Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 87.12 | SELL 50% | 87.12 | 85.95 | 87.19 (+0.1%) | 87.36 (+0.3%) | 87.83 (+0.8%) | Coca-Cola closed through the stop we set last week (vs) the same day the strong-sell print faded, and the model's 12-week view has flattened to (+0.8%), so the pre-committed second rung fires: sell half the balance and keep the rest on a tighter rung. The business is fine (volume +5%, raised guidance) but the move has stalled and the stock is fully priced against its cash-flow anchor. OPS: 09-18 RE-ARM rung 'close below -> SELL 50% of the balance' FIRED (-0.49 ATR, outside the -0.4 graze band). ADR-0012 armed (T12_Progress 99.2) + tick (c) FIRED (T12 < 1.02x close); tick (b) = -19, misses. Two bases -> 50% (profit_take_2 tier via rung). Signal now AVOID 49 RallySell_BearTrend (+5 cell), below floor on its own - the rung + tick originate. MoS -2.09 no tier bump. Balance; new rung (close - 1 ATR, below EMA50) -> sell the balance. 12wk exceeds DCF anchor. · news |
| CB | Chubb Ltd | 337.26 | SELL 30% | 337.26 | 331.74 | 334.96 (-0.7%) | 329.60 (-2.3%) | 314.29 (-6.8%) | Chubb has now printed a strong-sell three sessions running on the book's most reliable exit pattern, with the 12-week view at (-6.8%), so we take another slice - but only the minimum, because on our valuation it is modestly cheap and a quality insurer. OPS: stable REDUCE SSR -> 66, FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell +3 (n=59, hit_1w.636) -> adj 69, clears 65. Engine 88.52%; stable-REDUCE 50% argued DOWN one tier to 30% by UNDERVALUED (MoS +0.01, selling cheap - trim the minimum). Third cut (30% 09-14, 50% 09-17). Close vs rung not breached. Balance; rung retained (model lower, never lower a stop) -> close below sells 50% of the balance. · news |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Group Ser C | 98.38 | SELL 50% | 98.38 | 94.35 | 96.94 (-1.5%) | 93.57 (-4.9%) | 83.95 (-14.7%) | Liberty Live (Series C) has now closed below its stop two sessions in a row with the model's 12-week view at (-14.7%) and the engine stuck on no-trade for an eighth session; that combination is this book's standing exit rule, and last EOD we promised it the next slot. Sell half. OPS: L2 (stop-break + negative 12wk) - 09-18 close = -0.90 ATR decisive; 09-21 close still below (-0.12 ATR). Pledged 09-18 'first in line next EOD'. Valuation NA (no fairvalue row), val_adj 0; NoTrade|sell cell -1 not applied (L2 is its own basis). L3: no more re-recommending. Balance; new rung (close - 1.5 ATR) -> sell the balance. LLYVA (close vs stop) not breached. · news |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 242.40 | NO ACTION | 242.40 | 253.64⚠ | 241.81 (-0.2%) | 240.44 (-0.8%) | 236.52 (-2.4%) | Nucor is now well below its stop with a negative 12-week view and has given back most of its gain, but at it is displaced by the three larger exits for the third straight session. OPS: L2 FIRED (close vs stop = -1.22 ATR; T12 < close) + ADR-0012 tick (c) FIRED; tick (b) not counted (NO TRADE label artifact). 50% =. Displaced by the <=3 cap on dollar bleed (KO, CB, LLYVK). Takes a slot next EOD if still below. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 203.67 | NO ACTION | 203.67 | 208.07⚠ | 206.02 (+1.2%) | 211.51 (+3.8%) | 227.19 (+11.5%) | Chevron slipped through its trailing stop and its signal conviction collapsed, so the profit-take rule fires on a small slice, but at it is displaced by larger exits tonight. OPS: armed (Gain_ATR 4.99), tick (b) FIRED (conv = -24); close vs trail = -0.87 ATR; 12wk still positive so no L2. 1 tick -> profit_take_1 30% =. Displaced by the cap; next EOD candidate if the trail stays broken. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 467.22 | HOLD | 467.22 | 450.30 | n/a | n/a | 414.22 (-11.3%) | Moody's still prints a strong-sell (3rd session) but we halved it at this morning's open and the stop rung has not broken, so we hold the balance on the rung rather than re-sell the same signal a day later. OPS: SSR -> 69, adj 72; balance; close vs rung -> close below sells the balance. |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 204.92 | HOLD | 204.92 | 197.34 | n/a | n/a | 184.45 (-10.0%) | Capital One flipped back to a strong-sell (cv75) after a HOLD 86 print; the book already halved it on 09-16 and the rung is intact, so a single flip-flopping print does not earn a slot over three larger exits. OPS: HOLD 46 -> HOLD 86 -> SSR 75 = late-flip / flip-flop; 30% would be. Next: 2nd consecutive SSR or close below -> SELL 50% of balance. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
194 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.735 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.