Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| AXP | American Express Co | 320.71 | SELL 50% | 320.71 | 317.92 | 316.44 (-1.3%) | 306.47 (-4.4%) | 278.03 (-13.3%) | American Express keeps grinding lower: the shares closed at, below every major moving average including the 200-day at, and the model's 12-week view of implies a further 13% downside. The valuation work marks it OVERVALUED on a residual-income basis, and while the business is fine - Q2 revenue grew 19% and management still guides to 10% full-year growth - the chart has been broken for months and credit-quality questions are building. We are cutting half the position and keeping the rest, rather than defending a name the market has marked down for a quarter. Trend-exit basis (close below EMA200 + negative 12wk), NOT the conviction floor: tonight's engine label flipped to a bullish ReversalUp_Oversold at cv57, which does not clear 65 and whose |sell cell has n=1. Portion held at 50% because the reversal setup argues against a full cut. 7th consecutive ask (L3/US-1); the six prior cards never executed - executor blocked since 2026-08-18. Stop on the 17,330-sh remainder held at (never lower a trail). Engine printed Target_Price ABOVE the close on this row - a long-side target, not the exit path; 4wk time-scaled from the 12wk instead. · news |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc | 78.24 | SELL ALL | 78.24 | 78.24⚠ | 76.63 (-2.1%) | 72.87 (-6.9%) | 62.12 (-20.6%) | We are exiting Delta completely. The stock has closed below our risk line for seven straight sessions, the position is 15.6% underwater, and the model's 12-week view of implies another 21% of downside. The reason is fuel: management flagged a $4bn increase in 2026 fuel costs and second-quarter fuel expense was up 77% year-on-year, the highest quarterly fuel bill in the airline's history. Delta has reaffirmed full-year guidance and raised its dividend 15%, but a stock the market marks lower through good guidance and into a crude-oil shock is telling a different story than its income statement. Basis L2 (decisive stop-break + negative 12wk) on four consecutive NO TRADE prints; `NoTrade|sell` bias +0 (n=57). 7th consecutive ask - the six prior full-exit cards never filled (executor blocked). Action price is the anchor close; the row prints no Entry_Price. Drop the stop from the monitor after the fill. · news |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 467.36 | SELL 50% | 467.36 | 450.30 | 465.33 (-0.4%) | 460.58 (-1.5%) | 447.04 (-4.3%) | Moody's has broken down and the news now agrees with the chart. The stock closed at, 5.4% below our risk line and for the first time decisively under its 200-day average, and the 12-week view has flipped negative. Peer S&P Global's weak 2026 outlook knocked the whole ratings-and-analytics group lower, Moody's itself trimmed 2026 operating-margin guidance to 44-45%, and it has just put the business-development-company sector on negative outlook - a direct read-through to the private-credit issuance that drives its own revenue. It is a high-quality business (3rd best quality rank in this book) but marked OVERVALUED, so we halve rather than exit. Escalated exactly as promised on the 09-09 card: close stayed below and the 12wk stayed negative (-1.26% -> -4.35%). Basis is L2 + EMA200 break, not the conviction floor - `RallySell_BearTrend|sell` is the book's worst cell at -8 (n=15, hit.077), which haircuts cv52 to 44 and is why the portion is 50%, not the engine's 88.5%. Stop on the 2,502-sh remainder RE-BASED -> (close - 1.5 ATR), earned by the cut and conditional on the fill. Engine printed Target_Price ABOVE the close on an AVOID row again - 4wk time-scaled from the 12wk. · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 326.57 | HOLD | — | 314.62 | n/a | n/a | 337.00 | Apple is off the danger list. It jumped 3.6% to, the best session in the book, and now sits 3.8% clear of our risk line with a positive 12-week view - a week ago it was 0.2% above the line with the forward view flat. The 09-Sep iPhone 18 Pro / foldable launch has been digested constructively. Largest position in the book at; EXIT ARMED status lifted, label back to HOLD cv78. Trail held at (engine's is lower). Not profit-armed (Gain_ATR 2.09). Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -2.97 - no sell origination from valuation. |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 24.39 | HOLD | — | 24.87⚠ | n/a | n/a | 22.94 | Kraft Heinz now qualifies for a trim on our rules - second straight close below the risk line, a negative 12-week view and the shares slipping under their 200-day average - but it lost the third disposal slot to names that are bleeding harder. The backdrop is weak: the new CEO has shelved the planned break-up, 2026 earnings are set to fall ~21%, and the listing moves to the NYSE on 14-Sep. NEAR-MISS #2, first deferral. Break is the shallowest legitimate L2 in the book (-1.93%, 12wk -5.95%, position only -3.86% underwater). exposure. ESCALATE to a carded trim on the next EOD if it stays below. |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 96.85 | HOLD | — | 98.69⚠ | n/a | n/a | 83.91 | Liberty Live Series C has qualified for a trim on our rules for four sessions running - below the risk line with a 12-week view 13% under the current price - and has been crowded out of the disposal slots every time by larger bleeds. No fundamental news; the valuation model can't price it (negative), so this is a technical call only. NEAR-MISS #3, FOURTH consecutive deferral - the clearest evidence yet for the <=3 slot cap being wrong for this book (systemic finding 8). exposure; deferral cost to date PROMOTE to a carded exit next EOD ahead of everything except a fresh larger bleed. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 332.60 | HOLD | — | 333.68⚠ | n/a | n/a | 282.64 | Alphabet is held through its 16-Sep ad-tech court deadline rather than sold into it. The shares recovered 0.6% to and the aggressive sell signal from the previous session has already faded to neutral, so there is no confirmed breakdown to act on - only a 0.3% graze of our risk line. Doctrine is to hold or trail through a binary legal event absent a decisive break. Catalyst-aware hold; still above EMA200. 12wk -15.02%. RE-ARM: a decisive close below AFTER 16-Sep, or a confirmed lower high. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 330.39 | HOLD | — | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 278.98 | Same treatment as the Class A shares: held through the 16-Sep ad-tech deadline. Not below its risk line, sell signal already faded to neutral, and the shares rose 0.6% on the session. exposure. RE-ARM with GOOGL. |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | 61.16 | HOLD | — | 58.47 | n/a | n/a | 68.46 | Occidental is held and trailed. Up 25% on our cost with a 12-week view 12% higher, it is the book's second-best forward view behind Chevron and the energy exposure that has been carrying the portfolio. Profit-armed at Gain_ATR 7.95 with no deterioration tick - conviction is a 6-point drift, not the 20 required, and the forward view is alive. Trail held at (engine's is lower). |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 288.85 | HOLD | — | 280.81 | n/a | n/a | 294.73 | VeriSign is held with a tight leash. Conviction is improving and the position is 12.6% in profit, but the 12-week view is now almost exactly level with the current price, which means the model sees no further upside from here. Profit-armed at Gain_ATR 4.39; tick (c) is razor-thin for the second session running - 12wk vs the dead line, alive by. RE-ARM: any close below or any 12wk print under fires a 30% profit-take. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 87.83 | HOLD | — | 86.81 | n/a | n/a | 91.00 | Coca-Cola is held. Conviction recovered from and the 12-week view is modestly positive, but the stock is expensive on our valuation work, which is why we withdrew the planned top-up last session rather than reinstating it. Re-armed at Gain_ATR 3.00 (exactly the threshold); no deterioration tick - conviction rose 13 points. Trail held at. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 255.46 | HOLD | — | 248.53 | n/a | n/a | 265.22 | Nucor is held. 15.7% in profit with a positive 12-week view; the model went neutral tonight but one quiet print is not a reason to cut a winner. Profit-armed at Gain_ATR 4.66; NO TRADE counter resets to 1, so the 2-consecutive-print tick does not fire. Trail held at. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.56 | HOLD | — | 61.28 | n/a | n/a | 65.19 | Bank of America is held. Second-largest position at, 4% in profit with a positive 12-week view and a steady neutral-to-constructive signal - nothing to act on either way. Not profit-armed (Gain_ATR 2.22). Trail held at. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 181.33 | HOLD | — | 169.18 | n/a | n/a | 128.34 | DaVita has the worst forward view in the book - the model sees 29% downside over 12 weeks - and the position is 22.8% underwater, but it is not below its risk line (6.7% of headroom) and there is no active sell signal, so none of our three sell triggers fires. Half was already cut on 05-Aug. Valuation MoS -3.41 is extreme, but valuation alone never originates a sell (CLAUDE.md S9) and there is no early Exit_Warning code to elevate. Watch the line. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 207.11 | HOLD | — | 210.24⚠ | n/a | n/a | 206.49 | Capital One is a borderline case we are leaving alone. It closed 1.5% below the risk line and the 12-week view has just crossed to negative - but only by 0.3%, which is inside the noise. Not decisive enough to act on. exposure. Watch for the 12wk to deepen or a second decisive close below. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 42.17 | HOLD | — | 41.63 | n/a | n/a | 36.78 | Ally is held. Last session's sell signal has already faded to neutral, the shares rose 0.8%, they are above their risk line, and our valuation work marks the stock UNDERVALUED - which under our rules argues any eventual trim down a size tier, not up. exposure. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 66.57 | HOLD | — | 64.15 | n/a | n/a | 54.31 | The New York Times prints a sell signal but not a strong enough one to act on: after the haircut we apply to this signal family - which has been right only 8% of the time in this book - it falls well short of our action threshold. The shares are also still above their risk line. exposure, 12wk -18.42%. Watch. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 56.95 | HOLD | — | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 50.13 | Kroger prints a sell signal that falls below our action threshold after the family haircut, and the position is worth - too small to be worth a ticket. Valuation marks it UNDERVALUED, which argues down a tier anyway. Sell_Rank #4. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 76.56 | HOLD | — | 81.78⚠ | n/a | n/a | 61.33 | Lennar Class B carries the single strongest sell signal in the entire book - a 52-week breakdown at very high conviction, with the model seeing 20% more downside - and we cannot act on it because the position is worth Sell_Rank #1, adj conviction 86, uncapped by any scorecard haircut (cell is report-only, n=2). Flagged as systemic finding 7. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 77.90 | HOLD | — | 82.64⚠ | n/a | n/a | 61.89 | Same as the Class B shares: second-strongest sell signal in the book, 12-week view 21% lower, worth Sell_Rank #2, adj conviction 82. Not actionable on size. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 123.81 | HOLD | — | 128.36⚠ | n/a | n/a | 94.38 | Constellation clears our action threshold on a strengthening sell signal (adj 76) and has a 12-week view 24% below the current price, but the holding is worth Sell_Rank #3. Not actionable on size. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6088.28 | HOLD | — | 6105.18⚠ | n/a | n/a | 5374.00 | NVR falls just below our action threshold after the family haircut and the position is. Sell_Rank #5, exposure. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 20.50 | HOLD | — | 22.49⚠ | n/a | n/a | 16.15 | Macy's is the deepest break of a risk line in the book - 8.9% below, with the model seeing 21% more downside - and the position is worth below any sensible ticket size. Confusingly the engine also prints a high-conviction oversold-bounce label on the same row. Immaterial either way. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 28.88 | HOLD | — | 27.96 | n/a | n/a | 26.99 | Sirius XM is held. The shares rose 1.2%, the signal is neutral, and the constructive case from the 02-Sep Deutsche Bank upgrade - first positive self-pay subscriber additions in four years, record-low churn - still stands. exposure. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 93.38 | HOLD | — | 91.97 | n/a | n/a | 80.82 | Liberty Live Series A is held. Unlike the Series C shares it is still 1.5% above its risk line, so no trim trigger fires. exposure; 12wk -13.45%. Watch the line. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
167 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.086 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.