Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| BAC | Bank of America Corp | 56.20 | SELL 50% | 56.20 | 54.75 | 55.37 (-1.5%) | 53.42 (-4.9%) | 47.87 (-14.8%) | Bank of America closed below the rung we set (vs) and slipped under its 200-day average, and the model's 12-week view is now (-14.8%). The engine has printed no-trade for six sessions while the price ground down, and the whole bank group is de-risking after the CEO's investment-banking fee warning and a 5% 10-year yield. Sell half. OPS: L2 + US-1 (NO-TRADE bleed) + close < EMA200 with negative 12wk (trend-exit contrast case). Rung breach -0.38 ATR is shallow (inside the -0.4 graze band on its own); the EMA200 + neg-12wk trend exit carries it. Largest dollar bleed in the book. Valuation OVERVALUED_VS_RI MoS -0.34 no tier bump; NoTrade|sell -1 not applied (L2 own basis). Balance; new rung (close - 1 ATR) -> sell the balance. · news |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 469.25 | SELL 50% | 469.25 | 450.30 | 463.96 (-1.1%) | 451.63 (-3.8%) | 416.40 (-11.3%) | Moody's has printed a strong-sell four sessions running (conviction back up to 75) and is closing below both its 50- and 200-day averages, with the 12-week view at (-11.3%). The business is solid (strong Q2) but the trend has turned and the stock is priced above its residual-income anchor. Sell half of the remaining stake. OPS: stable REDUCE SSR ->, FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell +3 (n=60, hit_1w.636) -> adj 78. Close < EMA200 + negative 12wk = trend-exit. Halved at the 09-21 open; the 09-21 EOD held on the rung to avoid re-selling a day later - a 4th print plus the EMA200 break is new information. MoS -0.96 no tier bump. Balance; rung retained (model) -> close below sells the balance. · news |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | 245.66 | SELL 50% | 245.66 | 237.23 | 244.57 (-0.4%) | 242.03 (-1.5%) | 234.76 (-4.4%) | Nucor has sat below its stop for four sessions after guiding Q3 earnings below the Street, and the model's 12-week view is below the close. It has been pushed out by bigger exits three times; we promised it the next slot, so sell half now. OPS: L2 (close vs stop = -0.95 ATR decisive; T12 < close) + ADR-0012 tick (c). L3/US-1: 4th session displaced, stop re-recommending. Chosen over ALLY for slot #3 despite ALLY's larger $: NUE's break is decisive, ALLY's is a -0.35 ATR graze. Balance; new rung (close - 1 ATR) -> sell the balance. · news |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 39.07 | NO ACTION | 39.07 | 39.44⚠ | 38.16 (-2.3%) | 36.02 (-7.8%) | 29.93 (-23.4%) | Ally closed just below its rung with a sell-reduce print and a steeply negative 12-week view, but the break is shallow and the name was already cut twice; at it is displaced by the three exits tonight. OPS: SELL - REDUCE 57 (below floor alone); close vs rung = -0.35 ATR graze; below EMA200; 12wk -23.4%. UNDERVALUED argues 50% -> 30% =. RE-ARM: close <= (-0.4 ATR) or SSR >= 65 -> takes a slot. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 202.41 | NO ACTION | 202.41 | 208.07⚠ | 204.18 (+0.9%) | 208.31 (+2.9%) | 220.10 (+8.7%) | Chevron is a winner (+13%) sitting below its trailing stop for a 2nd session, but conviction recovered and the 12-week view is still +8.7%, so no profit-take tick fires today. OPS: armed (Gain_ATR 5.02); tick (b) no; (c) T12 > 1.02x close; close vs trail = -1.19 ATR. Displaced; 30% = if a tick fires or the model stop breaks. |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 88.61 | HOLD | 88.61 | 85.95 | n/a | n/a | 89.58 (+1.1%) | Coca-Cola re-printed a strong-sell but we sold half this morning at and it closed higher at, well above the rung, so we hold the balance on the rung. OPS: SSR 65 adj 68; 12wk (+1.1%); re-selling an executed action the same day is barred. |
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 339.75 | HOLD | 339.75 | 326.25 | n/a | n/a | 379.38 (+11.7%) | Apple is the book's largest winner (+10%) and still carries a +11.7% 12-week view; it printed no-trade after a HOLD 68, which is not yet a deterioration tick, so we raise the trail rather than trim. OPS: armed (Gain_ATR 4.61, T12_Progress 89.6), no tick fired (NO TRADE 0 not counted as (b); (d) needs 2 consecutive - next NT fires it). Chandelier 2.0 ATR: - 2x = (from). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
197 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.735 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.