Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 59.47 | SELL 30% | 59.47 | 58.50 | n/a | n/a | 59.57 (+0.2%) | Bank of America broke decisively through its trailing risk line on a 5% drop after its CEO guided trading revenue flat and investment-banking fees down 10-20%, and the model's twelve-week view is now flat. It is the book's largest position, so we take the minimum 30% off and keep the rest on a tighter line. Close vs trail = -2.95% / -1.07 ATR on 2.1x volume; engine NoTrade cv0 'Liquidity gate failed' (gate artifact on a mega-cap - systemic finding). Target_12Week = +0.17% (dead view, <1.02x). ASSUMPTION: flat 12wk + >1 ATR break of the book's own stop treated as the risk-defined exit; minimum tier because 12wk is not negative and close is 6.2% above EMA200. Not a profit-take: Unreal -1.10%, disarmed. OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -0.454 - no tier change. x 30% =. Balance re-based stop (09-14 low - 0.25 ATR); next rung: close below -> SELL 50% of balance. 1wk/4wk n/a (no Target_Price on NoTrade row); f=0.30 (calib_1w -0.078). · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 341.85 | SELL 30% | 341.85 | 330.89 | n/a | n/a | 318.53 (-6.8%) | Chubb is printing a strong reduce signal again with a twelve-week view ~7% lower, but it screens as undervalued and the last identical signal faded within a day, so we trim only the minimum and keep 70%. STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv73 FailedBreakout_Down_20D (+1) -> adj 74, Sell_Rank #6, engine Portion 88.52% (bleed). Late-flip (SSELL-RED 77 -> NT -> NT -> SSELL-RED 73); 09-09 card withdrawn 09-10. UNDERVALUED MoS +0.008 -> minimum tier. +1.06% session, above stop and EMA200. Counterfactual optional_trim median 1wk -0.57% (n=161) argues against zero. x 30% =. Balance, stop re-based; next rung: 2nd consecutive REDUCE >= cv65 or close < -> 50% of balance. 1wk/4wk n/a (no Target_Price on REDUCE row); 12wk = -6.82%. · news |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 24.27 | SELL ALL | 24.27 | 24.87⚠ | 24.23 (-0.2%) | 24.15 (-0.5%) | 22.27 (-8.2%) | Kraft Heinz closed below its risk line for a fourth straight session - wider than when we sold half - and its twelve-week outlook has slipped to ~8% lower, so we exit the remaining position as the prior card planned. L2: close vs stop = -2.41% / -0.91 ATR (widened from -1.09%), 2nd close below EMA200, Target_12Week = -8.24%; position -4.34% on cost. Engine AVOID cv52 RallySell_BearTrend (-8 -> adj 44), so origination is L2 not signal. FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.618 - no tier change. Escalation ladder completes (09-11: half now, balance on next break). First NYSE session - mechanical. 1wk (f=0.30), 4wk (Target_Price), 12wk. · news |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 333.08 | NO ACTION | — | 320.36 | n/a | n/a | 356.50 | Apple remains the book's strongest, highest-conviction holding with a positive twelve-week view and an iPhone launch weekend ahead, so we raise the protective stop rather than cut the winner. PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 3.08, T12 93.4%) + RSI_DIV = tick (a); signal FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cv90 is outside G1's literal family list - G1 applied in spirit (cv>=80, Mostly_Aligned, +15.1% over EMA200, 12wk = +7.0%), catalyst-aware hold (iPhone 18 Pro first retail weekend 18-Sep). G2 suppresses valuation (12wk >> DCF). OPTIONAL untaken 30% = ledgered for counterfactual grading. Chandelier - 2x7.93 =. Re-arm: second tick -> SELL 50%. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 206.68 | NO ACTION | — | 210.24⚠ | n/a | n/a | 199.12 | Capital One has closed below its risk line twice with a worsening twelve-week view, which qualifies it for a half trim, but it lost the third sell slot to larger positions tonight; it becomes the first sell tomorrow if it stays below the line. Close vs = -1.69% / -0.79 ATR (2nd consecutive), 12wk = -3.66% (from -1.93%), close below EMA200. OPTIONAL untaken 50% = / ESCALATION: DISPOSE #1 next EOD if close <. |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Cl A | 349.39 | NO ACTION | — | 333.68 | n/a | n/a | 309.80 | Alphabet rose 3% as AI megacaps rallied, the reduce print is a one-session flip that faded last time, and a court deadline lands in two sessions - we hold through the event. STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv70 (+ late-flip; close above stop and EMA200. 12wk = -11.3%. OPTIONAL untaken engine reduce 88.52% ledgered. RE-ARM: decisive close below after 16-Sep, or confirmed lower high. · news |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Cl C | 345.71 | NO ACTION | — | 320.20 | n/a | n/a | 304.00 | Same call as the A shares: a one-session reduce flip on a +3% AI-led rally, with the ad-tech deadline two sessions out - hold through the event. STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv70 (+; close above stop. 12wk = -12.1%. OPTIONAL untaken 88.52% ledgered. RE-ARM: decisive close below after 16-Sep. · news |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 212.17 | HOLD | — | 208.07 | n/a | n/a | 249.66 | Armed (Gain_ATR 8.97, +25.4%) but no tick: NT flip governed by (d), prints not consecutive; 12wk = 1.177x close. Chandelier - 2x4.79 =. One more NT print on 09-15 fires tick (d) -> 30% profit-take on the-sh balance. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 298.60 | HOLD | — | 287.69 | n/a | n/a | 312.95 | Armed (Gain_ATR 5.52), HOLD cv93 AnticipationUp_VCP, no tick. Chandelier - 2x7.65 =. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 89.35 | HOLD | — | 87.69 | n/a | n/a | 92.91 | Armed (Gain_ATR 3.90), HOLD cv65, no tick. Chandelier (10d high) - 2x1.34 =. |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 254.63 | HOLD | — | 253.64 | n/a | n/a | 262.17 | Armed (Gain_ATR 4.57), HOLD cv56, -12 < 20), no tick. Chandelier - 2x7.41 = (0.4% below close - tight by construction). |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 41.94 | HOLD | — | 41.63 | n/a | n/a | 36.25 | NT cv0 x; close only 0.74% above stop; 12wk = -13.6%. L2 fires on first close below. |
| DVA | DaVita Inc | 189.32 | HOLD | — | 169.18 | n/a | n/a | 142.47 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv64 RallySell_BearTrend (-8) -> adj 56, below floor; close 11.9% above stop; 12wk -24.7%, MoS -3.47 do not originate (CLAUDE.md s). |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 477.93 | HOLD | — | 450.30 | n/a | n/a | 450.03 | NT cv0 x2; close >; 12wk -5.8%; not armed (-2.18%) so tick (d) n/a. |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 29.37 | HOLD | — | 27.96 | n/a | n/a | 28.00 | HOLD cv57 (from SSELL-RED 65); standing DB-upgrade news override; close > re-arm. |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 98.86 | HOLD | — | 98.69 | n/a | n/a | 85.31 | Balance; close reclaimed (+0.18%). Next close below -> sell balance. |
| LLYVA | Liberty Live Group Ser A | 95.81 | HOLD | — | 91.97 | n/a | n/a | 82.90 | NT cv0; close >; 12wk = -13.5%. No break. |
| M | Macy's Inc | 22.58 | HOLD | — | 22.49 | n/a | n/a | 18.69 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv76 Sell_Rank #2; / - immaterial. |
| LEN | Lennar Corp Cl A | 79.99 | HOLD | — | 82.64⚠ | n/a | n/a | 62.67 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75 Sell_Rank #; breach -3.21%; / - immaterial. |
| LEN-B | Lennar Corp Cl B | 78.67 | HOLD | — | 81.78⚠ | n/a | n/a | 62.26 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv78 Sell_Rank #1; breach -3.80%; / - immaterial. |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 6299.56 | HOLD | — | 6105.18 | n/a | n/a | 5632.77 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75 Sell_Rank #4; / - immaterial. Close > carried stop. |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Cl A | 125.00 | HOLD | — | 128.36⚠ | n/a | n/a | 95.09 | STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv75 Sell_Rank #5; breach -2.62%; / - immaterial. |
| NYT | New York Times Co Cl A | 70.34 | HOLD | — | 64.15 | n/a | n/a | 60.29 | AVOID cv0 NoSignal; close >;. |
| KR | Kroger Co | 60.91 | HOLD | — | 54.87 | n/a | n/a | 57.13 | AVOID cv0 NoSignal; close >;. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
173 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.078 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
46 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.