Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 24.60 | SELL 50% | 24.60 | 24.87⚠ | n/a | n/a | 22.94 (-6.7%) | Kraft Heinz has now closed below its risk line for a third straight session while its twelve-week outlook points ~7% lower, and the news flow backs the chart up: an 11-Sep analyst downgrade on top of 2026 guidance calling for an organic sales decline and a 16-18% drop in adjusted operating income. This is the largest loss-making risk line in the book, so we take half off and keep half. L2 basis: close vs stop (-1.09%, -0.42 ATR), 3rd consecutive break, close below EMA200, Target_12Week = -6.75%. Position - largest dollar bleed in the book. Engine prints NoTrade cv0 so there is no; 50% follows the book's first-carded-L2 tier (MCO 09-10 precedent). Valuation FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.618 - no tier bump either way. Catalyst-aware hold does NOT block: the 14-Sep Nasdaq->NYSE listing transfer is mechanical (ticker unchanged, S&P membership unaffected) and the exception for a decisive stop-loss break applies regardless. Balance of keeps the line; re-fire the remainder on a 4th consecutive break. Targets: engine prints no Target_Price on a NoTrade row so 1wk/4wk are n/a; next-session model band -is degenerate (+/-22%) and is ignored - logged as a systemic finding. · news |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 97.36 | SELL 50% | 97.36 | 98.69⚠ | n/a | n/a | 83.54 (-14.2%) | Liberty Live has traded below its risk line for five straight sessions with a twelve-week view around 14% lower and no valuation anchor to lean on - the signal has qualified for an exit every session and has been passed over four times for want of a slot. We stop deferring and cut half. L2 basis: close vs stop (-1.35%, -0.51 ATR), 5th consecutive break, Target_12Week = -14.19%, NoTrade cv0 x4. Position FIFTH deferral closed per L3/US-1 and the 09-10 promise ('carded exit on the next EOD'). Half rather than the original 09-03 89% card because the break NARROWED this session (-1.86% -> -1.35%) and the close reclaimed EMA200 on a +0.53% day - take the escalating ladder, not the whole line. Balance keeps the stop; re-fire the remainder on any further close below. Valuation is NA (negative, no FV/sh) so no amplify either way. No company news on either approved source. 1wk/4wk n/a - NoTrade row prints no Target_Price; next-session model band -. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 214.06 | SELL 30% | 214.06 | 205.84 | 216.64 (+1.2%) | 222.66 (+4.0%) | 253.10 (+18.2%) | Chevron is our best position, up over a quarter on cost and stretched ten ATR above it, and it has just printed an RSI divergence into a record high. We bank the minimum tier - 30% - and stay long the other 70%, because the case for the name is intact: Piper Sandler lifted its target to a Street-high analysts rate it Strong Buy, and management is guiding to a tight oil market. Taking a slice of a ten-ATR gain is risk discipline, not a change of view. ADR-0012: PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 10.43, +26.51% on cost) + fire tick (a) RSI_DIV on the same row = 1 tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%. G1 softening does NOT apply (signal is FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, not BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_*, and cv69 < 80). Tick (b) not fired - per the 09-10 ruling a flip to/from NoTrade cv0 is governed by (d), not (b); (c) not fired (T12 = 1.182x close); (d) not fired. News classified OVERRIDES and applied as a DEMOTE: it caps the trim at the minimum tier and blocks any valuation bump - it does not cancel a mandatory profit-take. Valuation FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.868 (not <= -3) so no bump anyway; 12wk < DCF so no DCF-anchor warning. Balance, trail stays. Estimates use f=0.30 (calib_1w = -0.086, degenerate, L5, 12th consecutive session). · news |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 29.15 | NO ACTION | 29.15 | 27.96 | n/a | n/a | 27.48 (-5.7%) | Sirius XM flipped back to a sell print and ranks fifth on the sell list, but we are staying long: the 2-Sep Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy with the target raised from to - on the first positive self-pay net additions in four years, record-low 1.4% churn and the exclusive YouTube digital-audio advertising partnership - remains the governing view, and the stock is trading well clear of its risk line. Standing news override first applied 09-02 and carried every session since; its recorded re-arm is a DECISIVE CLOSE BELOW and the close is, +4.3% above the stop and +10.8% above EMA200. Signal STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv65 + FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell bias +1 = adj 66 clears the floor on merit, and the trail is choppy (SSELL-RED -> AVOID -> NoTrade -> SSELL-RED). of would-be bleed deferred; ledgered optional so the counterfactual grader prices the override. Re-arm unchanged: close below. · news |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6160.76 | NO ACTION | 6160.76 | 6105.18 | n/a | n/a | 5422.51 (-12.0%) | NVR keeps printing the cleanest sell signal in the book - four straight sessions - but the position is three shares, so acting on it would cost more in slippage than it saves. Stable STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75 x4, Sell_Rank #4, +1 bias = adj 76, 12wk = -11.98%, close vs stop (above the line). Position = 0.019% of NAV. Ledgered optional so the grader prices the omission. Same treatment as LEN/LEN-B. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 332.27 | HOLD | 331.70 | 314.62 | n/a | 384.92 (+16.0%) | 350.30 (+5.6%) | Apple is the strongest name in the book - highest conviction reading, a rising trend and the engine setting up a fresh buy trigger just above the close - so an RSI divergence alone is not a reason to cut it. We tighten the risk line instead and keep the whole position. PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress 94.85% (Gain_ATR 2.67, +7.66% on cost) with fire tick (a) RSI_DIV present. G1 applied in spirit and NOT by letter: the gate's family list names BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_* and this row is AnticipationUp_VCP, but every G1 condition holds - cv93 (>=80) and RISING, Order_Type 'Buy Stop @ ' with Entry_Distance_ATR -0.06, close vs EMA200, Target_12Week = +5.4%. Tier-1 code on a trending, high-conviction name -> trail-raise, not trim (the NBIS protection). ASSUMPTION STATED: the family-list gap is logged as a systemic finding. G2 independently suppresses the valuation amplify (MoS -3.062 would bump a tier, but T12 far exceeds DCF = unreliable anchor). Trail: 2.0x ATR chandelier =, BELOW the carried, so the carried stop stands as the tighter line. Re-assess on a conviction collapse or a close below. |
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 62.69 | HOLD | — | 61.28 | n/a | n/a | 65.20 | Bank of America is armed on profit progress with no deterioration tick - conviction is rising and the twelve-week view still points higher, so we hold the full position and keep the tighter risk line. PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress 96.15% (+4.26% on cost); no other Exit_Warning code, conv (up), T12 = 1.040x close, no repeated NoTrade. Mandatory trail-raise resolves to the carried (2.0x ATR chandelier is wider). - largest position in the book. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 88.29 | HOLD | — | 86.81 | n/a | n/a | 91.29 | Coca-Cola is armed on gain but nothing has deteriorated enough to justify taking money off - hold and keep the tighter stop. PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 3.60, +4.93%); conviction eased, a fall of 8, well short of the 20-point collapse that fires tick (b); T12 = 1.034x close so the forward view is alive. Trail resolves to the carried (chandelier is wider).. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 292.71 | HOLD | — | 280.81 | n/a | n/a | 301.16 | VeriSign is armed and still improving - conviction has risen four sessions running - so there is nothing to fire a trim. Hold, trail. PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 5.19, +14.15%, T12_Progress 97.19%); no second Exit_Warning code, conv ->, T12 = 1.029x close. Trail resolves to the carried (chandelier is wider). - small but the book's 2nd-best percentage gain. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 259.43 | HOLD | — | 248.53 | n/a | n/a | 270.17 | Nucor is armed on a 17.5% gain with no deterioration tick; hold and trail. PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 5.22, T12_Progress 96.02%); only code on the row is PROFIT_ARMED itself, conv (recovered), T12 = 1.041x close. Trail resolves to the carried (chandelier is wider).. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 338.50 | HOLD | — | 333.68 | n/a | n/a | 290.50 | Alphabet rallied 1.77% and reclaimed its risk line, and the sealed ad-tech opinion unseals on 16-Sep - we hold through the event rather than trade ahead of the text. Close back above the stop (it was grazing it on 09-10); NoTrade cv0, negative 12wk but no stop break, so no L2 origination. Catalyst-aware hold: redaction-motion deadline 16-Sep (parent horizon, -1.93 ATR band, the largest single-name exposure in the window) plus FOMC the same afternoon. Reduced to by today's executor fill of the 08-25 card.. |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 335.45 | HOLD | — | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 285.89 | Same book, same event as the A shares: hold through the 16-Sep ad-tech unsealing. Close (+1.53%) is 4.8% above the stop; NoTrade cv0, no break, no origination.. |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 338.25 | HOLD | — | 329.22 | n/a | n/a | 313.18 | Chubb's sell signal has not returned since the 09-09 card was withdrawn and the stock sits comfortably above its risk line - nothing to do. NoTrade cv0 x2, close is +2.7% above the stop and above EMA200. 12wk is negative but with no stop break there is no L2 basis (CLAUDE.md section 9 - valuation never originates). Val UNDERVALUED MoS +0.008.. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 474.95 | HOLD | — | 450.30 | n/a | n/a | 449.07 | Moody's half-position was sold at today's open per last night's card; the balance holds above its re-based risk line. Filled @ (executor, 09-12). Close (+1.62%) vs re-based stop - no break, so the L2 pair does not re-fire on the remainder. 12wk = -5.4%; OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -0.988 amplifies nothing on its own. Balance /. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 208.30 | HOLD | — | 210.24⚠ | n/a | n/a | 204.28 | Capital One is a whisker below its risk line with a twelve-week view barely negative - too marginal to act on, and it closed higher on the session. Close vs stop = -0.92% / -0.40 ATR (a graze), 12wk = -1.93%, close still ABOVE EMA200, session +0.57%. AVOID cv59 + 1 bias = adj 60, below the 65 floor. Promote on a decisive break or a second consecutive close below with a widening 12wk.. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 181.55 | HOLD | — | 169.18 | n/a | n/a | 129.94 | DaVita is the book's worst position on cost but it is trading above its risk line, so there is no valid basis to sell it - a bad mark is not a sell signal. Close vs stop (+7.3% above), NoTrade cv0. 12wk = -28.4% and FAIR_VALUE MoS -3.468 would amplify a signal-based sell, but neither originates one (CLAUDE.md section 9). -22.72% on cost, Watch the line. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 42.07 | HOLD | — | 41.63 | n/a | n/a | 36.53 | Ally's sell print faded to nothing and the stock is holding just above its risk line and its long-term average - no action. NoTrade cv0 x2, close vs stop (+1.1%), marginally below EMA200. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.087, which would argue any future trim DOWN a tier.. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 66.88 | HOLD | — | 64.15 | n/a | n/a | 54.74 | The Times position was cut to a stub by today's executor fill; what is left is too small to trade and the signal is below the action floor anyway. Filled @ (executor, 09-12), remain = AVOID cv61 + 1 = adj 62 < 65 floor; close above the stop. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 58.49 | HOLD | — | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 52.47 | Kroger prints a liquidity-gate failure and the position is - nothing actionable. NoTrade_Reason verbatim: 'Liquidity gate failed'. Close (+2.70%) above the stop; UNDERVALUED MoS +0.032.. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 79.60 | HOLD | — | 82.64⚠ | n/a | n/a | 62.53 | Lennar has the second-cleanest sell signal in the book but the position is - below any sensible trade size. Stable STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75, Sell_Rank #2, adj 76, 12wk = -21.4%, close vs stop (-3.68% break). = 0.003% of NAV. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 78.27 | HOLD | — | 81.78⚠ | n/a | n/a | 62.06 | Same signal as the A shares, nine shares held. Stable STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75, Sell_Rank #3, adj 76, 12wk = -20.7%, close vs stop (-4.29% break).. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 122.45 | HOLD | — | 128.36⚠ | n/a | n/a | 92.14 | Constellation is well below its risk line with a poor forward view, but is not a trade. AVOID cv63 + 1 = adj 64 < floor, close vs stop (-4.60% break), 12wk = -24.8%.. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 22.08 | HOLD | — | 22.49⚠ | n/a | n/a | 17.71 | Macy's jumped 7.71% on the session and is still below its risk line, but is immaterial. NoTrade cv0, close vs stop (-1.82%), 12wk = -19.8%.. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 93.98 | HOLD | — | 91.97 | n/a | n/a | 80.59 | The A shares sit 2.2% above their re-based risk line, so unlike the C shares there is no break to act on - hold, watch the line. Close (+0.64%) vs stop; NoTrade cv0 x4; 12wk = -14.2%; valuation NA. Sibling LLYVK is being cut 50% tonight - do NOT extend that card to this line without its own break. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
170 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.086 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.