Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc | 337.02 | SELL 30% | 337.02 | 326.25 | 340.87 (+1.1%) | 349.85 (+3.8%) | 375.52 (+11.4%) | Apple is the book's largest winner (+9.2%, 4.3 ATR above cost) but the model has printed no-trade for two sessions running, which fires the pledged profit-take; we bank 30% and trail the rest. OPS: ADR-0012 armed (Gain_ATR 4.28, T12_Progress 89.8) + tick (d) 2 consecutive NO TRADE (09-22, 09-23). MoS -3.14 would bump but G2 suppresses the amplify (T12 >> DCF). Balance on trail (chandelier lower - kept). News neutral: ATH on 09-22 then faded; UBS Neutral vs BofA Buy. · news |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corp | 196.10 | SELL 50% | 196.10 | 190.74 | 193.56 (-1.3%) | 187.62 (-4.3%) | 170.67 (-13.0%) | Capital One closed below its rung under a sell-reduce print, below its 200-day average, with a 12-week view of -13%, so the pledged half-exit fires. OPS: SR 57 BreakdownDown_20D (no actionable cell); basis = trend exit (close < EMA200 + neg 12wk) + pledged 09-22 re-arm; rung breach only -0.23 ATR. MoS -0.25 no tier. Balance, new rung (close - 1 ATR). |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | 38.58 | SELL 30% | 38.58 | 37.52 | 37.65 (-2.4%) | 35.46 (-8.1%) | 29.23 (-24.2%) | Ally has closed below its stop for a second session (now -0.81 ATR), is on its third sell-side print, sits below its 200-day average and carries a -24% 12-week view; we cut 30% because the valuation reads cheap. OPS: SR 59; pledged 09-22 re-arm (close <=) hit at. UNDERVALUED argues the model 49% down one tier to 30%. Balance, new rung (close - 1 ATR). |
| KO | Coca-Cola Co | 88.09 | NO ACTION | 88.09 | 85.95 | 88.15 (+0.1%) | 88.29 (+0.2%) | 88.70 (+0.7%) | Coca-Cola re-printed the same strong-sell (65) it carried when we halved it at the 09-22 open; with a flat 12-week view there is little downside to step out of, so the further trim is ledgered as displaced rather than re-selling an unchanged print. OPS: armed (Gain_ATR 3.02) + tick (c) T12 < 1.02x close; SSR 65 adj 68. 30% =. Rung intact - close below sells the balance. |
| VRSN | VeriSign Inc | 293.28 | NO ACTION | 293.28 | 293.43⚠ | 295.71 (+0.8%) | 301.37 (+2.8%) | 317.56 (+8.3%) | VeriSign is armed (+14%) and has printed no-trade twice, which fires a profit-take, but at it lost the cap to larger cuts; the trail sits a hair above the close. OPS: tick (d); trail graze -0.02 ATR; close below (-1 ATR) takes a slot. |
| MCO | Moody's Corp | 473.85 | HOLD | 473.85 | 450.30 | n/a | n/a | 423.65 (-10.6%) | Moody's was halved again at the 09-23 open and closed higher at on an unchanged strong-sell 75, so the balance holds on the rung as planned. OPS: 5th SSR print, no new information vs 09-22. |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | 205.51 | HOLD | 205.51 | 208.07⚠ | n/a | n/a | 225.61 (+9.8%) | Chevron is armed (+15%) and bounced +1.5% back toward its trail; conviction is unchanged and the 12-week view is +9.8%, so no profit-take tick fires. OPS: close vs trail -0.54 ATR (3rd session); 30% = if a tick fires or the model stop breaks. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
200 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.735 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
84 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.