Gain_ATR 1.25).. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 87.55 | HOLD | — | 86.81 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Add cancelled; the base position stands with its trailing stop unchanged. See the withdrawal line for the full reasoning. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 66.60 | HOLD | — | 64.15 | n/a | n/a | n/a | The New York Times fell 2% and its forward view is 18% lower, but the re-arm trigger set in early September still has not been hit. | AVOID cv53 (adj 45), below the floor. Stop unbroken (close). 12wk -18.15%, below EMA50/100/200. RE-ARM stands: 2nd consecutive sell print or a close below. Highest Quality_Rank in the book (1).. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 80.76 | HOLD | — | 82.64⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sell signal is real but the position is. | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv72 -> adj 64, below the floor anyway. Breach -2.27%, 12wk -17.10%.. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 79.13 | HOLD | — | 81.78⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sell signal is real but the position is. | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv72 -> adj 64, below the floor. Breach -3.24%, 12wk -16.48%.. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6187.30 | HOLD | — | 6105.18 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Sell signal is real but the position is. | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv69 -> adj 61, below the floor. Stop unbroken. 12wk -10.14%.. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 121.55 | HOLD | — | 128.36⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Deepest breach in the book and the cleanest exit case on the merits - and it is. | SELL - REDUCE cv65, BreakdownDown_52W (bias +0, n=2 report-only) -> adj 65 clears the floor. Breach -5.31% / -1.81 ATR, 12wk -23.28%, RSI 29.8. Fails purely on of size. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 21.51 | HOLD | — | 22.49⚠ | n/a | n/a | n/a | Macy's earnings have passed and the stop is broken, but the position is. | AVOID cv51 (adj 43). Breach -4.36% / -1.15 ATR, 12wk -16.04%. Worst re-based ADR-0020 erosion in the book at 8.47% - below the 15% threshold. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 56.44 | HOLD | — | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Kroger holds above its line;. | NO TRADE cv0. Stop unbroken (close). 12wk -11.62%. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.04. Raw ADR-0020 erosion 11.54% re-bases to 0 off the 03-Aug cut. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
163 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.086 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.